Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 2

[Barracker]

A follow on thread from here

Please try to keep it data driven, factual and civil.

www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

These are some stats on gender and age groups from Luxembourg where I live.
Granted a small country and small numbers.

That spreadsheet is very useful, thanks @peridito

@LilMissRe thank you for sharing the informative video with the Korean infectious disease expert/doctor.

What jumped out for me:

Most infections are in those in 20/30s as these are less likely to wear masks & socialise in bars etc. Not effectively socially distancing. Whilst symptoms usually mild they spread to others.

Masks do work and offer some protection for obvious reasons.

WHO have advised against masks for general public as they want to prevent public stockpiling and priority should obviously be for front line medical staff.

WHO have not advised against masks for the public in some countries in Asia as more of a cultural norm.

18 months, very best case, for vaccine but hope other drugs will have a positive effect that are already being used for other conditions.

Korea tracking & tracing & monitor via a quarantine AP on phone.

Korea were prepared as had MERS/SARS to deal with previously.

To add the Korean expert was also doubtful re: immunity stating quite a few had got Covid19 again after 5-7 days (?)

The Iceland data linked to by Puffin is interesting in that it shows a lower age group most affected .

Puffin said
"About 4% of the population have been tested so far. The health service is testing people exhibiting likely symptoms (cough, fever, aches) and a private biomedical research company are testing people with no symptoms (self selected volunteers)".

And as an aside what a thing of beauty ( caveat I'm an Arts graduate and have -0 numeracy skills ) the website ,graphics and wording the Iceland website is
www.covid.is/data

I see the ONS figures for total number of deaths per week, including deaths where respiratory disease was the underlying cause, have now been published up to w/b 20 March - not sure if this link is going to work, but here it is.

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales

So the ONS data shows 103 people on top of what we already know have sadly died this week?

Caveat...Apologies if I am wrong I tried to read it on my phone.

Is that 103 people just this week Livin or is it the total figure since coronavirus appeared?

As mentioned up thread, some European countries aren’t including deaths at home in their figures (France for one), so we shouldn’t be too alarmed if our total figure suddenly looks a lot higher compared to others.

Ireland does include deaths outside hospital in its figures. Nursing homes and other residential care facilities have been a huge focus of the government in the last few days and details have been published on the number of clusters of CV19 in nursing homes and other places.

"Of the 10,645 deaths registered in the week ending 20 March, 103 mentioned #COVID-19 on the death certificate "

The number of deaths involving covid-19 increased while the number of deaths from influenza & pneumonia decreased from the week before.

Sorry to go back a few pages but it is important to be aware of posters behaviour on other threads and I don't like being called a conspiracy theorist
bluntness
This thread page 24 www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3861236-Delay-in-todays-numbers?pg=24&order=
You said
"Yes, and it would make 33 in the previous 24 hours. What’s your point? It’s still an average of 65 per day over two days, and it’s still a down ward trajectory as Jenny Harris intimated when she said we were starting to see the actions bite in the numbers." In reference to UK figures.

There is also reference on that thread to you claiming on another thread that italian figures were being reported as too high.

I'm not getting involved any more but just feel there is an agenda that you are being disingenuous about.

Thanks @Laniakea. And that’s just people who died with CV outside of hospital?

Not properly following so sorry if already mentioned but this has just popped up

Thanks for the link to ONS.

I'm not sure I can work it out though? Wk 13/3 only 5 deaths which mention CV on death certificate. Previous week is 103?
Is that all CV deaths?
Because the actual number or mortalities and mortality due to respiratory disease is lower these weeks than previous ones (accounting for flu season coming to an end I suspect?)

it's really unclear isn't it? The Telegraph suggests it is additional non hospital deaths "Figures released today by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) shows that up to March 20, an additional 103 people had died at their house, flat or care homes with Covid-19 listed as a contributor"

So neuro over a 2 week period that's saying there were 40 community deaths due to CV19?

The figure for those two weeks isn't as horrifying as I suspected. I'd be interested to know how this compares to usual mortality rates in care homes this time of year.

whereas the guardian suggests differently ... that's why I think obsessing over daily figures is pointless - there are so many backlogs, logjams, delays & much media spin & confusion ... the figures will be verified & come out eventually.

Just jumping on to say that:

a) I'm finding this thread very helpful, calming and interesting, and

b) I've happened across a certain poster on various threads over the last few months, and I think their over-confident pronouncements should be taken with a bucket of salt...

Spain records record single-day death toll

Spain has recorded a record new single-day coronavirus death toll after 849 people died from the virus between Monday and Tuesday, reports my colleague Sam Jones in Madrid.

The country’s total number of cases now stands at 94,417 – up from 85,195 on Monday – and its death toll at 8,189.

It's bad here. :(

Yesterday's graphs:

www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-death-toll-higher-uk-hospitals-care-homes-office-national-statistics-a9437351.html

Good grief what is happening in the US? It's worrying. :(

ONS data released and now including Covid-19 deaths, see attached.

I think this data cannot be compared to the daily data being released. Some reasons for this include:

• ONS is England and Wales only
• ONS is all deaths over the Fri-Fri week with Covid-19 mentioned on the death certificate
• ONS is only registered deaths - so the point at which the family has registered the death certificate. So delay involved, it will include deaths registered in the week, not deaths that occurred in that week
• Moving forward, not sure what physical access families will have to register births, deaths and marriages? Don't know the answer but I'd assume there will be significant delays in registering deaths.

So in short, ONS will be a useful statistic to track and compare Covid-19 deaths with usual respiritary disease deaths. But I don't think it's useful for any comparison or reference to the daily deaths, which cover all of UK and are hospital only deaths (for now)

DuLANGDuLANGDuLANG - great resource at HSJ. I didn't know that publication existed so thank you for finding it and bringing to our attention.