Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 2

[Barracker]

A follow on thread from here

Please try to keep it data driven, factual and civil.

www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

Dreadful numbers from Italy considering how many precious lives lost so not saying it's all 'good news', BUT a glimmer of hope - lowest number of new cases in Italy in the last 13 days and highest number of new recoveries since the beginning of the epidemic.

I don’t understand why people think the government is lying about these numbers? Is there any evidence for that?

Chief scientific officer has just said we are tracking France.

Thanks @Barracker - absolutely my post was in good faith. Looks like Italy was at 1441 deaths at this stage 16 days ago, or 14 if you count from 10 deaths. Very sobering.

@Saladmakesmesad I wonder if that's to do with us not testing enough? Hard to know.

Sorry cross post - I hope to god Italy's numbers are slowing.

BUT a glimmer of hope - lowest number of new cases in Italy in the last 13 days and highest number of new recoveries since the beginning of the epidemic.

That is indeed a glimmer - thanks Salad.

Italy really does look like it's turned the corner with new infections. Their daily cases look like this (today's figures don't show yet, but they are 4k)

I don’t understand why people think the government is lying about these numbers? Is there any evidence for that?

I don't think they're lying - but there is a delay in reporting the numbers which I think has led some to believe that the figures are being massaged, so to speak. Kings hospital in London has said that while 11 deaths have been officially recorded, the number of people who've died from coronavirus at Kings is actually 31, and apparently other hospitals in London have the same issue.

There's an article on the issue in the Daily Mail, which says this:

Deputy chief medical officer for England, Dr Jenny Harries, has admitted there is a lag of at least one day between the deaths happening and their being reported.

Families must all be informed, she said, and data across the NHS and Government must match up before any official announcement can be made.

Patients must also be tested more than once to confirm they have had the coronavirus, and some are tested after their deaths.

From what I've read on Mumsnet it sounds like deaths from CV that occur outside of hospital are not being included in the official count either - but I've no idea if that's true.

That's excellent news @Barracker! Very hopeful indeed. Let's hope the trend continues.

Based upon 'Days After 10th Death Trajectories' (DA10D):
we're similar, but doing marginally worse than France, although only barely.
Almost the exact same trajectory as Italy, for now.
Better than Spain.

I'll post the trajectory graph again when it updates - usually after 7pm.

What concerns me is that the England figures are very skewed by the large numbers in London with a large and dense population which increases likelihood of transmission. The disease is likely to peak there before it does in less populated areas. Should we be making decisions about restrictions based on those figures? Say they relax restrictions in 8 weeks, will the rest of the UK figures start climbing belatedly?

From what I've read on Mumsnet it sounds like deaths from CV that occur outside of hospital are not being included in the official count either - but I've no idea if that's true.

I think that's true from the wording of the DHSC's tweets, however apparently from tomorrow the ONS will publish data on deaths outside of hospital.

From El Pais (English)

why does each country count deaths differently

As an aside, I saw a graph on twitter (can't access it now) to show that numbers of all deaths in the USA over the last couple of weeks had gone down a lot, presumably because people were staying in and not having car accidents etc. The decline for the youngest age group was the biggest drop.

Just watched the briefing and apparently we are now tracking France.

From what I've read on Mumsnet it sounds like deaths from CV that occur outside of hospital are not being included in the official count either - but I've no idea if that's true.

I believe they're now going to start releasing those figures from this week.

I believe they're now going to start releasing those figures from this week.

I just read that too - so it looks like we’ll be in for some harrowing numbers this week unfortunately.

deaths from CV that occur outside of hospital are not being included in the official count either - but I've no idea if that's true. Why haven't they been including them?

Ok so 180 does not appear to be the total. I make the figures for England + Scotland + Wales +Northern Ireland to be 290. I can't see where the 180 comes from. Can someone enlighten me please?

George. That's an interesting statistic. I wonder if gun crime rates have any bearing on that?

www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/coronavirus-spain-cases-deaths-who-covid-19-a9436366.html This is a good explanation of some of the reasons Spain's death toll is so high, but it's also worrying because there are many (not all) things that are the same in the UK, in terms of acting late and a poorly resourced health service. Also, the UK was perhaps the worst country for zig zagging and producing poor messaging (and still is I would say).

So, there ar eplenty of reasons to believe the UK numbers will continue rising for some time.

I’m just watching BBC News - they’ve built the Nightingale Hospital in a week. It’s a staggering achievement really.

Ok so 180 does not appear to be the total. I make the figures for England + Scotland + Wales +Northern Ireland to be 290.

Where do you get 290 from? BBC News just said 180...

I think we haven't been including deaths in the community - but some deaths in community have been reported in media as having dies from CV but I think it's because it's deaths with confirmed CV. We are only testing those admitted to hospital.

I agree we may have our eyes opened very soon when the rest are added.

I'd also like to see our statistics of other deaths as well. Road accidents, stabbing and gun crime etc. They must be reducing dramatically?
I would imagine the only cause of death remaining fairly stable is natural old age and those with terminal illness?

It's just harrowing whatever way you translate the data. But I do find it also calming to stay informed factually on a thread where everyone can just ask questions of quote sources for discussion.

I agree to keep it that way please.

What I find even more staggering is the population of Spain is so much lower. About 45m? Italy had about 60 and UK 66. So their percentage of population is even higher

@herecomesthsun
6 in scotland
14 in Wales
1 in NI
159 in England
180 total