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Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 2

983 replies

Barracker · 29/03/2020 14:33

A follow on thread from here

Please try to keep it data driven, factual and civil. Flowers

www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

OP posts:
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67
poorbuthappy · 01/04/2020 15:52

Can someone please explain the difference between the WHO figures and the Dept of health?

experience.arcgis.com/experience/685d0ace521648f8a5beeeee1b9125cd

Apologies if this hasn't posted correctly.
Its the dashboard from the WHO stating the daily situation.

peridito · 01/04/2020 15:53

Baaah that would be my thinking as well ,but I'm not exactly knowledgeable at this stuff !

poorbuthappy · 01/04/2020 15:55

Let's try that again...

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 2
Barracker · 01/04/2020 16:13

It's a day behind poorbuthappy

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 2
OP posts:
BigChocFrenzy · 01/04/2020 16:30

For those who like maths models and simulating different scenarios

This simulator is only for Germany, but allows us to modify a large number of input parameters via sliders,
to examine a huge number of scenarios

Gives an idea of all the relevant parameters we need to consider for the UK too
Click the LHS menus for the disease parameters - population, durations, severity etc and move sliders around

So complex and of course often interacting variables, not independent ones:

http://www.covidsim.eu

BigChocFrenzy · 01/04/2020 16:35

Has anyone posted this country predictor for the next week ?

"6-day forecasts of COVID-19 case counts by country based on a novel epidemiological model that integrates the effect of population behavior changes due to government measures and social distancing."

You select country and the curve of its previous data is extrapolated, with a corridor of upper and lower bounds, for the forecast:

http://rocs.hu-berlin.de/corona/docs/forecast/resultsbyy_country/

Thelnebriati · 01/04/2020 16:37

I noticed a dip in our local songbird population in the first two weeks of March, it hasn't recovered.
There should be a flock of noisy sparrows nesting in all the local eaves, they turned up as usual then suddenly disappeared. There are very few pigeons, we are usually overun with city pigeons and have a regular nesting pair of wood pigeons who are absent. There are no tits.

Postspecific · 01/04/2020 16:50

I’ve just done a vague calculation of deaths doubling every two days for the next ten days (and obviously adding the 150% rate on the days in between) and arrived at 60,000 deaths in UK - What am I missing? I’m wrong right?

TheElementsOfMedical · 01/04/2020 16:52

It's been a long while since I've worked with RNA and I've never had to prepare it from actual clinical samples, but I can offer some possible ideas of why the current tests have a high incidence of false negatives.

(1) Depends how much viral material is present in the patient's airway at the time of swabbing.
(2) I do not know how the swab is prepared for analysis but RNA is very vulnerable to breakdown so could be lost during the process due to RNAse enzymes secreted from [well, every living thing including people's skin] and sticking around on surfaces.
(3) Further to that, the RNA could again potentially be broken down (for the same reasons) whilst the RT-PCR itself is being set-up.

When I worked briefly on RNA analysis of laboratory samples, we kept aside a particular laboratory bench which had to be freshly and specially cleaned down prior to use, and kept separate special RNAse-free equipment, plasticware, and chemicals. And this was using the best industry-standard kits of the time. To be honest, I really hated the hassle and was delighted to abandon those experiments at the earliest opportunity Grin

(Like I said at the start - it's been a good few years, I imagine that the protocols, technology and kits are now much improved with regard to protecting the RNA during sample preparation).

Utterlybutterly8 · 01/04/2020 17:07

Some good news from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine - the virus is cornered:

twitter.com/ProfKarolSikora/status/1245284388004298752

peridito · 01/04/2020 17:11

@YummyBelicious
if it's any help ,during the daily press briefing at 5pm ,they now give a figure for total hospital admissions and daily increase ,so today

The number admitted to hospital in England with symptoms 10,767, whilst 3,915 of those are in London and 1,918 in the Midlands.

Barracker · 01/04/2020 17:14

We're not doubling every two days, Postspecific although we were on the early days.
It's more like every 3 or so

OP posts:
ChardonnaysPetDragon · 01/04/2020 17:14

I noticed a dip in our local songbird population in the first two weeks of March, it hasn't recovered.
There should be a flock of noisy sparrows nesting in all the local eaves, they turned up as usual then suddenly disappeared. There are very few pigeons, we are usually overun with city pigeons and have a regular nesting pair of wood pigeons who are absent. There are no tits.

