Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 3

[Barracker]

Welcome to thread 3 of the daily updates.

Resource links:
Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday

Thank you to all contributors for their factual, data driven, and civil discussions.

NHS England has recorded 765 new deaths in hospital from coronavirus. It said that 140 of them occurred yesterday, while 568 took place between 1 April and 7 April. The remaining 57 deaths took place in March, including two on 19 March and one on 16 March

The scary thing here is the current numbers are significantly understating the current number of deaths, as many are clearly still “being processed”. The actual number of deaths that did occur yesterday are clearly many times more than the 140 currently being reported.

Thanks Dulang and Quentin, that's what I thought re the evolution of skin colours or rather the devolution of white skin in the northern hemisphere.

Holick includes a chart in his book on vit d showing how darker skin needs longer in the sun to make the same level of vit D. He uses "types" to describe melatonin content and ability to tan or burn easily or not, and then how much sun is needed to get certain levels of vit d. Someone with darker skin living the the north of Britain - or regularly covering up or working long hours in an office (or hospital!) with no sun exposure, could be more at risk of vit d deficiency without supplementation.

I can't find the chart but this is a good run down on his research and shows some of the findings.

I also think I once read there can be an issue with some people with red/ auburn hair; might have been in his book too.

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3897598/

Have we still not had today's official figures from the DHSC yet?

I actually liked the speech by Dominic Raab today. I'm not his biggest fan but I felt he finally stepped up and was clear and explicit about what we were doing and why and also empathetic to how difficult it is.

I think we are still increasing but it does seem to be at a flatter rate. I had concerns about the talk about schools returning after Easter (but see that's not on the cards!) not because I don't think schools should return but a) I think the social distancing would be too difficult in the classroom but also with parents dropping children off, public transport, school transport etc and it potentially puts 100's of people in contact with each other twice daily in very small areas (there's 6 primaries and 3 secondaries in 2 mile radius of my house!) and I can't see how we can keep the R0 down in that situation and b) because if they had any intention of opening after Easter they shouldn't have cancelled all exams definitely weeks ago.

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/04/09/many-people-may-already-have-immunity-coronavirus-german-study/

“Scientists studying the town at the epicentre of Germany's first major outbreak said they had found antibodies to the virus in people who had shown no symptoms and were not previously thought to have been infected.

Initial results released on Thursday suggest as many as 15 per cent of the town may already have immunity — three times as many as previous estimates.

The findings suggest the mortality rate for the virus in Germany is just 0.37 per cent — five times lower than current estimates.

“This means a gradual relaxation of the lockdown is now possible,” Prof Hendrik Streeck, the virologist leading the study told a press conference.”

It will be interesting to see if this is reflected in other locations.

The assessment may just be that kids are at v v low risk
and that most parents are also at low risk,

whereas closed schools have a high economic cost because then so many parents can't work

So schools might be reopened, at least primary schools - so most parents can go to work - and state that noone will get hassled for leaving 11-year-olds home alone,

but warn people to keep away from GPs for the foreseable future

Then after another month, if no spike, reopen secondary schools too

The summer temperatures are expected to reduce infections to a very low level
If not, we're screwed, because we need those few months of more people working & earning,
before the expected long ramp up over Autumn and winter

That’s really positive!

Or we use contact tracing to avoid another major lockdown in the winter.

Which however requires a level of surveillance that many don't like under any circumstances

Encouraging and I've been hunting more details of the study

Antibody tests for CV aren't reliable yet, because reportedly they give false positives for other Cornaviruses

So maybe those tests involved blood samples and painstakingly examining each one under a microscope or whatever

I also think I once read there can be an issue with some people with red/ auburn hair; might have been in his book too.

As the red headed mother of a red headed daughter, I would assume we cannot get sufficient vit D before burning begins! And thus we are more likely to be indoors/smothered in total sunblock and not outside getting the benefits that our neighbours are enjoying.

*sets phone reminder to take the D gathering dust in the kitchen...

It’s the University of Bonn doing the study

“Scientists from the University of Bonn are testing around 1,000 people from 400 households for antibodies as well as signs of current infection.

Initial results based on around half the tests found 2 per cent of inhabitants are currently infected and 14 per cent had antibodies to the virus. Allowing for overlap that suggests 15 per cent of people in the town now have immunity — compared to the previous estimate of 5 per cent.”

I don’t read German but assume this is covering the same thing
www.berliner-zeitung.de/gesundheit-oekologie/heinsberg-studie-hygiene-mildert-krankheitsverlauf-bei-covid-19-li.80882

If it's the Leopoldina study, that should be published in full on Monday or Tuesday

Oops cross-post. That's another important report expected next week

I speak German and that is the "Covid-19 Case Cluster Study” in the carnival area where CV was first found in Germany
Heinsberg is still a major CV hotspot

What is interesting is that they found that the amount of virus someone receives is critical

• so sounds like viral load again

which fits in with the recent upsurge in official approval for wearing masks here, from RKI (German public health institute) and others
that previously opposed it

(Problem is, no masks available to buy in Germany since the crisis started ! - all reserved for health workers.
So I suppose we'll be making our own)

@Lockheart Nothing on their page yet, but the briefing stated that 7978 have sadly died altogether, an increase of 881 in the last 24 hours and 4344 new cases.

@DuLANGDuLANGDuLANG I think red heads make their own vitamin D!

gingerparrot.co.uk/facts-and-myths-about-red-hair/

@BigChocFrenzy
Thanks for looking at that article. I think there will be some interesting studies coming out as scientists research the outbreak.

• • • DAILY UPDATE * * * Thursday APRIL 9th

Total UK cases: 65,077
New UK cases: 4,344
Total UK Deaths: 881
New UK Deaths: 7,978

Bigchoc the issue I have though is that they are saying lockdown for work would still continue for most business and that people will still be asked to work from home. Of course this information is only coming from reading online and not from our experts. I think if they open they need to make sure it's done with certain restrictions. Staggered starts and finishes and social distancing lining up etc. Or you are just bunging 100's of people together again.

Does anyone have the historical daily death figures of England, NI, Scotland and Wales, please?

I have the England data that was announced going as far back as March 27th, but nothing before that.

That German study is interesting and maybe the first and biggest breakthrough for Europe to find a way out of lockdown so far.

www.thecourier.co.uk/fp/news/politics/scottish-politics/1200709/coronavirus-in-scotland-track-the-spread-in-these-charts-and-maps/

This is good for Scottish data Barracker, don’t have the others.

Barraker hows your amazing volcano coming along? Best graphic I've seen yet re the growth and also showing reporting lag.

This has weekly figures for England & Wales, barracker, by age, sex, region,
but I don't see daily

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales