Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 2

[Barracker]

A follow on thread from here

Please try to keep it data driven, factual and civil.

www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

DrSheldonCooperPHD, Bufferingkisses

Red is UK
Black is Italy

Italy's figures are juxtapositioned against "days since 10th death" for a direct comparison.
UK are currently on the 19th day after our 10th death (blue). Directly in the next column for comparison is Italy's figures for the 19th day after their tenth death.

Explanation with caveats

Not sure why that came up, must have linked the wrong video

Does anyone know if the Italian and Spanish figures are of all deaths or just of those, in hospital?

From family I understand they are just hospital deaths, but can't officially confirm. But certainly France doesn't include them, and is, like the UK, now doing an exercise to include them belatedly, so their figures will undoubtedly go up too.

The ONS figures are interesting inasmuch as up to 20th March, we hadn't had any more deaths than a usual rolling 5 year average. It will be very interesting to see their next weekly update as to how many "excess" death Covid is causing.

I’m off to poke about in the yard for a bit but I intend to learn the difference between acute and foundation trusts, NHS regions, CCGs, CLHARCs, Regional Hubs, Critical Care Networks and whatever other bewildering terms a search for ‘map of NHS’ shows up.

And what they actually mean by ‘upper tier’ local authoritary and ‘unitary authority’ and how LAs fit/don’t fit to hospital trusts and NHS regions.

(Both screen shots from the Surrey Live article I posted earlier)

Spain were shocked when they discovered deaths in care homes quite recently

Governor of New York giving press conference right now. He is so much better than Trump. Im listening thinking if I lived in NYC, I'd trust this chap. The difference in transparency between him and POTUS is incredible

Yes it's all quite complex, isn't it, Dulang

I would appreciate the updated Italy/uk +16 days chart as well if anyone has a copy?

I can understand people don't want to think the UK is on the same trajectory as Italy or Spain, obviously that's shit. But it is clear the deaths ARE following the same path. And I'm not really sure why that's a surprise. Both Italy and Spain locked down later than they should have, but once they did (especially in Spain) it was quite a restrictive lockdown. The UK didn't. It took longer, dithered and has a less restrictive lockdown than Italy and Spain (schools partly open, exercise allowed). It would seem obvious that the UK would then follow the same trajectory. Shit, but really not surprising.

DuLANG although Portsmouth, IOW and Southampton are in Hampshire they have separate LA for health and education and care. Have done since before I was born! It means they have separate budgets etc. But, obviously anyone between Portsmouth and Southampton that have the hospitals comes under Hampshire so they get treated there. So if you live in Portsmouth and are Ill in QA you are counted in Portsmouth. If you live in Hampshire and are Ill in QA you are counted as Hampshire.
It's actually quite difficult sometimes because you may need a service that comes under Portsmouth when you are outside of Portsmouth so under Hampshire. So funding gets crossed over somehow. I've no idea how but they they have Solent and southern etc nhs trusts.

Agree Fate listening to him now. Thought his honesty about the fact they are following this virus but need to get ahead of it was good.
It's not great to know we aren't ahead yet as a global entity. But it's better than all the stuff Trump and BJ say about "we will beat it".
At least he's saying we will - but we yet don't know how.

It’s probably too complex for my tiny mind, but attempting to learn keeps brain cells active while sat on the sofa!

This article from HSJ has some interesting graphs at the bottom.
Can anyone shed any light on the reference to rural Cumbria? Because that certainly cannot be explained via international shipping routes and population density.

www.hsj.co.uk/acute-care/revealed-the-remote-and-rural-hospitals-at-threat-from-coronavirus/7027268.article

www.nwemail.co.uk/news/18346442.number-confirmed-coronavirus-cases-cumbria-rises-340/

Baaaahhhhh
Thanks. Yes I know about France, was just wondering about the big 2 in Europe.

Midge
Yes, you’re right. They were surprised at the dead and dying abandoned. So this the answer. I just wondered if we were comparing like with like iyswim.

Thanks everyone

I think I remember seeing a cluster outbreak early on in Cumbria, which may have spiralled before measures were taken.

The Isle of Wight is not part of Hampshire today, it is a separate county. But the health STP is Hampshire and the IOW, as is the police force. It has its own fire and rescue service and NHS Trust and CCG.

Yes I think it is highly unlikely we will be as bad as Italy

I think we will be roughly the same as Italy - perhaps a little bit lower - but 16 days behind.

Does anyone know the latest Italian figures for today? They've been on a downward trend over the last five days in terms of new cases, but I see the Worldometer hasn't updated yet for 31st March. If it's a lower figure again today that will be very encouraging news.

Apologies, I see the Worldometer has updated figures for Italy - just not the graph.

4053 new cases and 837 deaths, compared to 4050 new cases and 812 deaths yesterday.

So it's about the same as yesterday. Let's hope it stays that way or declines tomorrow.

Utterlybutterly It's 4053 new cases in Italy today, against 4050 yesterday, so not a decrease but at least stable

ITALY:
4053 new cases and 837 new deaths.
similar to yesterday.

Total Coronavirus Cases: 105,792
Deaths: 12,428

Let's hope it's starting to plateau there.

2.5 weeks since Chelthnam and Crufts

Will we not be higher than Italy with our more relaxed social distancing?