Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 2

[Barracker]

A follow on thread from here

Please try to keep it data driven, factual and civil.

www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

And yea it was someone on Mumsnet. They told crunchycarrot to pop off and amend their graph to start both from then tenth death.

‘Days since 10th death’ is a figure absolutely tons of official data compilers worldwide are using. It hasn’t just been made up by some rando on Mumsnet. 😂😂😂😂

Here’s a Berlin based company, for example:

blog.datawrapper.de/coronaviruscharts/

Apologies is this has already been covered but are the mortality demographics for the uk published anywhere? I’ve seen % per age group for China but not for the uk.

I’ve not seen that info for deaths, but there is info on the first 775 critical care admissions that might be of interest (apologies if you’ve already seen it: www.icnarc.org/DataServices/Attachments/Download/b5f59585-5870-ea11-9124-00505601089b )

I think more data needs to be published too.

For example breakdown of underlying health conditions, age, BMI, previous illness, smokers, male and female, cancer, chemo now or previous etc.

I know this is a horrific disease and is attacking any human it can migrate and reproduce within. But there must be some pattern somewhere regards to outcome, or amount of viral load and illness/outcome.

Or am I just hanging onto hope because it feels so out of control and as if we are just sitting ducks ........ waiting ........

Yeah - just like that ^ DuLANG

Yes,and the FT graph that gets posted daily is from the 10th death. Someone on Mumsnet did not just make it up.

And FT get their info from John Hopkins University!

I expect ICNARC will continue to report on Critical Care cases, verifying data must be quite a challenge. Here’s their main page to bookmark for future reports: www.icnarc.org/

Will keep an eye out for similar orgs who are likely to be compiling equivalent data for hospital deaths outside of critical care and in the community too.

Here’s more info about the ONS death statistics (presumably where we will be able to view future weekly reports):

www.ons.gov.uk/news/statementsandletters/deathsrelatingtothecoronaviruscovid19

I think we're all kind of saying "yep, this is what the predictions based on the science said, that logically peak infection comes 14-20 days after lockdown give or take (we are on day 21 with peak predicted between 3-10th April) with peak death numbers coming later.

So logically the UK should peak between 6th-12th April, which is next week.

Spain is on day 18 of lockdown and I don't think we've (Spain) reached a peak of infections yet. Italy is saying it maybe aproaching its peak and they've been on lockdown a week longer. So, I think the UK will be more like the week of 12th April.

or later

Just realised from that FT graph. All the statisticians saying we are tracking France - that graph makes France also look like it's tracking Italy?!

How many deaths was there before the Uk locked down?

Quick hatchet job to try and make the ONS COVID19 chart more readable at a glance.

Age, sex, region

Boris’ TV announcement was 8.30pm on the 23rd March.

Cumulative UK deaths announced that day: 335.

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/23/coronavirus-at-a-glance-23-mar-evening

So, I think the UK will be more like the week of 12th April.

I don’t understand the timeline of the peak - surely for the UK it should be something like this:

• 23rd March: UK went into lockdown
• 28th-30th March: anyone infected on 23rd or just before starts developing symptoms (average is 5 days from point of infection to showing symptoms)
• 4th-6th April: anyone whose symptoms are worsening goes into hospital, meaning case numbers peak around this time

Where am I going wrong?

Our local hospital has said they expect the peak for our area to be 20th of April. . That’s what the chief exec said anyway.

But I guess he’s not an expert in epidemiology.

Just seen on sky news that a 13yo boy has been reported to die from CV. No underlying health issues. (Or at least none that were known)

This is some scary shit

@Utterlybutterly8 - my simple answer would be that even after lockdown, transmission continues. Remember, people are still out and about, some children still at school, people working including health workers, so there is still an exponential growth of infections going on albeit at a much reduced rate. So that rises up to keep the level higher for longer beyond the pre-lockdown infections you describe.

@DuLANGDuLANGDuLANG maybe stop with the patronising crying laughing emoji. It's not very nice

Not all the answer to that Utterly, but remember if one person in the household has it, very likely to pass it on to others too. In China, I think they removed infected individuals and quarantined them - but we're obviously not doing that.

Telegraph are reporting the death of a 13 year old London boy too.

www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/coronavirus-covid-19-news-updates-cases-deaths-flights-latest/#update-20200331-2029

A 12 year old Belgian girl has died too.

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/metro.co.uk/2020/03/31/girl-12-becomes-youngest-europe-die-coronavirus-12482929/amp/

And a 14 year old Portuguese boy:

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/boy-14-skin-condition-youngest-21774847.amp

And a 16 year old French girl:

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/girl-16-no-health-conditions-21764238.amp

All reported within the last 4 days.

Transmission within families.

This is a big thing.
We're all quarantined together in the UK. I've mentioned upthread I think, but this was something they came down in like a ton of bricks in China.
People were quickly removed and quarantined from their families.

Here, the peak will be delayed because person number 1 in a family may be infected, then number 2, then number 3. The cycle can keep continuing and stretching out the peak.

This thread gives me a little control of the situation in my head. Thank you