Anyone else worried about the potential for a 2-tier society if antibody test becomes available?

[Coronacantcope]

I've seen a lot over the past few days about potential certificates enabling those already immune to go about normal life. I know it's all theoretical but...

Is it just me who doesn't think this could possibly work? Because those (particularly young, low risk) who don't have a certificate/immunity are not going to be able to tolerate seeing others resume normal life while they still have to stay in some form of isolation. Even my DP who is high risk said he didn't think he could deal with seeing friends meet up, go to work etc while he stayed indoors. Also careers would suffer amongst those still required to stay home.

We seem to be struggling to get compliance while we're all expected to do it, I think there would be major protests if we asked only some of the population to isolate.

Even if you have had it and are rec9vered you can still mobilise the virusby pick g it up on things you touch for example and then spreading it.
So where as health workers can get back to work, I don't think everyone else with would be able to just resume normal life. Maybe work at a push, but they still are spreaders even if immune themselves.

I really cannot see a society where immune group is allowed a social life, holidays, cinema trips and the rest not.

That had occurred to me too, like a dystopian novel. So I guess we must try and ensure all issues are thought through and all groups represented in discussions/ policy-making....

It is a bit weird. Maybe people will risk getting it.

But it is a good idea still.

I was thinking about that after I posted on the UK holiday thread. We could easily end up in a situation where you're not allowed to travel or go anywhere if you don't have a certificate to say you're vaccinated (no good if there's no vaccination, or it's not widely available) or have antibodies (so you've had to have had it, hopefully as mildly as possible). So some people will be able to take their holidays and the rest of us will have to stay at home in some sort of similar arrangement as now, but it won't apply to everyone. It wouldn't be so bad if it was just for a few weeks but if a vaccine takes years, it will be more than a bit crap and I'd rather take my chance with the virus.

I suspect you'll have to have something like a yellow fever certificate to travel overseas, whatever the restrictions here.

I don't think any of this is going to happen until we are past the peak anyway over the next 2-3 weeks. After that, focus will immediately shift to how we can start to stimulate the economy again without putting the NHS under more pressure. All of this is about managing the strain on the NHS. But as soon as that strain starts to lessen, we will definitely be looking to ease restrictions and allow certain people to return to work.

We aren't going to see a China type scenario where we're all locked down until there are hardly any new cases.

I agree that it will result in people trying to get the virus. I'm not sending DD to nursery although I'm a keyworker so that we can isolate for dp's sake. I could see a scenario where he says just send her and we'll take the risk because he'd rather that than force us all to isolate when others don't have to. It scares me.

It is an incentive. It could be that the young and lower risk will take their chances and older won’t (depending on personality).

I don’t know if I would risk it I have a teen with mild asthma, I know it’s not high risk but I’d need more information from what’s to come to make a decision.

I was saying this to DH earlier when Matt Hancock was talking about this on QT. If that situation arose you would essentially be punishing those who followed all of the rules, only went out once a day, shopped sparingly and didn't get the virus - essentially saying you followed the rules but as you haven't had the virus you are going to have to endure further restrictions while people who maybe didn't (and I know not everyone who catches it will have broken the rules) can go about their business as they please.

I really can't imagine that working as the restricted group would be up in arms.

I think that question needs to be asked though - what exactly would be the purpose of these so called immunity certificates/bands? And how long before there would be a roaring trade on Ebay?

It would be easy to get it though if you felt it unfair. Would you do that Teen? Try to get it?

They’d be linked to ID otherwise yes roaring trade.

Just because you have caught it once doesnt mean you are immune, there is no data on that as of yet, and it is quite possible that any immunity is short term. Some virologists in china have said that there have been alot of cases where people have recovered and after few weeks become cv possitive again. Also there are different corona virus strains going around the world, virus is mutating as it infects more and more people. So you could be catching a new mutated version instead of the older version.

I have just had this discussion with my husband after Matt Hancock said those with immunity might get a certificate or a wrist band. Can you imagine it? Will the rest of us be locked up until a vaccine is developed next year some time?

Yes I don’t see how this can work.
We have followed all guidelines and have only left the house for rural walks in the past 3 weeks. If we haven’t had it, we are unlikely to pick it up from anywhere as we aren’t leaving the house. So do we stay at home indefinitely while those who have had it can go back to normal?

Also, there is such scope for forgery or theft of the immunity certificates.

I have wondered about this too, and also about what you could use to prove who has immunity - I could imagine if it was something like a certificate, there would be people who would want to forge or steal them to get the "privileges" available to immune people. On the other hand, it would be very helpful for people without immunity too to know who did have it, if they needed a carer or doctor, hairdresser or checkout person who wouldn't be likely to infect them, or just want to identify which friends or family can safely keep them company. So it would benefit both groups to know who was immune.

Most virologists said they expect immunity to last a couple of years or maybe more

The 1-2 cases I have heard reported from China of people getting it a 2nd time
were later thought by scientists to be a mistake:
simply due to a false negative test leading to people thinking they were over the virus, which then ramped up again

I was just reading that the antibody tests aren't a great indicator on their own anyway as they may cross react with antibodies to other common coronaviruses.

There's no way this could work in practise as there would be massive incentive for those who are young/needing to work/sick of isolating to try and catch it. As you say - it would also be punishing all those people who followed the rules and made sure they didn't get ill. It's impossible to say what moves the government will make though as it seems they are making it up as they go along. When the economic impact of this really hits I think we'll see some pretty rash/radical decisions made.

I don't really understand people's comments here. Why would you want people to have to suffer unnecessarily when they've got immunity? Obviously would be feeling resentful if you had stricter restrictions on you compared to someone else but equally why would you wish that on other people just because you have to live with it? Everyone should suffer, many of them unnecessarily, just because you have to? It's just a really selfish childish mindset. In any event I think that antibody testing would just be used for employment purposes really to help get as much as the workforce back in as possible and stop people taking repeated times off work in self-isolation. Not so that people who have had it can go the pub or on holiday whilst everyone else glares at them through their net curtains.

This situation would only be for 12-18 months until a vaccine, after which everyone could travel etc

re clubs, pubs and other entertainment
imo it would not be workable to try to ban non-immune people from anywhere within the UK
So they enter at their own risk

Where it might make a useful difference in for NHS personnel - those with immunity could be put in the frontline

Also maybe foreign holidays - but these might not start before vaccinations anyway, if tourist countries are also worried about forgeries

My thoughts on this are that those who are young and fit and think they'd get it mildly, would actively try and catch it, so they could then be immune, get a certificate and resume normal Ife. That doesn't sound like a great plan.

I don’t think it’s about punishment or rule followers

Just the lowest risk to move forward

It is a great plan in the scheme of things. We’re still not there yet with the test though.

I think the fact that the government has even mentioned this right now is a massive mistake. There are plenty of people out there who are young and in good health and now find themselves poor, jobless and trapped indoors all day. Without a doubt many of those people will try to catch it if it will give them their jobs and their freedom back. I'm even tempted (I'm not going to before anyone jumps on me) and I'm normally quite a rule follower. If this "immunity passport" idea starts doing the rounds on social media it will be an absolute disaster.

Those not immune would not be "banned from normal life"

They would continue like anyone else, as restrictions would be lifted bit by bit, but almost certainly the same for everyone at each stage

So no need to go out trying to get infected - it would happen in time, at a pace the NHS can handle

The extra vulnerable would be shielded if they wanted, but not forcibly