Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 2

[Barracker]

A follow on thread from here

Please try to keep it data driven, factual and civil.

www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

@Fartintheloft on the Coronavirus daily update the graph clearly shows we aren't tracking Italy.

And it's because someone on Mumsnet just decided to use the 10th death. If you change your graphs to use the 50th death, it changes things...

And like I said on my previous post. You can make the numbers look how you want them to look...

This thread is confusing.

It's looking very much like the prediction of 3-10th April for Italy's peak is going to be correct.

Nquartz- I'm British been in Italy since 1994.

Could I ask if anyone knows..

Has anyone seen what happens to test after 7 -14 days? They said after 7 you are less likely to be infectious. Or max 14. Do you still test positive after this?

Do you mean the graph the govt just showed, horehound?

That's because it excludes all data before the first 50 deaths. We accelerated quite fast in those earlier days which placed us on a higher trajectory.
So if you ignore those first 50 deaths, how quickly they happened and exclude that part of our growth, it changes how our trajectory looks.

Most comparisons tend to start after 10 deaths. This way the very earliest instability is excluded, but the majority of the trajectory is still tracked.

someone on Mumsnet

Lol no

Really, no

Are we likely to peak two weeks after Italy? Or is it (as I imagine) more complex than that?

I am pretty appalled that these people giving the daily briefings begin every answer with the word "...So.......".

Are the Italian cases still centred around Bergamo?

Lombardia is plateauing.
Bergamo is now the third most affected part, after Milan and Brescia.
Both infections and deaths falling though. About a 100 fewer deaths in Lombardia than yesterday and about 110 fewer infected.

Thanks Canterbury am I right in thinking that the vast majority of cases have been contained to a particular region of italy?

Spanish press is reporting that Italy thinks it is approaching its peak.

Fingers crossed for Italy. And Spain. And everyone.

Yes and yes. Overwhelmingly north west, I am south east and know nobody infected, but I know a fair few Brits.
I think we're all kind of saying "yep, this is what the predictions based on the science said, that logically peak infection comes 14-20 days after lockdown give or take (we are on day 21 with peak predicted between 3-10th April) with peak death numbers coming later.

Obviously this is the most dangerous time when people may be off guard, the town of Vo (first hotspot,) is back in lockdown after a new case was reported. Guy went to work and caught it outside the town.

Thanks again Canterbury.

Someone asked earlier what we get out of this thread. I studied biology at university and really enjoyed a microbiology module where we looked at viruses and flu pandemics and how they spread. So for me the current pandemic is academically interesting from a scientific point of view. I think as humans we assume too much about how we can manipulate nature, so its interesting to see what impact all our modelling and scientific knowledge will have on this outbreak.

I will continue to follow after it's over to see what the economic and social impacts willbe

@barracker they have started the graph at the same point got each country so I don't know what your point is because it's all relevant.
They have started all the deaths at 50, a much more reasonable number to begin with than 10imo.
And yea it was someone on Mumsnet. They told crunchycarrot to pop off and amend their graph to start both from then tenth death.
If we got crunchy to start it from the 50th then the graph would look like the one the government just showed.
You want to believe the Italy tracker, I see. 🤦🤷

Here's a graph of UK deaths v Italy deaths. No attempt made to align dates. It's a logarithmic scale.

You can see that there is negligible difference between the gradient of the UK now and that of Italy earlier. What will be important is how soon we begin to level off the increase.

Sorry, I just can't get the dates to swing round to a vertical alignment without cutting off.

@FATEdestiny in case you haven't checked - the dashboard has been updated.

Interesting thread from Peston on so called reagent shortage

Robert Peston
@Peston
.@michaelgove
said just now that the difficulty in increasing number of #COVID19 tests was due to a shortage of the relevant "chemcial reagents". Well I've just talked to the Chemical Industries Association, which represents the UK's very substantial chemicals industry. It...

Robert Peston
@Peston
·
23m
Replying to
@Peston
has contacted its members, and they've said there is no shortage of the relevant reagents. So the Association has now been in touch with @michaelgove
's office to find out what he means, because it is stumped. The Association also points out there was an industry chat with...
Robert Peston
@Peston
·
22m
a business minister today, who made no attempt to find out if there was a supply problem for the vital ingredients of Covid19 testing kits. So this question of why there aren't enough tests for the virus is an even bigger mystery. Also, if it turns out there is a shortage...
Robert Peston
@Peston
·
23m
these manufacturers are more than happy to increase their production. But they need to be asked, which has not happened. PS It was Labour MP @Bill_Esterson
who initially spotted this gap between what Gove said and what the industry believes to be true.

I am a university lecturer. Everyone in our and presumably all universities got an email say if you know anything about COVID 19 please get in touch. So possibly looking for new advisors.

I wonder if anyone from this thread will answer the call.