Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 2

[Barracker]

A follow on thread from here

Please try to keep it data driven, factual and civil.

www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

But if the virus can have a life of approximately three days, would they necessarily still be testing positive? Isn’t it feasible for viral- induced pneumonia to persist once the virus has left the body?

... that’s in reference to the 85% who are testing negative despite symptoms.

Makes sense @DuLANGDuLANGDuLANG (that’s your best Lang yet,) and I guess there will almost definitively be a large number of non-viral deaths that almost certainly wouldn’t have happened if the NHS weren’t so stretched, which does somewhat negate the overlap anyway.

Postspecific I wondered that.

We are asked to isolate 7 to 14 days max given that we are not infectious. But are you if you are then in hospital after that lag and do you still test positive? Some do obviously.

I heard a radio programme that deducted that the risk of a person dying from Covid-19 in the two weeks after they’ve contracted it is more or less equivalent to that same person’s probability of dying across that year. This will differ depending on age and illness.

There was an Italian study in the press a couple of weeks ago which said ( based on Italian and Chinese data), the mortality risk was doubled across all age groups by covid-19. Italian link, sorry: www.lasiciliaweb.it/2020/03/13/il-coronavirus-raddoppia-il-rischio-di-mortalita/

I have a colleague who's job is medical evidence based data analysis and working out protocols. A few weeks ago he was trying to find details of the sensitivity of the tests. From what he could find out then, before it kicked off here, a lot of tests had a sensitivity of 40 to 60 percent. That means that for every 100 people that definitely do have the virus, only 40 to 60 of them would actually show up positive on the test. There were a lot of false negatives.

I'm not sure what the sensitivity of the current tests being used are, but although hopefully better than these original ones, there is likely to be a fair amount of false negatives.

I will try and see if he has found any more data on the sensitivity of tests being used currently.

The new antibody test that should be getting distributed over the next few weeks has sensitivity and specificity of more than 97 percent so that is great news.

That’s great Waiting

Germany sound ready too

This thread has disappeared from I'm on - it's annoying me as it's very interesting and factual and I keep having to search for it!

@WaitingForSummerAgaindo we have any further inclination of when that might actually happen though ? I was initially so relieved by the antibody test news but I feel like a lot of false hope was given with it and then it’s gone quiet. Maybe because still being validated so I’m clinging on to hope.

www.facebook.com/TED/videos/864908193982636/

TED talk had an interview with John Burn-Murdoch yesterday about the analysis of the graphs it was really interesting and worth a watch.

@Bimbleboo this is hopefully a link to the company the government has ordered from:

www.surescreen.com/products/covid-19-coronavirus-rapid-test-cassette

3.5million ordered by the government, possibly not all from them as think there are a few similar tests now. Hopefully they will be available over next couple of weeks from what my colleague has said.

This is the radio programme referred to earlier (I think).
More or Less Coronavirus Special
www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m000gwy8

Hi, been following the thread for a while, can anyone help me understand the following? The numbers seem different or I’m reading them wrong.

I know it’s the daily mail
Thanks

EThreepwood thanks for that video, it was great.
Burn-Murdoch is clear and easy to understand. The new graph he shows is great, I'll start pasting that one here. Many people are asking about when countries turn the corner and the new graph is the best at illustrating that as it happens, which it is beginning to do in Italy as the daily numbers plateau, and hopefully will begin to descend any day now.

Worldometer seems to update when region totals are confirmed (sometimes it’s looked like the UK total for the day has been low, but it’s turned out later on that not all 4 NHS regions were in the total at the time we’d been looking at it).

Knowing that about the UK means I would expect similar to happen to other countries totals (I don’t know how the health system is divided in Spain nor what official bodies are responsible for reporting).

The online papers are sometimes a bit trigger happy (wanting to be the first with the news) so might be compiling from non-official unverified, sources (such as raw hospital data that later needs a bit of sorting out due to deaths occurring in a slightly different time period to the official recorded period).

John Hopkins is a good source to look at for country-by-country data because they are trying to standardise methodology across all countries. They prioritise accuracy over speed. The FT graphs are via John Hopkins’ data:

coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

—————-

Re: my musings on Cumbria’s surprising numbers yesterday, Sky just mentioned that the Barrow primary headteacher with the virus has sadly passed away. What an awful loss for not just her family, but all the children she has taught, and the community itself.

This isn’t new-news, just new to me, reports of her death date from the 24th of March. I wasn’t really listening but I think Sky mentioned her as part of a list of notable deaths (mostly amongst HCP).

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/education-52018309

If you take Covid out of the equation, elderly folk on full ventilation ie: intubation, do not survive when taken off, or if they do, they only survive for a couple of weeks after. In the same way they do not survive CPR.

A pp said that 50% are coming out of ICU, but the % for the elderly is almost zero, as far as I understand.

It looks like Scottish deaths will be lower as we started the lockdown earlier in the journey:

www.edinburghnews.scotsman.com/health/coronavirus/early-lockdown-means-scottish-death-rate-will-be-lower-2524987

The FT have changed their graphing method.

www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest

They’re now showing the number of new cases/deaths in the previous 7 days from a starting point of 200 new cases per week or 20 new deaths per week. It shows the curve plateauing very clearly.

Cases graph and deaths graph

As in Italy’s curve beginning to plateau for cases, and less clearly for deaths.

I guess the cases curve plateauing might be partly due to the limit in how many tests they can perform in a week.

Is anyone tracking/graphing testing numbers for the UK. I keep hearing from Gove and other politicians that Britain is in the top group of testing/testers but what does that mean.
On the BBC Coronavirus Newscast Podcast they quoted a number of 8300 tested Tuesday or Wednesday (?) and saying there were a similar number of tests the “day” before.
So not very close to 10,000 a day I “thought” had been claimed by Politicians.
Then there is the “capacity” for testing against the actual number tested.
Then there is the shortage of chemicals that, perhaps I am wrong, that has been denied by the Industries involved.
Testing, testing, testing is the mantra from the WHO where is Britain in all this.
This may or may not be relevant but I live in Luxembourg where this week testing is at 1500 per day (with the tests becoming available to anyone with mild symptoms from today) which with a population of 600,000 equates to 160,000 tests a day for a country with a population of 65 million, like the UK.

Just watching the Burn-Murdoch video, I see he’s the FT analyst!