Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 3

[Barracker]

Welcome to thread 3 of the daily updates.

Resource links:
Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday

Thank you to all contributors for their factual, data driven, and civil discussions.

4 in NI so thats 891 in total.
Heartbreaking.

7,988 combined figure for today.☹️ Yet there are threads on MN about breaking rules of lockdown. I despair. Rough estimate of those passed away in care homes and at home that are not included as they did not either get tested or awaiting post mortem to see if Covid was involved about 8-10,000.

Since outbreak I should add for last figure of my post.

There is good evidence that being able to synthesise vitamin D was a pressure to evolve light skin

www.nasw.org/article/vitamin-d-levels-determined-how-human-skin-color-evolved

Looking at Worldometer, Belgium and The Netherlands are showing very high figures for the last few days. They seem to be forgotten, but if you put countries in order of deaths per million population (and ignore the outliers of San Marino and Andorra), they are lying 3rd and 5th, with Switzerland 6th.

Interestingly Sweden are 8th on that list, with Norway being well down in the 20s. So the Swedish system is looking even less wise.

My Dgd was given vitamin k when in hospital to help her when she had relapse of ITP a couple of months ago. ITP us an auto immune blood disorder she contracted last year after catching an unknown virus and it caused her immune system to turn on itself and kill all her platelets which help with clotting if the blood. She us 18 and has had 3 relapses in 9 months and has adult version of it. She will need her spleen removed if she has another bad bleed we were told in March but no hope of getting it done until the crisis is over. Think some Covid victims are having similar problems with their immune systems too I believe. Think vitamin k aids blood clotting but not sure.

That's frightening, sos
Best wishes your DD stays healthy and avoids a relapse 💐

DGD, sorry

NHS England has recorded 765 new deaths in hospital from coronavirus.
It said that 140 of them occurred yesterday, while 568 took place between 1 April and 7 April.
The remaining 57 deaths took place in March, including two on 19 March and one on 16 March

How on earth can you see trends when the figures are from such a long period of time. I wonder whether anyone is doing a backtracked graph to show deaths on the day they actually happened.

"Only" 140 yesterday!!!!

Corona crisis: German Military delivers ventilators to Great Britain

Evidently Boris asked other leaders for ventilators, not just Trump.
Worrying he felt the need to do so, as obviously countries would find it difficult to spare any atm

https://www.en24.news/c24/2020/04/corona-crisis-bundeswehr-delivers-ventilators-to-great-britain.html

The UK Department of Defense previously urged several NATO partners for help.

After a brief examination, the Defense Ministry of Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer (CDU) approved the request.

Berlin will not charge for the aid
.........
Britain is struggling with rising infections and deaths after a long period of government downplaying virus threats.

The British government does not expect the crisis to peak until next week.

Until then, London needs at least 18,000 ventilators, and there are currently only around 10,000.

The Bundeswehr devices can only fill part of the gap.

Baaaahhhhh, yes Barracker is on this thread - look for her "volcano" graph. It's just for hospital deaths, but is showing significantly more than the daily announced figures.

Thanks bigchoc

Scotland has printed their figures.

www.gov.scot/coronavirus-covid-19/
Scottish test numbers: 9 April 2020
A total of 27,518 people in Scotland have been tested. Of these:

22,561 tests were confirmed negative
4,957 tests were positive
447 patients who tested positive have died
Management information reported by NHS Boards shows:

212 patients were in intensive care last night, with 200 of those having tested positive
There were 1,781 people in Scottish hospitals with either confirmed or suspected COVID-19 (including those in intensive care)

Baaaahhhhh, yes Barracker is on this thread - look for her "volcano" graph. It's just for hospital deaths, but is showing significantly more than the daily announced figures.

Not necessarily. We have some deaths being announced weeks later, but the two sets of figures in fact have to add up to exactly the same total at some point, since they are the same data just one is by 'date of report' and the other is 'date of death', so at some point (the daily announced deaths will exceed the number of people who actually died yesterday. There arent any extra deaths appearing out of nowhere.

@BigChocFrenzy in that context do you think the peak referred to is hospital patients? As opposed to deaths, which means the peak in deaths will be later?

How on earth can you see trends when the figures are from such a long period of time

This. It means pretty much nothing when it's just a randomly assorted release of figures from all over the place instead of an actual record of the day.

Germany have been able to help Italy and France too.
The Independent

Yes, Shoots, but it is artificially making the figures look lower at the moment. I know they'll be added on in the days (and sometimes weeks) to come, but going by the announced figures only, the curve looks much flatter than it is in reality.

If it continues "peak death rate" will actually happen when the figures announced every day are still going up.

can i ask, are deaths because of the coronavirus or could someone who died say of a heart attack but tested positive? or someone who was dying anyway?

@NewAccountForCorona I'm in the Netherlands - testing has increased 4-5 fold over the past few days which explains our higher numbers recently. Netherlands did not test until this week outside hospitals and does not record recoveries. How they measure it here are deaths and ICU admissions, which are falling slightly but early days.

We have what our PM here is calling an "intelligent lockdown" (I'm not sure it's so intelligent) and they are open about embracing the herd immunity strategy - so we locked down around 9 days before the UK (at which point our numbers were nearly identical) but have a bit more freedom in terms of going outside/exercise/local travel/kids under 12 can play together etc. Belgium is much stricter than us yet their numbers are similar, which is interesting in itself.

Of note, 2 studies came out this week (apologies if this has been mentioned up thread) to show that mild infection may not result in immunity. Which messes it all up really!

NQuarz I think the peak refers to deaths, rather than new infections, which would explain the urgency in wanting ventilators now

Whitty talking just now

the NHS hospital figures allow them to see the trends over time. The ONS data is much wider – including care homes and when there isn’t a test involved – so the numbers are expected to be higher but there will be a lag.

The ONS figures therefore give a wider picture, but the NHS figures are useful for day-to-day decision-making.

what do the wise ones on here think about " the NHS figures are useful for day-to-day decision-making" ?

I guess it's a vague remark and allows for factoring in the fact that the deaths are from different dates,so maybe it doesn't mean anything .

Whitty says UK cases only doubling every 6 days now
(I'd have thought it difficult to tell with so little testing)

"the NHS figures are useful for day-to-day decision-making"

Well, if people in care homes are being left to die, then PHE only need the hospital numbers / curvey to plan # ICU resources etc

In fairness, as we've discussed, it wouldn't be a kindness to put many of the frail elderly on ventilators