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Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 2

983 replies

Barracker · 29/03/2020 14:33

A follow on thread from here

Please try to keep it data driven, factual and civil. Flowers

www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

OP posts:
Thread gallery
67
DuLANGDuLANGDuLANG · 31/03/2020 20:48

It's not very nice

Really? You genuinely made me LOL.
Apologies, I thought you were making a joke at our expense.

So much is lost in text, isn’t it?

Looking further at the Cumbria numbers, they had 9 confirmed cases as early as Feb 14th, so yes, looks like an early ‘community spread’.

KittenVsBox · 31/03/2020 20:55

@Utterlybutterly8
Peak in hospital admissions may well be then, but people are in hospital for a while before they die - so add on another 5 days for death, and you are pretty much agreeing with the peak date. So I guess it depends on if you are talking peak new cases or peak deaths. Most places seem to be comparing deaths.

BirdandSparrow · 31/03/2020 20:58

In terms of peak death toll, the UK is nowhere near that.

Utterlybutterly8 · 31/03/2020 21:04

So I guess it depends on if you are talking peak new cases or peak deaths.

I was talking peak (hospital) cases, not deaths.

Here, the peak will be delayed because person number 1 in a family may be infected, then number 2, then number 3. The cycle can keep continuing and stretching out the peak.

That makes sense, thanks.

Barracker · 31/03/2020 21:12

To be honest, horehound, you doubling down that someone on Mumsnet invented the standard of measuring from 10th death is worth a bit of a giggle. I'd have given it a quick Google before sticking to my guns.

I'm not sure the various universities, analysts and global media outlets publishing the data are eagerly scouring Mumsnet for their graphs!

It's a moot point, anyway. Whether you use the seemingly global standard beginning at 10, which the overwhelming majority of global analyses seem to do, or whether you lop off the beginning of everyone's trajectories (not sure why you would do this except to massage your message), Italy, France and the UK are still extremely similar, and it's really apparent what's coming next.

I don't see the point in the repetitive denialism. The numbers are right there. What were Italy's stats 14, 15, 16, 17 days after the tenth death?
And what were ours?

Or, we can simply take a look at the thread in a week.
A week from today, on April 7th, we will have suffered between 5000 and 6000 deaths, if we continue following the pattern of Italy, and if the data is properly reported without interruption.
Noone wants this to be true.
But we know it is likely.

It is difficult enough that we are all here trying to prepare ourselves emotionally and mentally for that possibility, without others implying that the only way to face this crisis is to deny reality and shut down thought. In others.

There is real value in the people on this thread coming together and discussing what they see. Forewarned is forearmed.

OP posts:
MagisCapulus · 31/03/2020 21:15

Where are the filter graphs above from please?

DuLANGDuLANGDuLANG · 31/03/2020 21:23

The FT ones, Magis?

If so, they are here: www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest

Utterlybutterly8 · 31/03/2020 21:40

A week from today, on April 7th, we will have suffered between 5000 and 6000 deaths, if we continue following the pattern of Italy, and if the data is properly reported without interruption. Noone wants this to be true. But we know it is likely.

Is that assuming we’re 16 days behind Italy? Truly terrifying Sad

Horehound · 31/03/2020 21:58

Honestly @Barracker I don't have time. I have a young baby to look after and steal what free time I have to look at Mumsnet.
This thread is too bitchy for my liking. Bye

ViSovari · 31/03/2020 22:04

I’m really enjoying the critical analysis on this thread and a lot of it backs up a lot of what I see on Twitter from academics in the field.
Similar to what a PP said, I did a biological sciences degree and work in the industry and this is fascinating and I have followed it since it first appeared in China.
I find there is real value in critically discussing figures without all the emotive aspects. I appreciate this isn’t everyone’s cup of tea but it allows me to deal with a very out of my control (except social distancing) situation using the skills and training I have learned since university. It allows me to process this situation within as familiar a context as possible.
Thanks to everyone for their critical insights some I agree with some I don’t. But equally every point raised makes me think and research further and that can only be a good thing.

