Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 2

[Barracker]

A follow on thread from here

Please try to keep it data driven, factual and civil.

www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

I would imagine the only cause of death remaining fairly stable is natural old age and those with terminal illness?

Sadly domestic abuse related deaths due to murder are likely to rise.

@oldbeforem make what seem worse?

Why on earth do you think France has peaked? That is in no way what the authorities here are saying. We’ve just had 418 deaths in 24 hours, there are no more ICU beds available, hospitals outside of the hot spots are desperately trying to create more ICU capacity, and we’re transferring patients by helicopter and plane to Germany to relieve pressure. They’re still talking about an oncoming «wave» here, not a wave that has passed.

his team aren’t basing his statement that we are tracking France on what is publicly available

Do you have a source for this?

Governmental and published scientific statistics are always traceable and provable from public data. This allows for peer scrutiny, vital in all scientific publications. I cannot find any data that Is not based on publically avaliable data.

That reminds me - when I post each day's stats I don't include the number of tests performed each day. The Medical officer and PM have each told us a couple of times that we in the UK are "top of the league" or "leading the way" in testing, or somesuch. Does anyone have any data about in what way we are performing more tests or being 'top of the league' compared to the other countries?

It would be great if someone could add number of tests each day to the update.

I was... surprised...to hear this said.

Following

To be honest, I don't trust the government, but it's not Boris, or Dominic Raab or Whitty or anyone else coming up with these analyses.
It is a number of highly qualified and experienced professionals. Mathematicians, statisticians, epidemiologists who are doing this and I trust them. Certainly more than joe public knocking up spreadsheets from different websites in their spare time.

Quite @FATEdestiny - you said it better than me! Asking for the data used to make assumptions is the very definition of science. It's not about being negative or positive, just asking for the actual data that underpins the assumptions.

Just a note (again) on the living with grandparents trope. In Italy just over 1% of people live in multi-generational households compared to 1.3 million people in the UK.
Or, given population variances, almost exactly the same.

www.tgcom24.mediaset.it/cronaca/coronavirus-lombardia-verso-i-contagi-zero-il-22-aprile-ecco-le-previsioni-regione-per-regione_16728763-202002a.shtml

This is an article (in Italian sorry) with am interesting prediction as to when each region will see the light.

I think you just need to C&P that every time, Canterbury! Would save you a job.

No evidence France have hit their peak.

You can't draw anything conclusive from the graph yet regarding the peak. In the same way we can't draw any conclusion from the UK death rate dropping two consecutive days.

More data needed.

Compare to Italy, who have gone up, down and back up again several times but still have a general upward trajectory.

Do you have a source for this?

Common sense really, why would they base it on limited data when they can do it on it all and be sure?

Sorry, should have said, I think t looking at worldometer France had passed it’s peak, daily deaths seem to be declining,,of course too early to say for sure but defintely declining.

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/876889/FINAL_Press_Conference_Slides_20200330.pdf

Looks like the reason the government say similar to France is they take the data from 50 deaths.

Whichever way you look at it, no evidence at all that France has peaked.

What, 418 today compared to 292 yesterday? An odd sort of decline.

And almost 2000 new infections compared to yesterday. I think the French government might have a better idea than you with Worldometers. After all, if the UK experts are using all kinds of secret data not available to us, I’m sure the French are too.

Am I looking at something different? This is what I see?

Lumene I fear you maybe right

That hasn’t been updated yet. Today is the highest ever increase for France. We have almost 21000 people in hospital, more than1500 more today, and 424 of them went straight into ICU. Things don’t look that good here right now.

Some light relief: twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1244652588538134529

And earlier I should have written : And almost 2000 more new infections compared to yesterday, 4376 vs 2599.

I’m not sure of what this thread is about, it seems a drive to prove the government wrong to prove it’s some mass conspiracy to cover up just how bad it is, I don’t understand why anyone would think they would do this, or hide the fact we are apparantly secretly following Italy.

It just seems a Hunt to make it look bad...🤷‍♀️

I've only just found this thread, I haven't read all the posts but it looks like a haven of sanity and calm, fact-based discussion

I've been watching the WHO press conferences for the last couple of weeks and finding them very helpful. Here is today's:

Am I looking at something different? This is what I see?

Put the data in context. Look at Italy's daily deaths graph. See the peaks followed by a few drops, then peaks again? Do you see that on Italy's graph? That's what others see differently.

Common sense really

I despair. In just here for the data and graphics, not conjecture. Can you just stick to data please.

Cross post, sorry @FingonTheValiant. Horrendous figures :(

Nope, don't see that at all Bluntness. People have politely asked for data and figures, some disagreement on figures, but all polite. Tbh when I worked in academia, disagreement was much more robust!!

You've still not responded to the fact that France clearly hasn't peaked except to say we're being negative?

I don’t care about proving anything about the UK government, but by the same token you seem to be trying to contradict the information from the French government. It’s completely misleading to suggest things have peaked here, and no one in France is trying to suggest to the people that that is the case, they are telling us to be prepared. The French figures are there for everyone to see, as is the governments statement, there’s no cover up.