Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 2

[Barracker]

A follow on thread from here

Please try to keep it data driven, factual and civil.

www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

I'm beginning to think each hospital trust should publish their own results online on their websites.
The compiled results from PHE seem to differ significantly from what hospitals are reporting.*
*
I agree Barracker. The fact they are not, and that there seems to be no official death toll by NHS Hospital Trust released, is quite suspicious - as if they're just making things up with no real accountability.

I think Iceland's figures also showed 50% of carriers were asymptomatic?

I may have missed something in the huge number of articles every day on the subject, but I don't think this can be right. If you look at this graph from covid.is/data, the blue part of the graph is positive cases detected by the health services, who are only testing symptomatic people as far as I understood. The orange part represents cases in asymptomatic people detected by deCODE genetics. You can see the blue cases are far outnumbering the orange cases, despite the fact that about the same number of 'blue tests' and 'orange tests' are carried out each day.

Not to say that there couldn't be more asymptomatic cases out there that remain undetected, but the deCODE tests should be enough to give a fairly accurate idea of the situation.

I'm surprised by this new estimate from Imperial that 2.7% of the population has been infected already. That corresponds to approx 1.8 million people.

If correct that means that the rate at which people require hospitalisation is much lower than we think.

Cross post @itsgettingweird - I disagree. I believe the government would make death tolls/infection rates up to project that they're handling the situation a lot better than the ROW and for the public to maintain their confidence in them. If death rates are seen to be decreasing, it's "clear" that the "rules" are working and people will continue to follow them.

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8165717/Locals-Wuhan-believe-42-000-people-died-coronavirus.html Sorry for the DM link, but this says that people in Wuhan say thousands more died there than the govt is admitting.

That's a dangerous game if they are Bay the figures will end up showing up in statistics at some point.

We know the health service is under more pressure than winter 2017/18 where people were waiting for 5 hours in ambulances outside a and e and deaths were higher than expected for that time of year.

ONS will be releasing weekly data sets including non hospital deaths.

Do we have any idea if the first of these will be the current total deaths outside hospitals, or just that weeks?

I believe the government would make death tolls/infection rates up

How on earth would they manage to do this in the U.K.?

I'm confused, the gov page just refreshed to show 180 deaths today then randomly updated again to show 209 deaths today (same as yesterday) I suspect it's just a glitch is it?

Hi I haven’t found the original but this article provides breakdown by trust

www.cambridge-news.co.uk/news/uk-world-news/hospital-figures-coronavirus-nhs-death-18003667

That's the article that piqued my interest Yesthatsme - those numbers are in many mainstream media articles, but only for that one specific 24 hours giving rise to the figures on the 29th. They all quote NHS England as the source. But none of them actually link to the relevant page.
Were they sent a press release without the figures also being published on the NHS England site?

The source data must be out there somewhere, and not just for that one particular 24 hour snapshot.

I can't for the life of me find the original data. Not for these articles and that list that is circulating, and not for any other time period. It's driving me potty.

DoH twitter is now updated:

UPDATE on coronavirus (#COVID19) testing in the UK:

"As of 9am 30 March, a total of 134,946 have been tested:

112,805 negative.
22,141 positive.

As of 5pm on 29 March, of those hospitalised in the UK, 1,408 have sadly died."

• • • DAILY UPDATE * * * Monday MARCH 30th

Total UK cases: 22,141
New UK cases: 2,619
Total UK Deaths: 1,408
New UK Deaths: 180

Thanks for the analysis.

There do seem to be some difficult inconsistencies/lack of clarity, but appreciate the effort of posters here to untangle and simplify it.

We really are tracking that Italy curve aren't we!

@hopefulhalf I agree. I worry about that and dare I think that it could even be worse. I hope I am wrong.

This virus and its spread is v peculiar and has had me scratching my head for a month now. I cannot understand how and why this govt, amongst others have waited this long to put any action in place. Some countries in the West insisted on 14 day self quarantine from end of January for anyone coming from Hubei, others barred flights from that period too. How is there such poor global collaboration in terms of strategy, testing and equipment? I second

Oh goodness please don't start that again. No one is "excited" ! also means surprised, shocked and other things.

We really are tracking that Italy curve aren't we!

Got your knitting ready?

You sound quite excited about that

Of course I'm not!! Obviously you can't get tone across on a short post, and this is a thread of (stark) numbers. Instead of jumping down a stranger's throat, maybe give people the benefit of the doubt?

Don't be horrible. This is a numbers thread, and it is quite extraordinary how much the UK numbers are tracking Italy's. I shouldn't have to caveat my posts, but for the record, the reason I comment is because they're both so awful. As all of us think!

Piling in on one comment on a figures and analysis thread is uncalled for. Why on earth would anyone be happy about a large number of deaths?

Shoving this here for the moment so I can concentrate on briefing. Hoping it might be helpful x

www.hsj.co.uk/news/coronavirus-deaths-mapped-east-of-england-fatalities-beginning-to-surge/7027212.article

@georgedawes Similar deaths but they had about 1000 more new cases than us on this day 16 days ago.

It's a 14% increase. Could be worse, but sunday figures. If following France (mu personal prediction) 2,000 by wednesday.

@hopefulhalf Let's hope not.

I know there are issues with the numbers of deaths reported but I'm still looking at and comparing the figures. I know it's probably a pointless exercise, but it's all we've got to go on at this stage and we need some sort of measure, even if it's a flawed one. It's the only thing that keeps me sane if I'm honest, as without that we'd be totally flailing about in the dark. The fact that the number of deaths has fallen for the second day in a row is a tiny glimmer of hope.

16 days ago Italy was on 1441 and we're now on 1408.

Let's all assume good faith of all posters on this thread please. No-one is excited nor pleased about deaths. Obviously.

The new thread has been civil and calm.

Yes, georgedawes we have been tracking Italy very closely indeed, 16 days behind currently. Although the unusual decrease in today's deaths may pull us marginally off their trajectory.

I'm going to take a closer look at that list to get an idea of what proportion of each day's figures really do relate to the previous day's deaths, and how much is a backlog of old data getting included a week or two late.