Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 2

[Barracker]

A follow on thread from here

Please try to keep it data driven, factual and civil.

www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

They’re now showing the number of new cases/deaths in the previous 7 days from a starting point of 200 new cases per week or 20 new deaths per week. It shows the curve plateauing very clearly.

This is such positive news about Italy - thanks for sharing the graphs. I'm hoping their number of new cases will be under 4000 today.

If we can test a maximum of 70,000 a week, then our maximum number of cases would show as plateauing at 70,000. I hope that’s not what has happened in Italy.

Sweden’s strategy is looking more questionable... Deaths increased by 33% in a day to 239. Deaths per head of population similar to the UK’s yesterday. I wonder how long they’ll hold out?

2352 deaths uk now

563 new deaths today

mobile.twitter.com/dmn001/status/1245337139946160129

[2020-04-01] 29,474 confirmed cases, 2,352 deaths.
+4,324 new cases (25,150 yesterday), +563 new deaths (1,789 yesterday)

Are Sweden not self isolating? What's their policy?

It shows (Italy's) curve plateauing very clearly

Genuinely very pleased for Italy - god knows they need this after what they've been through - but also potentially pleased for us

If we really are about 2 weeks behind them, we'll hopefully soon be out the other side if we can just hold tight for a while longer

563 new deaths today

Terrible news I'm hoping our figures will peak at Easter and then start declining, but I'm beginning to lose faith...

We are now slightly above Italy, they had 2158 deaths 2 weeks ago.

zoflora, two weeks ago Italy reported 2978.
2158 was 16 days ago.

Sorry - incorrect numbers - please disregard, I'll repost

Oops sorry - was looking at a graph that plotted from first death not calendar weeks.

poster on another thread said that 85% of people in hospital are testing negative but they must be showing symptoms to require hospital treatment

The tests are pretty accurate - a positive test is going to be very sensitive - in other words, if you have the disease, you will test positive.

What I can't find out is the specificity - this tells you that the test returns negative if you are negative.

What the test is doing is called RT-PCR

Virus contain RNA. A bit like DNA. The RNA is converted to DNA and then it's amplified up to make lots of copies. These copies can then be detected.

The RNA can only be converted if it's the RNA that is in Covid-19.

There may be issues with cross- contamination - any RNA from another patient is also going to be amplified up.

I spent 2 years doing these kind of tests to detect meningitis and tumours - but it was a lifetime ago.

They have moved on since then but the principle is the same

This is what I was looking at, it was posted earlier on this thread.

Hopefully people realize this is not the "flu" now and it is very serious.

• • • DAILY UPDATE * * *CORRECTED Wednesday April 1st

Total UK cases: 29,474
New UK cases: 4,324
Total UK Deaths: 2,352
New UK Deaths: 563

This is pretty terrible. Expected yes, but still shocking all the same.

Do we have Italy's new cases and number of deaths for today yet?

That is a massive increase. I didn’t expect it to increase that much.

Don't know why but Spain releases data early in morning about 9 am, UK in afternoon and Italy in evening.

The tests are pretty accurate - a positive test is going to be very sensitive - in other words, if you have the disease, you will test positive
I thought the test wasnt good at picking up asymptomatic/low viral load cases. So if you test positive you have it, but there are an unknown amount of false negatives - so ppl thinking they arent infected when they are

So we’re ahead of where Italy was on its 20th day?

Let’s hope it dips tomorrow.

Zofloramummy that chart compares the UK with Italy, by looking at the daily numbers starting the day after the 10th death was recorded, for each country.
It makes us 16 days behind Italy.

Although, today's figures are a large leap.
It's only if we see a series of even further large leaps that we will be able to say we are gaining on them. For now, 15-16 days seems to be how far behind we are.