Not sure this is the correct thread for this, but the tits are all acounted , in my garden. And the pigeons.

Lordamighty · 01/04/2020 17:27

Utterlybutterly8 thanks for posting that, some glimmers of hope are very welcome.

abitoflight · 01/04/2020 17:32

www.hsj.co.uk/news/coronavirus-deaths-mapped-fatalities-rise-faster-in-east-of-england-than-in-london/7027212.article

Can't do clickies sorry but regional data in HSJ today

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 2
Postspecific · 01/04/2020 17:39

Ah ok @Barracker. So if we don’t peak for say another 11 weeks as some are anticipating, does that mean the death rate continuing to double ever three days until that point? (Sorry, still getting head around it)

chomalungma · 01/04/2020 17:50

To be honest, I really hated the hassle and was delighted to abandon those experiments at the earliest opportunity

@TheElementsOfMedical

You are bringing back lots of memories.
I was a bit crap at making the thin gel to do sequencing. Kept getting bubbles in it

Now they have all these fancy machines that can do 1000s of bases in a few minutes. Don't know they're born Grin

itsgettingweird · 01/04/2020 18:09

I have no idea what RNA is but I'm sitting here nodding purely because DS is on the splicing and disease genetics study and I know they are splicing RNA - or at least doing something to the gene in which he has a variant!

It's so so clever and as horrible as this virus is and as high as the mortality is it will cause I do have faith those on the actual ground working in the genomics and behaviour of the virus will find us a way out of this.

chomalungma · 01/04/2020 18:14

I have no idea what RNA

DNA carries the code. It's double stranded.
When it wants to use the code to make a protein, the DNA opens up and it's read.

So imagine the code is 200 bases (letters) long.

A copy of that segment is made - this is single stranded RNA.

The RNA then goes to the protein making machinery and translates that RNA into the actual protein.

The more RNA that is made the more protein can be made.

This is called expression.

Viruses contain RNA - and this RNA basically takes over the protein making mechanism in a cell.

MarshaBradyo · 01/04/2020 18:20

Chomalungma very interesting. It’s complicated but it’s good to read the explanation.

Sorry if you’ve said this already and I’ve missed it but do you think it’s possible that by the time you are at hospital stage the test might be negative? Even if you have had CV for over two weeks, say.

itsgettingweird · 01/04/2020 18:20

Ah ha. So that's what they are looking with with Ds? His genetic variant ends in Pro194leu which I know means he's making a protein instead of the usual one. So I guess they are looking into the function of that and the effect? It's a missense variant (apparently!)
So they know which chromosome, which gene, which exon, and something like C>T and a number.

It's fascinating.

I hope all the scientists in the background get names and honoured at the end of this rather than the politicians on the frontline who are just mouthpieces for information I bet half of them don't even understand!

TheShoesa · 01/04/2020 18:29

Thank you for these threads which I follow but haven't posted on yet.

Please could someone explain why our 'recovered' figure is comparatively low and static? I'm assuming it is due to lack of testing, so if discharged patients are not tested as negative, they can't be included in the recovered figure? Otherwise it appears to me that there are a huge amount of active cases in the UK.

chomalungma · 01/04/2020 18:30

Mutations can happen in many locations.

Imagine you are copying a book out.
When cells replicate, they copy the DNA.

A letter can be missed out, copied incorrectly - and all this has an effect on the protein that is made.

If it takes place in the gametes, then that mutation can be inherited.

chomalungma · 01/04/2020 18:34

Sorry if you’ve said this already and I’ve missed it but do you think it’s possible that by the time you are at hospital stage the test might be negative

I have no idea. I haven't seen any data on the sensitivity of the tests.

The gold standard is to take a culture - but that is highly dangerous and time consuming. The aim is to compare the tests to the gold standard - and see how many postives the tests get.

sh0ppingstar · 01/04/2020 18:36

There are a number of posts on twitter from colleagues highlighting that they are seeing clinical cases (symptoms / CXR picture) with negative throat/nasal swabs which are then positive on sputum.

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