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Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 2

983 replies

Barracker · 29/03/2020 14:33

A follow on thread from here

Please try to keep it data driven, factual and civil. Flowers

www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

OP posts:
Thread gallery
67
LangClegsInSpace · 30/03/2020 22:09

Dr Harries was asked at a recent government press briefing why we were not following WHO's advice and she said (paraphrasing) that WHO advice was there for all countries and lots of them didn't have well developed public health systems or lots of scientific experts like we do (I will find the clip).

Here it is:

The question is asked at 32:40 and Dr Harries gives her response at 36:23

LilMissRe · 30/03/2020 22:10

My brother forwarded this youtube video- some interesting points about how S Korea and other asian countries have health with this, and why western Europe is struggling.

LilMissRe · 30/03/2020 22:11

dealt *

BirdandSparrow · 30/03/2020 22:25

That twitter twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1244721737842991105 makes it clear the UK IS still on the same path as Italy.
The US is looking a bit apocalpytic......

whenwillthemadnessend · 30/03/2020 22:30

Place mark. Great thread.

FATEdestiny · 30/03/2020 23:26

@Bluntness100
I meant other than France, the poster said I’d done it twice

I'm weary about answering because I don't seek to embarrass you. But you just keep making outlandish claims and I wish you would stop.

[Attached 1] You thought Italy peaked 21st March.

[Attached 2] You thought UK was on a downward trajectory on a day when daily deaths increased, because you didn't understand the process of reporting time changing.

With every due respect, I try to be really level headed and polite with you. Please just deal in facts and tracking them.

Numbers in the graphs might go down - Like they have in the UK for the last 2 days. When posters are cautious with these facts it is not due to being pessimistic or conspirisy theories. We just have a bit of understanding about population dynamics.

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 2
Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 2
Eggcited · 31/03/2020 07:01

The US is looking a bit apocalpytic......

Agreed. It looks bloody terrifying over there.

itsgettingweird · 31/03/2020 07:02

Fate thanks for new table adding France. If we match up their 33 deaths with our 35 it places us 5 days behind as a starting point.
But it also places us at a point where we are tracking above them but we are having a slower day by day rate of mortality atm which may place us along their path.

LivinLaVidaLoki · 31/03/2020 07:11

FATE The quote about tracking france was from Patrick Valance at yesterdays briefing.

Myfriendanxiety · 31/03/2020 07:15

I’ve just read that our figures are as much as 11 days behind as it takes that long to register a death- anyone know if this is correct? If so all this tracking seems meaningless when we are working with data that is so old.

Also that they are going to include all deaths now, not just hospitalised ones so figures are expected to jump quickly.

Lordamighty · 31/03/2020 07:38

Are other countries including deaths at home from Coronavirus in their figures because if they’re not it’s going to make ours look a lot worse in comparison.

Myfriendanxiety · 31/03/2020 07:45

@lordamight I’m not sure. If not then it means comparisons are even further out of the window.

Does anyone know whether the new drive through NHS test centres are included in the new cases figure if picked up through there?

midgebabe · 31/03/2020 07:57

I would guess it's more likely that all countries are equally behind in reporting numbers

Gfplux · 31/03/2020 08:02

This may have been reported elsewhere but this from the Politico daily email.
Quote
Ultimately this government will be judged on how well the NHS copes with the crisis, which is why a close analysis of the daily death toll figures has become a grim national pastime. And this morning will see the first publication by the Office for National Statistics of coronavirus deaths outside U.K. hospitals — so in care homes and other parts of the community — giving us a far more accurate picture of the total number. Chief Scientific Adviser Patrick Vallance said at the daily presser last night that he did not expect this added increase to be “large,” although a government source tells the Telegraph that “it may be a significant one.” The ONS normally publishes new data at 9.30 a.m. each day.
End quote

Bluntness100 · 31/03/2020 08:07

I’ve just read that our figures are as much as 11 days behind as it takes that long to register a death- anyone know if this is correct

Yes, it’s due primarily to the post mortems, but also notifying family. The more deaths, the longer it takes to get through all the post mortems sadly, as there are limited staff to do it.

They said it was the difference between assumed Covid deaths and confirmed Covid deaths, they need to do the post mortem and confirm it, if the person was not tested and confirmed to have it before death, some people die quite quickly sadly.

