Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 3

[Barracker]

Welcome to thread 3 of the daily updates.

Resource links:
Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday

Thank you to all contributors for their factual, data driven, and civil discussions.

Marsha,

If we are at 0.63, we will get case numbers down fast to a very low level.

Then they will very gradually unlock and monitor new cases. Theoretically we could have more freedom and still keep the number around one at that point.

It is far from ideal, and also unsustainable long term, but the best we have to aim for right now.

What concerns me is the seeming lack of big spend on research. I hear of a few 10s of millions here and there but, compared to the hundreds of billions (or even trillions) thrown at the economy, it is chicken feed. And it seems really badly co-ordinated, rather than a global effort.

I don’t understand the lack of a Covid ‘Manhattan project’, even within the U.S or Europe. Treatment and a vaccine are the only real way out (or herd immunity accepting many millions of deaths worldwide).

Surely there will also be people who would have died, for example from seasonal flu, who do not die because they do not catch the critical virus (or those who will not be involved in RTAs and so on) thanks to, stay at home, shielding and distancing measures in place for covid-19? So it's not quite as simple as taking an average year and comparing?

Scotland has now changed its daily reporting to include community and cate home deaths including those “suspected” where Covid is mentioned on death certification.
This hopefully means that their picture is far more accurate although does seem there is still some sort of delay over weekends given the 2 and 2 that were reported and today’s jump to 74.
The weekday figures should start to give a better picture though.
Agree that the total numbers for the UK are completely misleading though and quite frankly, a mess

It's looking like there may be around 854 deaths in today's figures. I'll update properly when they're confirmed.

I'll update my 'volcano' graph later, which plots the backdated, timestamped NHS England data against the daily government announcements.

It's 758 according to Sky News.

758 is England only not U.K. I think

@Barracker
thanks, was that the orange and blue one? It Was very clear to understand 👍

Metro says 854

It’s 854 in the UK but Scotland seems to be higher as changed reporting system

I'm guessing 854 is the UK figure?

854 total UK for today

It was predicted the figures would rise today. Horrible. I see Paris has increased restrictions on movement. I wonder if we will follow suit? Perhaps in cities or urban areas.

Thanks ThatGingerGirl I had a look on the French news, as normally they explain that sort of thing, but there was nothing. I was really hoping it was something like that and not just a sudden change in the situation.

Scotland went from 222 to 296 but that was a bit of a catch-up figure as they were changing over to a new reporting system.

That is horrible, very close to Italy at its worst.

Doesnt it always follow this pattern? Low on Monday then spike on Tuesday (due to reporting or recording over the weekend), then settles more throughout the week?

Does anyone know what the new modelling data referred to here is?
It predicts 66,300 Covid deaths in the U.K. by August.

Coronavirus: Ireland’s infection peak may have passed, toll could hit 400 by August, report forecasts
via The Irish Times
www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/coronavirus-ireland-s-infection-peak-may-have-passed-toll-could-hit-400-by-august-report-forecasts-1.4223043

Actually have seen it is IHME at University of Washington.

covid19.healthdata.org/united-kingdom

Belgium and The Netherlands seem to be showing high numbers from today. They both also had high numbers last Tuesday so there may be a similar lag on reporting over the weekend there.

Sweden also isn't looking as good as last week. They had a big jump in numbers yesterday and another today.

I think the financial times 3 day averages are good graphs to look at to even out some of the reporting fluctuations.

We are not due to peak until at least this weekend based on reports. Therefore, although the number is high, it will get worse - and is not unexpected to anyone who watches the press conferences every day

Why so many here?

Shoots just read your post at 2pm. Thank you so much. That's very clear with great explanations of how you've used data to show your message.

Ok, I get yo7 can't actually work out morality rates this way with any degree of accuracy when taking into account lag that still exists etc.

But, even taking into account low Monday figures and much higher figures today - and including Sunday's reported mortalities the 'average' death per day (uk) for the past 3 days is 638. Which is t a completely steep rise and seems to be remaining static currently.