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Original poster

Anyone else worried about the potential for a 2-tier society if antibody test becomes available?

91 replies

Coronacantcope · 02/04/2020 20:39

I've seen a lot over the past few days about potential certificates enabling those already immune to go about normal life. I know it's all theoretical but...

Is it just me who doesn't think this could possibly work? Because those (particularly young, low risk) who don't have a certificate/immunity are not going to be able to tolerate seeing others resume normal life while they still have to stay in some form of isolation. Even my DP who is high risk said he didn't think he could deal with seeing friends meet up, go to work etc while he stayed indoors. Also careers would suffer amongst those still required to stay home.

We seem to be struggling to get compliance while we're all expected to do it, I think there would be major protests if we asked only some of the population to isolate.

OP posts:
oncemorewithfeeling99 · 02/04/2020 21:43

Having been really quite ill with it, I’ve been making myself feel better with dreams of the antibody test and certificates so I can frolic in the park several times a day. Don’t rob me of this dream. It’s my only silver lining!

BigChocFrenzy · 02/04/2020 21:45

The only possible "immunity passports" might be for those who want to holiday abroad

It would be easy for the govt to make it illegal for employers to ask for immunity certificates,
if that looked like ever becoming a possibility

Sounds more like too many bored people watching dysopian movies

kingis · 02/04/2020 21:45

I would be annoyed if I would have to stay in when people with passes could go out and about. I think those passes are ok for front line workers but restrictions should be raised slowly for everyone.

BigChocFrenzy · 02/04/2020 21:49

imo, it would be unworkable and there would be civil disorder if any govt were daft enough to order those not yet immune to stay in lockdown,

while the lucky minority went out

No govt would be that clumsy

Lockdown will either stay a little longer for all, or be raised for all
Relaxation of the various measures will happen in stages, but the same rights for everyone

nellodee · 02/04/2020 21:50

@BigChocFrenzy What do you think is the purpose of anitbody checks if people are not handled differently, dependent on the outcome? Or are they purely to get an idea of how far the virus has spread?

BigChocFrenzy · 02/04/2020 21:52

Besides, look how many years all the large govt IT projects take, under either party

It would take years to organise - and the first rollout would get half of it wrong

Buzztothemoon · 02/04/2020 21:53

It’s happening in China. People have an app on their phone which gives their current health status - red, amber or green. For some activities you have to be green. So for example there are app scanners to enter metro stations.

nellodee · 02/04/2020 21:55

God, we are truly living in a dystopian sci-fi movie, aren't we?

BigChocFrenzy · 02/04/2020 21:55

nellodee It is VERY important for the govt and PHE to know how many people are immune to the virus
and how the numbers change

There would be a completely different strategy and measures if e.g. 50 % are immune or if just 1% are

In Germany they want to test the same group of 100,000 people for immunity, repeatedly over time to see how the epidemic develops.+Not to treat them differently

(They say they would have started already but the tests available also test positive for some other Corona viruses. They estimate it will take some more weeks till a proper test is available.)

BigChocFrenzy · 02/04/2020 21:57

What happens in a brutal dictatorship cannot be carried out in Western countries

e.g. the UK govt will not order the police to weld people into their houses

The police would refuse and the govt want to get elected again

MarshaBradyo · 02/04/2020 21:57

BigChoc they mentioned immunity passport for Germany on R4. Is that not the case?

definitelygc · 02/04/2020 22:00

The current headline on the Guardian website is "Immunity passports: Government seeks to end lockdown with unproven antibody tests". I think this will prove to be a PR disaster. Let's see how many more people we see driving and walking around tomorrow...

BigChocFrenzy · 02/04/2020 22:04

The Chinese dictatorship already had a lot of tracking Apps and infrastructure, so CV was an excellent opportunity to bring them in

They don't track immunity - noone can - but they check body temperature, so anyone ill for any reason could be excluded at any time

The UK does not have any of that and it would take quite a while to develop
imo, any such App would be for body temp, not immunity - too much incentive to fake and too mcuh public resistance

Lweji · 02/04/2020 22:04

The main point of the tests, initially, is to enable key workers who tested positive to continue working if they're immune, or to end the period at home for those who got infected.

To let those caring for vulnerable people to carry on or return earlier.

It's a good thing for the economy because many workers can go back to their jobs after quarantine.

It is a good tool to assess the infamous herd immunity in the population to determine when it's safe to relax restrictions for all.

It won't be applied to the majority of the population too early, but it might help determine when it's ok to open schools.

MarshaBradyo · 02/04/2020 22:05

It’ll be a while before they’re out so if people take a risk now some might not be around to get them (young people might first so very low risk).

