Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 2

[Barracker]

A follow on thread from here

Please try to keep it data driven, factual and civil.

www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

According to worldometers we had a similar number of deaths to spain today. Guess this is why BoJo was warning us it was going to get a lot worse last week

Often viruses increase in virulence while spreading - I'm wondering if that's what's happened in Europe vs the original outbreak in china. Too soon to tell I guess

@Barracker I think you skipped a line when updating for today - total UK deaths is still at yesterday's figure.
This thread is great. Thank you.

Isn’t this high number to do with adding community deaths that werent added initially?

Someone linked to a really comprehensive spreadsheet comparing the UK and Italy a while back - does anyone have it?

Those numbers are much bigger than I expected. My thoughts are with all families affected, I just had a bit of a cry when I read them.

hought the test wasnt good at picking up asymptomatic/low viral load cases. So if you test positive you have it, but there are an unknown amount of false negatives - so ppl thinking they arent infected when they are

I haven't seen any details of the sensitivity anywhere - it doesn't need much RNA to get a result. I was sometimes stunned by how low we could detect RNA.

I get it Barracker however we are still ahead from the figures on their day 20. I just hope it flattens out soon, but given the amount of idiots that were out on Mother’s Day weekend I’m not so sure it’ll be anytime soon.

I think this makes the UK about 10 days behind Italy for daily deaths

@Edgware40 Unfortunately not. These deaths are hospitalised patients only.

The ONS reports deaths in the community separately once a week and at quite a lag.

So we’re ahead of where Italy was on its 20th day?

ahead of where Italy was on its 20th day after their 10th death, to be precise.

Here's updated graphs, though we know now that these figures don't actually record the total number of deaths (excluding those outside hospitals and those not yet reported by various NHS trusts)

choma
www.washingtonpost.com/science/2020/03/26/negative-coronavirus-test-result-doesnt-always-mean-you-arent-infected/

www.cebm.net/covid-19/comparative-accuracy-of-oropharyngeal-and-nasopharyngeal-swabs-for-diagnosis-of-covid-19/

Just from google

Anecdata, but someone I know very well does PCRs - although not in this sector - and says false results are entirely possible in these swabs, but less likely in those who are in hospital/coughing: if it was a general public swab test/early symptoms or asymptomatic, confidence would be lower. Based on the amount of virus available at back of throat, iirc.

Is everyone still thinking that we'll peak around Easter?

Easter is 3 weeks after lockdown? If so, I would hope the rate of increase is slowing by then.

Here's the spreadsheet I mentioned a few posts up - it's very comprehensive:

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1eTKeK9vRxgw0KhvKxPCaDrfaHnxQP-n9TsLzsEymviY/htmlview#

Also, on 18th March (two weeks ago today) Italy had 475 deaths compared with our 563, according to the Worldometer.

Do we know which trusts the deaths were in yet?

I've been looking at the Google docs spreadsheet (@murtaman account) posted too. How are people interpreting the rising test positivity rate? It's 44.15% today. A week ago only 22% of tests were positive. A week before that it was 11%.

Does this show how badly the testing is keeping up with the spread of virus in the population, so an ever smaller percentage of possible positives is getting tested?

Also, it the positivity rate were to double again in the next week, we would have 88% of tests coming back positive! Given that you're never going to get 100% of people being tested coming back positive (some people being tested are tested without having symptoms -- eg if waiting for an operation, others will have different illnesses, some tests are false negatives) it seems that would be a kind of upper limit. Thoughts??

Hopsalong yes that positve rate is far too high, especially when you consider they have been testing health workers over the weekend.
I honestly think they have lost control of this thing- there are at least 100X the number of cases they have tests for.

Does this show how badly the testing is keeping up with the spread of virus in the population, so an ever smaller percentage of possible positives is getting tested

Only testing people who they are absolutely sure have the disease?

But I am surprised at how many positives there are.

I've been following these threads for some time, can someone help me understand these figures please?

If it's only mainly people going to hospital that are getting tested, does the new cases figure show a rough idea of increase in hosp admissions for that 24hrs too, or will a % of those be sent home for whatever reason.

Hope that makes sense and isn't too silly

Thank you

But I am surprised at how many positives there are

But surely if you are concentrating on testing those already in hospital, and those already isolating who think they have got it, NHS staff, then the proportion is going to get higher and higher. If you tested non-symptomatic persons it would, of course, be very much smaller.

Yummy I can't help you ,but of course it's not silly ! Sounds like a good point to me .

All I know is that it's reported that 2000 NHS workers were tested over the weekend ( don't know what day those tests would show up in ) and that apart from hospitals testing is carried out in Residential care ,prisons etc .And supposedly still ongoing in 100 GP practices ??

So presumably most of the daily tested figure are new admissions to hospital .

But surely if you are concentrating on testing those already in hospital, and those already isolating who think they have got it, NHS staff, then the proportion is going to get higher and higher

Of course - that is still a very high positive rate, considering other diseases that are around and can appear the same as CV-19.