Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 3

[Barracker]

Welcome to thread 3 of the daily updates.

Resource links:
Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday

Thank you to all contributors for their factual, data driven, and civil discussions.

Thanks Shoots it's clear, informative and polite.

Here's the volcano graph updated today.

Note

• These are Daily, not cumulative deaths. They will eventually reach a peak and decline.
• It compares apples with oranges, (England timestamped, vs entire UK daily stats) please be aware.
• Orange bars represent the UK as a whole; these are the daily UK death stats reported at 2pm.
• No community deaths are included.
• The blue volcano is ONLY England. Each day adds a layer of 'lava' as data is backfilled retrospectively into the day the timestamped death occurred.
• Backfilling tends to be mostly complete after 14 days have passed. The volcano for data this old is more or less the final total of deaths in England on such days.

Data from the the last 14 days continues to be backfilled and remains incomplete until no new layers of 'lava' are added. The last 7 days of the volcano are very incomplete and will continue to rise significantly each day as new layers are added.

To put into perspective, of the 758 England deaths reported today, only 11% of the 758 actually occurred yesterday, 36% were on the 5th, 24% on the 4th etc. What we see each day being reported is a compilation of data that stretches back over several weeks. In other words it lags.

The blue volcano, once it has stopped growing, gives a truer picture of the trajectory, although again, this data ONLY relates to England.

Apologies if already posted

twitter.com/ChrisGiles_/status/1247465885343850497?s=20

Came on here to say a big thank you for all the informative data on this thread - have been following for a while and find it an oasis of factual and calm discussion in a very scary situation.

Thanks pocketem - I spotted that graph today - its the cumulative version of mine. Easier to understand.

Innui That's very interesting but alarming from IHME

• it has UK peaking much later and total deaths to 1 August at 3 x Italy:

UK 66,000 deaths total and peak on 17 April with nearly 3,000 deaths
Italy 20,000 and 27 March - passed

Also has
USA 81,000
France 15,000 and 5 April - passed
Spain 19,000 and 1 April - passed
Germany 9,000 and 19 April

I note all those run out of ICI and hospital bed capacity except Germany, which is projected to have a large spare capacity of everything

• looks like we'll be getting more patients airlifted in from abroad

If those figures are anywhere near correct (BIG if)
looks like Merkel may have been over-cautious and been harder on the economy than necessary,
but she shouldn't get flak from it - maybe at most FDP and AfD

BIG question that IHME and everyone else don't know:
what happens in Autumn 2021 - Autumn 2022 when hopefully vaccine is available
Will we get 2-3 more peaks of similar size in that time, or hopefully much lower

TYPO: Autumn 2020 - Autumn 2021 !

All deaths are tragic, but the UK would do much worse relatively than other countries,
which I had not expected to that extent

I thought the USA would be the real outlier - Trump - but for its population it isn't

I'm wondering if IHME have overlooked something
< clutches at straws >

• • • DAILY UPDATE * * * Tuesday APRIL 7th

Total UK cases: 55,242
New UK cases: 3,634
Total UK Deaths: 6,159
New UK Deaths: 786

I thought UK wide it was in the 900s?

It appears that 68 of today's reported deaths are not included in the totals because . Presumably they'll be in tomorrow's release.

England 758
Scotland 74
Wales 19
NI 3
Total 854

So confusing!

Can someone explain the 854 deaths (nations of UK added up,early afternoon release) Vs the 786 released about 16.00 by the DHSC - of course the press conference always uses the lower figure......

Today’s tested figures exclude Manchester and Leeds due to data processing delays.

Sky News are reporting that the 74 deaths in Scotland do not apply to one singular day hence the misreporting of 854 I believe. Im not sure how the Dept of H&S have allocated that however

That IMHE Report is clearly flawed. For, example the ICU capacity is based on what it was before any new ICU beds were created for covid. I haven't even looked beyond that one obvious point. It also doesn't seem to include ICU beds outside England and Wales.

@BigChocFrenzy
As I posted on the other thread on those figures from Washington - they are based on the ridiculous premise that the entire UK has only 799 icu beds throughout the pandemic.

The UK had 5900 icu beds before the addition of the new Nightingale hospitals.

