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Original poster

Anyone else worried about the potential for a 2-tier society if antibody test becomes available?

91 replies

Coronacantcope · 02/04/2020 20:39

I've seen a lot over the past few days about potential certificates enabling those already immune to go about normal life. I know it's all theoretical but...

Is it just me who doesn't think this could possibly work? Because those (particularly young, low risk) who don't have a certificate/immunity are not going to be able to tolerate seeing others resume normal life while they still have to stay in some form of isolation. Even my DP who is high risk said he didn't think he could deal with seeing friends meet up, go to work etc while he stayed indoors. Also careers would suffer amongst those still required to stay home.

We seem to be struggling to get compliance while we're all expected to do it, I think there would be major protests if we asked only some of the population to isolate.

OP posts:
BigChocFrenzy · 02/04/2020 22:31

By "here", I meant Germany !
Sorry, I should have said

All the discussion I've heard in Germany has been about - hopefully - putting in frontline health workers who are immune and withdrawing the others to other roles
and similarly for other essential workers

it is to help the economy and the health service

BigChocFrenzy · 02/04/2020 22:35

Bluntness That was part of my point about testing capabilities:

Germany already tests 500,000 people per week for CV, vs 30-40,000 for the UK

There are plans to really ramp up testing in Germany if an antibody test becomes available
It wouldn't take too many weeks to cover the health service, then move onto the essential workers

As you say though, to test everyone in the country .... would take a long time even in Germany
That doesn't seem to be the aim

Splodgetastic · 02/04/2020 22:38

I am also concerned about the app being developed for contact tracing that tracks your every move. What if you have to have it to leave the house / go to work?

NameChangedToProtect1 · 02/04/2020 22:39

Honestly this is not a concern now!

Original poster
Coronacantcope · 02/04/2020 22:43

@ShellsAndSunrise I take your point but we are really struggling, we have a 10mo baby and just getting through each day is hellish at the moment. I don't know if it will get easier but I understand why my DP feels the way he does. Also it's not just about us, we are totally compliant, there are lots of people who are stretching or outright defying the rules now, I can't see any way those people are going to stay in lockdown when others don't have to.

OP posts:
BigChocFrenzy · 02/04/2020 22:45

It's been blown up out of all proportion

It was a German plan to get some key workers back into action
not some futuristic dystopia for a whole population

The UK media have seized on it and tried to make headlines

MarshaBradyo · 03/04/2020 04:22

BigChoc interesting re problem with test. The German story was a few days, possibly a week ago, maybe that’s why the immunity passport part hadn’t been mentioned again.

MarshaBradyo · 03/04/2020 04:24

On numbers they are higher but sadly only in principle atm. 3.5m on order but now in principle only from SureScreen in U.K. The issue is they need to be validated.

They would be at home, £6, so definitely more scalable than antigen test. They need to work first though.

Pixxie7 · 03/04/2020 04:57

Surely this is similar to the herd immunity scenario, if enough people have got antibodies the rest are less likely to get it. However due to the testing fiasco we have absolutely no idea home many people have actually had it.

Dongdingdong · 03/04/2020 05:02

I don’t think it’s about punishment or rule followers

I agree - it’s a rather childish mindset to see things that way.

Dongdingdong · 03/04/2020 05:05

I personally think the testing is purely being done in response to public demand.

Indeed. People have latched into it as some sort of godsend when in reality, mass testing of the general public is just not feasible and would achieve very little.

Dongdingdong · 03/04/2020 05:06
  • latched onto it
Reginabambina · 03/04/2020 05:16

I’d much rather be stuck in lockdown rules indefinitely watching others resume their normal lives if it meant that the economy could begin to go back to normal. I’m really not the kind of arsehole that insists that everyone else should suffer just because I do.

VadenuRewetje · 03/04/2020 05:18

with everyone being told to stay home as far as possible with the small exceptions on the list, it is just about possible to get some daily exercise whilst keeping 2 metres distance now - before people started being more serious, it was really difficult - parks were too crowded, you couldn't keep a proper distance away.

if you let some people out of lockdown it is going to make things so much worse for those who still need to observe it.

AllTheseThingsThatIHaveNotDone · 03/04/2020 05:30

I thought even if it turns out you have had it, you can get it again as it mutates?

stairway · 03/04/2020 05:47

As a healthcare worker I think it’s a great idea. It’s unlikely there will be any financial reward for being exposed to a killer virus the rest of the population gets to protect themselves from, however those key workers that survive may get their freedom back sooner.

MarshaBradyo · 03/04/2020 08:19

It is a good way out of lock down no doubt but they’ve tested 15 and none work well enough so far. So that’s a shame. Matt Hancock this morning

Hearhoovesthinkzebras · 03/04/2020 08:30

I have not heard anyone here suggest it would mean some people coming out of lockdown earlier

So why did Matt Hancock talk about issuing certificates or wrist bands confirming immunity, on Question Time last night? Why would you need a wrist band if you are still kept at home?

Imperial College have just issued more modelling and the rates of spread in the population are not that big - think it was 0.2 - 1. something. Was watching a Dr last night working out figures and it was only one million or so already infected in Italy out of a population of over 60 million.

That's an awful lot of people still to be infected

Hearhoovesthinkzebras · 03/04/2020 08:33

This is a video of a Dr discussing the Imperial modelling and how the numbers translate

crazydiamond222 · 03/04/2020 08:40

I would expect the UK government to leave it up to the individual to decide the level of risk they are will to take based on their immunity. For example if someone in the shielded group finds out they are immune they could then leave the house.

A young heathy person who finds out they are not immune could be banned from specific high risk activities I would have thought it would need to be left up to them to police themselves.

I could however see it impacting on international travel with some countries needing proof of immunity before allowing foreign residents to enter until there is widespread vaccination.

MarshaBradyo · 03/04/2020 08:41

Hear yes agree it’s to get people out of SD earlier.

MarshaBradyo · 03/04/2020 08:42

And also agree with Crazy. I’m not against people measuring their own risk.

Hearhoovesthinkzebras · 03/04/2020 08:45

How does that work?

If Imperial College modelling is right, roughly one million people in the UK are immune - out of sixty million! That's a lot of people left to catch this. Surely, if you end lockdown and let everyone decide to mix or not we will just overwhelm the NHS again?

MarshaBradyo · 03/04/2020 08:46

Hear that was assuming we have an antibody test

But yes if as low as that we will be in the same situation all over again without one

MarshaBradyo · 03/04/2020 08:47

We can’t keep lockdown until vaccine

So there’s no easy answer

That Buzzfeed article put it well