Anyone else worried about the potential for a 2-tier society if antibody test becomes available?

[Coronacantcope]

I've seen a lot over the past few days about potential certificates enabling those already immune to go about normal life. I know it's all theoretical but...

Is it just me who doesn't think this could possibly work? Because those (particularly young, low risk) who don't have a certificate/immunity are not going to be able to tolerate seeing others resume normal life while they still have to stay in some form of isolation. Even my DP who is high risk said he didn't think he could deal with seeing friends meet up, go to work etc while he stayed indoors. Also careers would suffer amongst those still required to stay home.

We seem to be struggling to get compliance while we're all expected to do it, I think there would be major protests if we asked only some of the population to isolate.

That was their upper estimate

I work in Care, all our current guidelines (for both Home Care and Residential) say best practice is for clients who have Covid-19 to be cared for by carers who have had it.

The value for Health and Care providers in knowing who is safe to provide care for positive clients/patients will be absolutely massive.

So low! They are doing a very small number antibody test to get numbers in likely proportion which will help in that hopefully (500 I think)

I was worried about this as I'm early pregnant. I obviously want to avoid the virus as worried about vertical transmission particularly, but maybe that will mean lockdown for eight months? Which would be so detrimental to my toddler DD.

I think what is more likely though is that it will rightly be used for key workers first and perhaps gradually rolled out to establish level of existing immunity to guide gradual release of measures countrywide.

It's true there are no easy answers. I thought antibody tests weren't always that reliable because of cross reactivity.

Also I appreciate that what is best for the country is the main thing over my family's personal circumstance - just that I'm worried about a very long lockdown for us!

I’m really not the kind of arsehole that insists that everyone else should suffer just because I do

No one is insisting other people should suffer, just saying they will find it difficult. In Mumsnet no one is expected to have negative thoughts, we should all just happily go along with whatever is better ‘for the greater good’ without any negative feeling about it.
This lockdown is shit. I hate it. I’m doing it, of course. I’m following the rules to the letter. But I still hate it.
If antibody testing did mean that I had to sit at home for months and watch other people get on with their lives, I’d hate that too. I’d do it, but I would still feel shit about it. And that’s allowed.

I thought even if it turns out you have had it, you can get it again as it mutates?

It doesn't mutate like the flu virus. The measured rate of mutation is very low so far.
So, no.

There have been cases of people who've tested negative and it got positive again. But that's probably an issue with the test.

Drs have also said (including the chief medical advisor in the US) that we develop immunity to other Corona viruses and so there's no reason to expect differently with COVID19.

If antibody testing did mean that I had to sit at home for months and watch other people get on with their lives, I’d hate that too. I’d do it, but I would still feel shit about it. And that’s allowed

I agree. Plus what will happen with regards to jobs, wages, careers, schooling? We can't have half of the children held back at home for a year while their peers move on with their education can we? And will we keep non immune people furloughed until a vaccine? That's bound to go down well with people who have to go to work. I'm starting to sense resentment towards me already from colleagues who are having to carry on working in tough conditions while I'm paid to stay at home.

Bit of a derail but in my case I suspect furlough might >> redundancy in the long term... or the government will start to scale it back because there are industries such as fruit picking that will need workers come the summer.

I agree with the testing thing it will be most useful for profiling individual key worker's capacity to be working and on a population statistical level to inform government strategy on relaxing distancing measures etc. It may identify hotspots in the country (particularly London) where herd immunity levels might be approaching and so more normality can resume there while other more immunologically naive populations may need to continue with stricter measures.

As individuals it may help people feel more confident knowing you’re immune, especially if you care/shop etc for a vulnerable relative, but beyond peace of mind, I can’t see it working like a vip pass in general life. I do wonder if there will be certain large employers that will want to test all their staff to get their offices/stores running and open again?

It just seems, from the current modelling, that the numbers who have had it are just so low. Haven't they said we need above 60% for herd immunity and the model shows nowhere near that, even at upper estimates.

I don't get this. Those who will have gained immunity would have gone through being very ill, or the fear when they first had symptoms that they would. It is not a nice position to be in at all, so unless those who somehow had no symptoms at all and didn't think they had it, in which case, why would they be testing in the first place, these people would have gone through what we all desperately want to avoid.

It seems only fair that they should be entitled to resume some form or normal life, even more so if it means they can help others.

dontdisturbmenow

They do think a lot of people have had it without showing symptoms though, that's the problem.

A lot of the famous people claiming to have had it had no symptoms, lord knows why they were tested.

A reporter on the news last night trialled one of the antibody tests and it showed he has antibodies though says he has had no symptoms. Now, that test may not be accurate, though the inventors in Ireland claim that it is very accurate, but it seems like there are a lot of people who don't know that they've been infected.

Recent estimates point to 25% of infected people with no symptoms.
That could be key workers who can free up some PPE to others when resources are scarce.
It could be people in infected households that can take up outside tasks, such as shopping with no risk for themselves or the community.

A lot of the famous people claiming to have had it had no symptoms, lord knows why they were tested.

They could have been contacts of cases.
In countries with a good test coverage, and in the initial phase, the vast majority of tests are negative. That will include people with symptoms but not covid, and people with positive contacts that turn out negative.

But you can simultaneously think that people who have had it are entitled to resume a normal life while also be upset that you can’t, dontdisturbmenow. They aren’t mutually exclusive.
And actually I haven’t been ‘desperately trying to avoid it’ to protect myself. I know that even as a fairly young, healthy adult with no pre existing conditions that it could still be a serious illness for me, and could even kill me. But that’s true of a lot of things. I am avoiding getting it to avoid spreading it, like we have been told to do.
No one is saying they won’t abide by the rules, whatever they are. Just that understandably it will be hard to watch other people go out as normal while they’re still at home, for many reasons. Like Hearhoovesthinkzebras says, what about schooling? Will those who haven’t had it miss up to 2 years of their education while others go back to school and are educated normally? What would happen long term?
I actually don’t think any of this will happen, I agree with Bluntness that this is not how testing will work. But people are entitled to be converted about it.

Concerned, not converted!