Gfplux · 31/03/2020 08:08

Even more from that Politico.eu email.
About statistics. I hope the links remain live.
Quote
Speaking of death stats: The FT’s daily graph of doom was published at 9.30 p.m. last night and shows the U.K. still steadily shadowing the death tolls in Italy and France. Vallance’s own version, published a few hours earlier (it’s the fourth slide in this series), was a little more positive, suggesting Britain and France are in fact well below Italy’s curve. As Playbook noted yesterday, the discrepancy appears to be based on where you start counting from. The government starts from the first day that 50 deaths were reported in each country, whereas the FT starts from 10.

The other issue with these comparisons … is that it’s unclear quite how accurate the comparative data is from around the world, even regarding the number of deaths. The U.K. will only be adding care home deaths today, for example, and with a significant time lag. There was speculation at the weekend that China has hugely under-reported the number of COVID-19 deaths. And writing in the Telegraph today, International Business Editor Ambrose Evans-Pritchard suggests Italy’s figures too may be wildly inaccurate. “The mayors of Bergamo and Brescia — two COVID-19 hotspots — say the reported deaths in their cities are a small fraction of the true numbers,” he notes.

But but but: These charts still provide an invaluable service, and if — like Playbook — you just can’t get enough of them, there’s another to add into the mix today. The Centre for Cities think tank has this morning launched a daily tracker of confirmed COVID-19 cases in towns and cities across the U.K. Its graph charts the number of cases per head of population in each urban center, and will be updated every afternoon. Interestingly it suggests Sheffield and Slough are currently second and third to London in terms of the scale of local outbreaks.
End Quote

Utterlybutterly8 · 31/03/2020 08:10

Are other countries including deaths at home from Coronavirus in their figures because if they’re not it’s going to make ours look a lot worse in comparison.

Someone posted a very informative El Pais article a few pages back which suggested that other European countries aren’t recording deaths at home either. I can’t remember which countries it focused on, but I think France and the Netherlands were mentioned.

I believe we’re due to start including these figures from today so expect to see a spike in the death rate possibly from this afternoon.

Patrick Vallance said yesterday that hospital admissions are now “rising gradually”, which is hopeful.

We’ve been in lockdown for just over a week now and we know that it takes 5 days to develop symptoms on average and another 5-7 days to develop serious symptoms that require hospitalization. Does that mean we could see a spike in hospital admissions 10-14 days from last Monday - so between Wednesday and Sunday this week?

Eggcited · 31/03/2020 08:13

so expect to see a spike in the death rate possibly from this afternoon.

The pessimist in me also expects to see a spike in the number of people moaning that lock down isn't working.

DuLANGDuLANGDuLANG · 31/03/2020 08:19

I got marooned on the other thread. Not read all this one yet.

It’s HSJ that are tracking via health trust.

They are an Industry specific journal, so perhaps the raw data they see is internal (but still from PHE) rather than on the public website?

www.hsj.co.uk/news/coronavirus-deaths-mapped-east-of-england-fatalities-beginning-to-surge/7027212.article

VivaLeBeaver · 31/03/2020 08:23

France aren’t recording deaths at home. Saw something on the news the other day about all the people in nursing homes dying from it who aren’t being recorded. They interviewed an undertaker who said it was non stop in nursing homes.

Utterlybutterly8 · 31/03/2020 08:29

Also, if it’s correct that it takes 14 days from point of infection to hospitalization, that means hospital admissions should start to plateau and decrease early next week, as we’ll be 14 days into lockdown. That’s assuming lockdown is working of course.

Does that sound right?

DuLANGDuLANGDuLANG · 31/03/2020 08:31

www.hsj.co.uk/coronavirus/17913.subject

This is the HSJ feed for all articles on the topic.

The most recent map says

The data was collected from 5pm on Saturday to 5pm on Sunday, but the need to inform relatives and authenticate reports mean that some of the actual deaths occurred longer ago, in this case as early as 13 March.

The figures do not include those who have died of the virus outside hospitals, which is likely to be an ever more significant amount.

Gwynfluff · 31/03/2020 08:33

Sheffield main city nhs trust is testing its staff thoroughly, hence why it may be a hotspot.

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.examinerlive.co.uk/news/health/striking-heat-map-shows-spread-17984902.amp

peridito · 31/03/2020 08:43

@Barracker

Worldometers has some numbers re testing per million of population ,but not updated v often
www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/covid-19-testing/

this chap gives UK figures per day
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1eTKeK9vRxgw0KhvKxPCaDrfaHnxQP-n9TsLzsEymviY/htmlview#

peridito · 31/03/2020 08:47

@LangClegsInSpace I share your pain over Jenny Harries .I've not relistened to her so may ne slightly wrong ,but it was the way she said ( regarding WHO and testing )

"the clue is in the name WORLD "

patronising much ?

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