Here is the figure of 4123 adult icu beds in England Alone in January.

www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/critical-care-capacity/critical-care-bed-capacity-and-urgent-operations-cancelled-2019-20-data/

Of course I would hope the IHME is flawed with regard to U.K. just wondering in what way.

It does give every countries pre Covid ICU capacity eg said Ireland was short ICU beds when we peaked but this wasn’t the case as capacity was increased. So I don’t think the ICU bed capacity it what is differentiating the U.K. in this model.

Innui, if you run the cursor along the graph it has deaths based on excess need compared to capacity. The Icu bed capacity remains 799 throughout the model.

I can only assume a political motive or incompetence.

I'm really confused by new UK cases today. DHSC says 14k tests conducted on 9k people. Also said 208k people had been tested yesterday and 213k today. Which is only 5k people more.

And then 3600 additional positives out of 5k new people tested? That seems very high.

We also have 101,000 adult general and acute beds according to most recent data (obv not all available to CV) whereas that model says 17,000.

Further to my previous post, some more issues.

The ONS death stats cover England and Wales. They thus exclude Scotland & Northern Ireland. The daily headline death stats INCLUDE both of those. www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public

NHS England (England only) publishes very good (in terms of granularity) daily death stats:

www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/ England

These are recorded against 'date of death' and are published at 2pm effective to 5pm the day before

The headline UK stats are reported at 2pm here

www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public

and seem to represent 'all deaths reported between 5pm the day before yesterday and 5pm yesterday by the NHS in England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland'

Therefore this is 'daily reports' that is being broadcast in the news rather than 'daily deaths'. Clearly due to staffing issues these are not the same thing.

For England (source NHS England above), we can see there is in fact a big delay, of the 758 deaths announced between 17:00 5/4/20 and 17:00 6/4/2020, only 81 (11%) deaths occurred on the 6th of April. Thus for today (7th April report) 'deaths' we are actually looking at deaths which mostly occurred on the 4th and 5th of April.

If we look at the individual daily reports (not total deaths to date), then for 2nd April we can see 22 reports in for Sunday 22nd March, 5 more for on the 3rd, 5 on the 4th and 2 on the 6th. So as of 1st April, there were 95 deaths recorded as dying on 22nd March, but that's now up to 129.

If we look at the following Sunday 29th March, we see there are now 556 deaths recorded, which were announced:

7th - 6
6th - 5
5th - 25
4th - 57
3rd - 62
2nd - 130

hence 271 deaths recorded on 30th/31st/1st, and 295 since then

If we look at, say, last Wednesday, the 1st, the reports by day of report:

5pm 31 March to 5pm 1 April (2nd April publication) - 84
1-2 April (3 pub) - 179
2-3 April (4 pub) - 134
3-4 April (5 pub)- 51
4-5 April (6 pub)- 14
5-6 April (7 publication) - 33

If we look at the daily reports then for:

4th April most recent 4 days (3rd, 2nd, 1st, 31st): 99, 199, 134, 26
5th April (4,3,2,1) 97, 181, 114, 51
6th April (5,4,3,2) 70, 188, 69, 25
7th April (6,5,4,3) 81, 272, 179, 90

So for Friday the 3rd the reports go D+0 99, D+1 181, D+2 69, D+3 90 (439)
for Saturday the 4th D+0 97, D+1 188, D+2 179 (464)
for Sunday the 5th D+0 70, D+1 272 (342)

So in general Friday's deaths are most likely (NB not majority) to be reported on Saturday (a day later), which is published on Sunday.

Saturday's deaths are equally likely to be reported on Sunday or Monday.

Sunday's deaths are less likely than usual to be reported the same day.

So for today's report we are including MORE deaths from Friday, Saturday and Sunday than we would on any other day, since it's a Tuesday publication based on Monday's reports, and the normal flow of death reports from is therefore disrupted.

The new reports for yesterday only is 81, which is the best 'first day reports' in a week. But we of course don't know if the 'first day reports' are themselves delayed because of the backlog from previous days.

Authors of that report should be ashamed! How ridiculous.

@Callimanco I was asuming that report was quoting vacant beds, not totals

Does the UK have 5900 vacant beds atm ?

That's vacant ICU beds