Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 2

[Barracker]

A follow on thread from here

Please try to keep it data driven, factual and civil.

www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

Just to say that, according to the El Pais article (linked to by costavella), neither France nor Spain has, up to now, been including deaths outside hospitals, either.

The article doesn't actually say that ANY country has been including those deaths.

Ah I may have misunderstood this

"The number of people who have died in England after contracting coronavirus stands at 1,284, a rise of 159
In Scotland the total stands at 47, in Wales it is 62, and Northern Ireland, 22"

So it must be that the increase in Scotland, Wales and N Ireland together adds up to 21 (rather than 47+62+22) ,in which case the additional deaths for the UK would be 180. I found it a bit unclear in the Guardian's reporting above.

As you were, sorry.

I found this website recently: covidly.com
If you go onto the graphs tab you can track by cases or deaths and compare to other countries.

Just did a twitter search and this is the graph I saw, but not sure who compiled it: twitter.com/SheepDuster/status/1244672611637813253/photo/1

It's obviously now being used by certain people to prove it's all not s bad as was predicted

Gun crime and car accidents surely a factor, wouldn't like to guess how much!

Excellent news we are tracking more closely to France. Clearly the chief scientific officer has a wealth of information that you can’t get from simply googling, and he will have a significant very qualified analytical team in place doing the work.

In fact he will have all the information. Inc suspected corona deaths, community deaths, post mortem numbers etc etc, that simply is not available to the public, so he will be able to say with an authority that can’t be replicated, who we are tracking.

France hit their peak quite quickly it seems. So definitely more glimmers of hope coming through.

Let’s all stay positive.

Exactly what I thought when he said that @Bluntness100.

@Bluntness100 if you get time, go on the website I linked above. Been playing round with various data and for the most part it looks as if we are much closer to France's trajectory than Italy or Spain.

Disclaimer: am just another person on the internet with an unqualified opinion.

Why do you say France has hit their peak Bluntness? Not arguing, just seems too early to say from what I can see.

Thanks for the tip, RU562341

I had been looking for an easy way to filter out the noise of too many countries on the other DA10D graphs.

This enabled me to show the UK, Italy and France alone.

It makes it much clearer with just the three trajectories, as you can see.

That makes us look the worst but we are closing in closer to Italy and France.

@itsgettingweird, it depends on which settings you select. If you choose "says since 50 (or 100 or anything above) deaths" the line does go down and away from Italy and France.
Which really just means it can be interpreted any way you want it to be, I suppose!

We are the worst out of these three countries itsgettingweird when comparing DA10D, but not by a huge amount, and the latest unusual low figures will pull us out of that steepness towards the right, which is what we want to see over a prolonged period.

We are not suffering as badly as Spain.
I've not included them on that graph, but you can see them on the graph upthread.

PuffinShop, this is the article I was thinking of. I had understood Iceland was carrying out randomised testing within the general population?

english.alarabiya.net/en/features/2020/03/25/Coronavirus-Iceland-s-mass-testing-finds-half-of-carriers-show-no-symptoms

I wonder to what extent culture comes into it. Many GPs do not live with their children, we have less extended households than Italy, Spain, our elderly are more isolated (not to be proud of and pure speculation). So maybe this has been a protective factor.

If we can level at 200 deaths a day for 2 weeks I would say we are winning. Sadly though I have an inkling it will rise tomorrow, simply as these numbers are Sundays figures. We all know more doctors work on Mondays so there will be a catch up.

However way you look at it, Spain looks really bad :(

As RU562341 points out, the more data you exclude from your analysis, the more the graph can be manipulated to look different.
For example:
If you ask the graph to filter out all data before the first 200 deaths or 500 deaths (which was when we were really escalating fast) it then ignores several days or weeks worth of data, and focusses on the last few days alone.
But the data is less reliable when the sample is over a smaller time period.

Most comparisons tend to use days after 10 deaths to put countries on a comparable footing.

However way you look at it, Spain looks really bad :( It feels bad from here in Spain. And the economic impact is going to be fucking disastrous too.

Ru, thanks yes it does.

I think it’s important to note that the the chief scientific officer and his team aren’t basing his statement that we are tracking France on what is publicly available but very limited high level data , that would be ludicrous , because it would be so misleading as so limited data.

They are basing it on much more granular data, so as said, they will know how many post mortems, critical cases, severe cases, expected deaths, under lying conditions etc etc, and that’s what they will be saying we are tracking France based on. They have all the data to make that prediction and he wouldn’t have said it without significant work being done in the back ground.

So sorry Bird. From the UK it felt like Spain locked down early and fast, yet you are being absolutely hammered by it. I think the fact Italy was the first European country to be badly hit has distracted the news about Spain too, tbh :(

@Bluntness100

Looking at today’s figures, it seems France hasn’t already passed its peak I’m afraid... Maybe a backlog of reporting from the weekend?

@Bluntness100- exactly. The government and their advisors are not working with what we have! They are able to make much more accurate comparisons and predictions than anybody else. I trust what they say.

Thinking of you Bird

We all are holding our breath for the moment things begin to turn for you.

With all due respect Bluntness, all we on this thread can go on is the data in the public domain, rather than 'trusting' that the government have access to 'better' data that supports their claims.

I'm not a tin foil hat wearer, just prefer to see actual data to form an opinion (either way) on.

You still haven't said why France has hit its peak?

@georgedawes no we aren’t?

Why are you so keen to make it sound even worse?

Am in france and we were told by the prime minister that they were hoping to peak next weekend.