Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 2

[Barracker]

A follow on thread from here

Please try to keep it data driven, factual and civil.

www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

Should be some disagreement on interpretation of figures above

And if you look carefully at the bottom of your graph you’ll see the dates. Mar 30 is not on there yet.

No problem georgedawes light relief much needed

Yes, it's grim right now, and even worse at present for you in France :(

I watched a few episodes of Pandemic last night on Netflix. It's extraordinary how they predicted this!

Following

(And yes, fewer doctors usually work at weekends but I’m married to one and can confirm that he’s now working every weekend and his annual leave is cancelled until at least July).

Ok, say France hasn’t peak or plateaued, it’s still great we are tracking them and not italy, right, and I can’t see any reason to not believe the chief scientific officer. What would be the point in covering up deaths, surely the government if anything would wish it to look worse than it is, to get folks to stay home and justify the action.

Would be a bit of an own goal, no to lock down, spend billions then pretend it was so much better than it was?

Either way time will tell, but I for one am comforted there is hope in the numbers and we aren’t tracking Italy. God forbid.

On a few occasions I've seen incorrect figures on worldometers for Spain, compared to the figures released by the Spanish government.

Thanks to your husband, and all his colleagues, Daffodil.

I’m not sure of what this thread is about

I entitled it
"Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 2"

It's a thread for people who want to track the numbers, look at graphs, and analyse data themselves or read the analysis of others.
I'm sorry if that objective wasn't clear in the last thread or this one.

Lots of us find this focus on data, and analysis, and interpretation really helpful, calming even. There are some brilliant contributions to the thread, and sparkling insights into how the data can be interpreted.

It doesn't sound like that's your cup of tea.
Fair enough. This thread doesn't really float your boat.

Could you maybe just leave us to it, please?

Thanks @Bluntness100 that's the point I was trying to make.

amp.ft.com/content/f3796baf-e4f0-4862-8887-d09c7f706553?__twitter_impression=true

FT article on UK testing figures.

Livin thanks
Barracker, apologies, that’s totally my cup of tea but I’m not really seeing it, or forecasts, just seems to me a desperate bid to find holes in the numbers and prove we are following Italy, despite all evidence to the contrary.

Interesting though, just struggling to see Any wider analysis or interpretation past we are following Italy and the government is covering it up.

I’ll keep watching though because what you describe would be fab

Not quite sure how a thread posting the official daily data figures is somehow a conspiracy theory.

@bluntness100. I do know where you are coming from, but can honestly say that no poster on here is trying to prove a conspiracy. I very much doubt anyone here is wishing to track any country in particular.

As you know, analysis of data requires constant scrutiny of provenance, validity and studying of trends. You have to be critical. That's all it is. Scientists and academics do this everyday.

We often have to remove ourselves and any attachment from the numbers to let the numbers speak for themselves, and as we are dealing with life here, it is understandably more difficult to do, but truthfully, this thread is innocently just looking at numbers for answers, and allowing us the space to ask questions. :)

ScrimpshawTheSecond Ah OK I read that and I think I see where the misunderstanding comes from.

“Early results from deCode Genetics indicate that a low proportion of the general population has contracted the virus and that about half of those who tested positive are non-symptomatic,” Thorolfur Guðnason, Iceland’s chief epidemiologist, was quoted as saying BuzzFeed News. “The other half displays very moderate cold-like symptoms.”

To volunteer for testing at deCODE you must be basically asymptomatic, or I guess they allow 'very moderate cold-like symptoms'. If your symptoms are more worrying you have to be in quarantine and you are not allowed to go to deCODE. Then you would be tested by the healthcare services. The journalist seems to have missed the point that there are two testing programmes going on in parallel in Iceland or is expecting people to understand that the 'general population' by definition are not seriously symptomatic.

No desperation, just critical analysis. It's obviously a daily changing situation, and none of us know the end game here. I very much doubt anyone wants to 'be like Italy' anyway. In any case, as we've all said, sadly Spain looks the worst case scenario at present. Noone is saying we're tracking that trajectory.

The data against Italy is more mixed, and will of course become clearer as time goes on. This chart shows why many think the data shows we have very similar numbers to Italy -twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1244368708249817091/photo/1

bluntness this is the second thread I've been on with you where you've said countries have peaked and are on a downward trajectory despite all evidence to the contrary. I'm starting to wonder what your agenda is? It's very odd....

Where did I say someone had peaked who hadn’t?

Why would I have an “agenda” honestly not everything Is a conspiracy, ☺️

Where did I say someone had peaked who hadn’t?

On page 9 @Bluntness where you stated:
France hit their peak quite quickly it seems.

I think our government are wrong. I don't think it's a conspiracy, I think it's just arrogance.

Dr Harries was asked at a recent government press briefing why we were not following WHO's advice and she said (paraphrasing) that WHO advice was there for all countries and lots of them didn't have well developed public health systems or lots of scientific experts like we do (I will find the clip).

And that's true, in some areas our public health system is outstanding and far exceeds anything we could get from WHO (thinking particularly of policies around smoking and vaping, and addictions generally).

We're not the experts here though. We need to be learning from countries that have already managed to get a handle on this clusterfuck as well as those who have dealt with SARS and MERS and ebola outbreaks etc.

This is happening worldwide.

Whatever measures we use here will affect the ability of other countries to control their own outbreaks because we are massively interconnected. We can see how this virus wrecks health systems, wrecks economies, wrecks the supply chain for food and other essential goods. Many countries do not have fully working health systems, economies or supply chains to start with.

It's very wrong for us to be pursuing policies to just flatten the curve and delay the peak without also seeking to reduce the area under the curve. It's bad enough for our own population but it will also make us a chronic low-level reservoir of infection that is an ongoing risk to the rest of the world.

How shit would it be if somewhere like Liberia or Guinea put in all the hard work to implement the community level containment measures they learnt from ebola, only to be totally floored by persistent imported cases from European countries?

We can't win at coronavirus. We're not in competition with other countries (or if we are that needs to stop fast). We can win against coronavirus but only if we learn everything we can from each other and pursue the most effective strategies to not only slow the spread but to stop it.

Sorry if this is a bit political for this thread.

Updated FT graphs here - twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1244721737842991105

I meant other than France, the poster said I’d done it twice,,,😂

I see, PuffinShop, thank you for clarifying.

So tracking France....

What was the quote and who was it from? I've added France to my spreadsheet and as yet have it compared same-day to UK. That doesn't match. We could be about 5-6 days behind? I wondered if the quote stated how many days behind they felt we tracked France's trajectory.