MarshaBradyo · 02/04/2020 22:12

For the U.K. Chris Whitty has mentioned a few times the test would be a good way to get some people back working.

ShellsAndSunrises · 02/04/2020 22:14

Even my DP who is high risk said he didn't think he could deal with seeing friends meet up, go to work etc while he stayed indoors.

If I’m honest, I’d be pretty annoyed at that - and I say that as someone who was pretty close to being a high-risk person. He’d have to cope with it, it’d be for his own benefit...

We’re walking a tightrope between keeping the economy going and stopping people from dying. The latter is more important, but the former isn’t inconsequential. A report last night said 20% of small businesses would go out of business each month that we’re on lockdown.

If it becomes an option for people who have had it and are immune to go back to work, that is worth considering at the right point. I can’t see it being extended to being allowed to go to restaurants and bars and things yet, but if this goes on for a year or so, maybe they will.

This might all be a mute point, and who knows how this will burn out; but I’d be really unimpressed at my partner having that kind of view.

TeenTraumaTrials · 02/04/2020 22:21

But that's the problem isn't it. Government have said yes we might look at these so it's not unreasonable for people to wonder how they might be used. Would have been so much better to say nothing until they'd thought about the latter. If it's surveillance and better understanding then of course that's valid.

Sarahandco · 02/04/2020 22:21

I think these tests won't materialise yet.

Stupid question probably, but someone with medical knowledge might be able to answer. If you had the illness at the end of February for example, would there be a number of weeks after which the antibody test would no longer detect antibodies? I mean to say, that if the tests are not available for some time - will some people who had it early on not be able to have an antibody test or do the antibodies exist longterm?

BigChocFrenzy · 02/04/2020 22:21

marsha That is a project starting as I posted above, to keep testing 100,000 people to see how immunity develops

We have no timescale to even begin the study of testing 100,000 peopl because a reliable test for antibodies is some weeks away
We don't know how long they will keep testing these people to get what they need

The aim was for work,
e.g. put health service staff with immunity into the front line and take out others
to reassure supermarket staff and other essential workers

I have not heard anyone here suggest it would mean some people coming out of lockdown earlier
I can't see a 2-tier society being any more acceptable in Germany than in the UK

Additionally, I'm not sure if the UK could even manage the amount of testing and the new admin for this

  1. Germany carries out 500,000 CV tests per week because of its vast number of labs and it pharma & chemical companies manufacturing all the testing ingredients, reagents etc The UK manages 8,000 tests some days

2 ) Maybe more important, German has a registration & ID system for every resident in the country and certificate or ID stating where they live, DOB, nationality etc
That would fairly easily enable an immunity certificate to be slotted into this system

The Uk would have to construct something similar - basically bring in an ID system -
or else these certificates would be too easy to forge and too difficult to check properly if someone is stopped

BigChocFrenzy · 02/04/2020 22:24

What the UK could do is to carry out immunity tests - when available - on some essential workers,
especially on frontline NHS staff - this would genuinely be useful

definitelygc · 02/04/2020 22:25

I have not heard anyone here suggest it would mean some people coming out of lockdown earlier

Matt Hancock has suggested this and it's currently all over the papers. It's idiotic because they've not even thought it through (don't even know if the tests will work even) but many people will hear that and will start wondering whether to try and get themselves infected just in case.

ViciousJackdaw · 02/04/2020 22:26

my DP who is high risk said he didn't think he could deal with seeing friends meet up, go to work etc while he stayed indoors

I am reminded of a recent CRUK ad - the young lad talking about 'friends outside playing and I'm stuck in a room'. People all over the world have to stay in whilst the world continues around them thanks to illness. I suggest you get yourself on Amazon and order DP a grip.

BigChocFrenzy · 02/04/2020 22:28

Sarah afaik, the body may take a few weeks to produce enough antibodies, but then they remain within the body to defend against the virus in future

I have read that virologists think CV immunity could last 2 years or longer
so the antibodies should be detectable that long

Bluntness100 · 02/04/2020 22:30

I personally think the testing is purely being done in response to public demand.

It will take two years to test the whole population. It will be over by then, and immunity will be spent. Logically it doesn’t work.

Testing should be and will be done for vulnerable, nhs, their family etc. But for the whole population. No chance, no two tier society will emerge, because it takes two years to test everyone, and then you’d have to start again, because likely immunity will be spent. If you’re immune for a year, then logically taking two years to test your population makes no sense,

They want to get to the 100 k to get the nhs workers, their families , the vulnerable etc covered, no one else will be tested, time will run out. It will be gone or a vaccine developed by then.