Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 2

[Barracker]

A follow on thread from here

Please try to keep it data driven, factual and civil.

www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

Figure is just hospitalised deaths.

That's not the answer I wanted, but it's the answer I expected.

I make it just over 3000 new cases for the UK.

pink bars are daily deaths
red line is cumulative deaths

The probables are based on a mortality rate of 1%

You can see here that to go from 10 to 100 took 7 days and to go from 100 to 1000 took 10 days... it would be likely then that to go from 1k to 10k would take around 10ish days? That would be around 8th of April.

But that wouldn't factor in the lockdown, the effects of which, according to this xls woudn't start showing till 4th April (approx 6,600 dead)

I'd be interested to know what you feel you gain from it? (not being sarky, the psychologically of people's coping strategies are interesting).

I followed this obsessively from January to early / mid March and then gave up - I can't control it, I can do my best to stay safe but trying to predict and track it made me anxious.

Do you feel more in control?

@RU562341 the source I posted specifically says 1789 hospitalised deaths.

The gov site has now updated

As of 9am on 31 March 2020, a total of 143,186 people have been tested, of which 25,150 were confirmed positive.

As of 5pm on 30 March 2020, of those hospitalised in the UK, 1,789 have died.

So it IS just hospitalised cases not community?

I was working in Winchester 9-11th just down the road and were very aware of this fact. I washed my hands a lot those 3 days!

I can imagine! Hope they are their families have all made a good recovery - no way to tell if confirmed cases amongst school children mid-March is an indicator of good, early testing or a sign of something more tragic to come.
I hope it’s the former.

IOW:
6 ICU beds
1100 male prisoners.

This is a really sad news story from yesterday:
IOW teenager, a long term patient at Queen Alexandra Hospital in Portsmouth and has caught the virus whilst on the ward.

www.countypress.co.uk/news/18345709.tragic-isle-wight-teenager-cam-contracted-coronavirus/

This is obviously a case of an ‘underlying condition’ but if Cam wasn’t in the hospital he may well not have caught it. No wonder NHS hospitals have been discharging as many non-COVID patients as possible.

Sending my best wishes to Cameron and his family on the off-chance they come across this. Poor lad has clearly been through quite enough already. Life can be so unfairly shitty 💐

Re the 40 community deaths. As far as I can work it out, up to the 20th March NHS England had declared 170 corona deaths, these were in hospitals. But ONS has found that 210 death certificates in total cited corona. This includes the 170 in hospitals that we already Knew about, so the 40 extra are the community deaths.

So up to the 20th March there were an additional 40 deaths in the community.

The Public Heath England page hasn't updated yet. Any one know why? Does it normally update st 2pm?

www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ae5dda8f86814ae99dde905d2a9070ae

@FATEdestiny that page doesn't update at 2pm - can be 3pm or as late as early evening

The PHE website updates whenever. I spent a day driving myself a bit bonkers with the refresh button. Now I don’t expect it to change before tea time.

• • • DAILY UPDATE * * * MARCH 31st

Total UK cases: 25,150
New UK cases: 3,009
Total UK Deaths: 1,789
New UK Deaths: 381

If we are tracking one country continuously then it will continuously be mentioned. It's not obsessive. It's statistical.

Same as if we were 2nd richest country to X country for the whole year we'd keep saying the top country was X amount percentage wise above us each month. It's how we record and compare.

Someone mentioned the worldometer discrepancies. I've noticed that when the media such as sky tv publish figures, they often change a little within an hour or two - even if they were ostensibly complete for the UK. Worldometer uses these figures as its source and doesn't always note the later amendments immediately. I've noticed that after I post the update here it sometimes changes later the same day.

I think occasionally Worldometer sweeps any leftover amendments into the next day because there's too much fidgeting in the official stats some days to stay on top of it.

Is this a replacement for the 'worried about Coronavirus #xx' thread as it seems to have disappeared.

the recent reductions seem to have gone by the wayside today sadly

DoH Twitter feed has updated:

*"UPDATE on coronavirus (#COVID19) testing in the UK:

As of 9am 31 March, a total of 143,186 people have been tested of which 25,150 tested positive.

As of 5pm on 30 March, of those hospitalised in the UK, 1,789 have sadly died.*"

I’m guessing IOW are included in the same top tier statistics as Portsmouth?

IOW is a separate local authority and Portsmouth as a city is governed as a separate unitary LA too I think. It says on the HSJ link that the IOW trust have had 2 deaths in comparison with 1 in Southampton and a huge number in the 40s in Portsmouth.

Du my dad had chemo at that hospital last week. Mum has it there tomorrow. It scares the life out of me. Ds also goes there for his appointments but luckily is due to see his other neuro (at Southampton) next week instead as it's that neuros turn! Had a phone all to say it'll be telephone appointment! Obviously I expected a cancellation so this is actually good. However as it's to discuss the recent genetics tests and update on the genetics study he's on I can't see it being a long conversation. Something tells me ds genetics tests may be on hold currently in favour for other genetics studies if slightly more importance! Ds isn't going to make a miraculous recovery from his condition knowing exactly how his genetic variant manifests!

I would appreciate the updated Italy/uk +16 days chart as well if anyone has a copy? If anyone has a live copy I'll happily update myself from there!

@inlawsimnotsure people cope different ways, people are interested in different things. Personally I found today's jump less scary because I partly expected it from Italy's figures. Lower would have been good news, on track would be very sad but expected. Above would worry me. Without this thread and focusing on the figures every day is scary regardless of if it is "good" news or bad. Constantly questioning people's motives is getting wearing, it's a thread about numbers where people discuss the numbers, can we leave it there?

Sending my best wishes to Cameron and his family on the off-chance they come across this. Poor lad has clearly been through quite enough already. Life can be so unfairly shitty

Indeed. Poor lad

Afaik Portsmouth and IOw are one authority, Southampton is another and then Hampshire is the rest of Hampshire.
It's the same way for education too.

Thank you for the continuing dedication from many posters to bring updates.

Does anyone know if the Italian and Spanish figures are of all deaths or just of those, in hospital?

I don't think the IOW is part of Portsmouth. There is Portsmouth City Council which is not part of Hampshire CC based in Winchester. The IOW is a separate (unitary) local authority from both. It has the same police force though.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/IsleoffWightCouncil

My son is a mathmo and suggested to look at the numbers on a logarithmic scale

aatishb.com/covidtrends/

Yes a colleague sent that earlier. There is a video explaining it.