amp.theguardian.com/society/2020/mar/28/coronavirus-intensive-care-uk-patients-50-per-cent-survival-rate?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=twt_gu&utm_medium=&utm_source=Twitter&__twitter_impression=true
Covid-19 patients in UK intensive care have 50% survival rate
Findings of new report raise concerns about how effective new facilities will be
The mortality rate for patients put in intensive care after being infected with Covid-19 is running at close to 50%, a report has revealed.
Data from the Intensive Care National Audit and Research Centre (ICNARC) showed that of 165 patients treated in critical care in England, Wales and Northern Ireland since the end of February, 79 died, while 86 survived and were discharged. The figures were taken from an audit of 775 people who have been or are in critical care with the disease, across 285 intensive care units. The remaining 610 patients continue to receive intensive care.
I believe the percentage of deaths in Wuhan of those who were classed as critical was 67% if memory serves me correctly.
“The truth is that quite a lot of these individuals [in critical care] are going to die anyway and there is a fear that we are just ventilating them for the sake of it, for the sake of doing something for them, even though it won’t be effective. That’s a worry,” one doctor said.
The report also found that though the majority of those who have died from coronavirus across the UK were over 70, nine of the 79 who died in intensive care were aged between 16 and 49, as were 28 of the 86 who survived.
This also tallies reasonably closely with same Wuhan study. Those who survived critical care were much more likely to be younger.
I'd speculate that is also why we aren't seeing a huge spike in deaths in Italy compared with previously yearly data. They are choosing patients who are likely to die due to other reasons not to be ventilated when there are shortages.
The averaging effect of data means its masked more. And any spoke will be minimal but there will be excess deaths now. We might find there is a deficit in deaths later in the year as those expected to die have been dead sometime.
The audit suggested that men are at much higher risk from the virus – seven in ten of all ICU patients were male, while 30% of men in critical care were under 60, compared to just 15% of women. Excess weight also appears to be a significant risk factor; over 70% of patients were overweight, obese or clinically obese on the body mass index scale.
This matches what we know from Italy, plus if you have heart issues or diabetes or health problems generally you are more likely to be overweight.
As one of the most overweight nation in Europe you would expect the UK to have a higher rate of deaths as a result, even if our government restrictions are equally as good as elsewhere.
And as one of the countries with the worst obseity problems in the world, you would expect the effect in the US to be even worse.
I believe Birmingham is having particular problems: some of this is due to cultural issues and some may be to do with poorer underlying health in some communities. An MP tweeted yesterday that a large number of elderly Muslims and Sihks were continuing to pray in mosques and gurdwara despite government advise and this was now having a devastating affect. There are also higher levels of diabetes in British Pakistani communities which doesn't help. The city has become a particular covid-19 hotspot.
So I'm going to throw a little caution in the mix here about the success / failure and timing of restrictions with regards to the uk. We may not have the most elderly population compared to Italy for example, but we may have other vulnerabilities which might mean our death toll is high.