PertEllaTitsahoy · 31/03/2020 22:07

A week from today, on April 7th, we will have suffered between 5000 and 6000 deaths, if we continue following the pattern of Italy

I was asking about this earlier, and I'm still trying to formulate my thoughts but... In italy most if the cases seem to be contained within a particular region. Does this have any particular impact on their figures compared to ours overall?

MillicentMartha · 31/03/2020 22:07

@DuLANGDuLANGDuLANG The reported 9 cases on 14th Feb in the Cumbria news were the 9 cases in total in the UK. No confirmed ones in Cumbria at that point.

Bluntness100 · 31/03/2020 22:09

A week from today, on April 7th, we will have suffered between 5000 and 6000 deaths

Well we only have seven days to wait and see op.

DuLANGDuLANGDuLANG · 31/03/2020 22:23

Thanks for the correction, Millicent!

kittykat7210 · 31/03/2020 22:26

Can I ask a question, why is no one in the UK recovering? Our recovery figure (from what I can see) has remained on 135 recoveries total for 7 days...

peridito · 31/03/2020 22:27

This is off tangent - but does anyone think that households isolating because a member is infected is a policy based on reducing viral load ?

So that the thinking is that more people get it by being confined together but they get it mildly because they have been exposed to only one infected case ?

DuLANGDuLANGDuLANG · 31/03/2020 22:34

From the ICNARC critical care report, most of the first 775 to be admitted to the ICU were still under the care of the ICU.

Only 165 cases were ‘resolved’

The 135 on the PHE data site has been stuck like that forever. I don’t know why we aren’t publishing that data, but
I think it’s reasonably safe to assume that a large number of confirmed cases are yet to be resolved (either through discharge or death). It might be because official recovery means repeat testing and we don’t have adequate testing for all the suspected cases, let alone repeat tests for those who seem to be better following other clinical indicators (no fever, feeling well, full blood count normal etc).

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 2
chomalungma · 31/03/2020 22:37

Please remember that many many young people catch this and survive. Those aren't the ones mentioned. You only hear about the people who have died.

They are the ones you remember.

DuLANGDuLANGDuLANG · 31/03/2020 22:40

Makes sense Perdito.

Whole household isolation is potentially 3 boxes ticked:
1 Slows community spread
2 Allows for immunity to develop whilst minimising viral load 3 Contributes to herd immunity in a controlled family by family way, with households able to provide some support for each other while contracting it in turns.

FecktheBoss · 31/03/2020 22:48

Does anyone know just how accurate the nasal and throat swab tests are?

A poster on another thread said that 85% of people in hospital are testing negative but they must be showing symptoms to require hospital treatment.

DuLANGDuLANGDuLANG · 31/03/2020 23:01

Please remember that many many young people catch this and survive. Those aren't the ones mentioned. You only hear about the people who have died.

They are the ones you remember.

Thankfully, child death is relatively uncommon in the UK (less than 2000 children between the ages of 1-15 die each year with Cancer being the most frequent cause) so pretty much all child death is noteworthy in some way.
Hopefully Coronavirus will not add significant numbers to that total.

As yet, we have no idea of the recovery rate (nor the death rate, only the number of deaths). We are all hoping for the best.

Freshairimportanttoo · 31/03/2020 23:02

Really interested to know what our pandemic policy will be after this.

I can't see how it would be anything else other than immediate border closure and lock down? Track and trace on phones.

Ppe, proper facilties for separate entrances in hospitals, wards and bays and ultra quick testing....

chomalungma · 31/03/2020 23:05

I can't see how it would be anything else other than immediate border closure and lock down? Track and trace on phones

Lock down - again - we can't go through this for a long time

Maybe more social distancing, and more rapid pop up hospitals with well stocked PPE equipment and much better testing.

peridito · 31/03/2020 23:07

Feck I've not seen that comment but wonder if it's been said because such a high % of total tests are negative .

I think a) they've been testing all patients with respiritory issues
b) I'm guessing that those with Covid who get better need a couple of negative tests before discharge

I think there was a third reason but I'm too tired to recall it !

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