Worried About Coronavirus- thread 34

[RosieSunset]

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Thanks RTB. I have found the criticism of panic buyers quite mystifying. Obviously some people have done so, but those told to self isolate for 12 weeks with no infrastructure in place, and those seeing that if family members are sick sequentially, it could be 6 weeks before anyone is able to go shopping, and therefore trying to ensure some food, are surely being sensible?
We don’t have much food, because my DH does the shopping and did not want to look like a panic buyer. I had to point out that only having, for example, a weeks supply of specialist dog food for our elderly and allergic dog was actually neglectful.
I am trying to up my vegetable growing game, always been a dilettante, disorganised grower,easily tempted by pretty packets, but now I’m doing potatoes onions, greens, tomatoes and carrots. I hope to feed us and any of the vulnerable people I know who may need help.I have been considering a couple of raised beds in the lawn. DH laughed, but I will show him this and see if he still thinks it’s funny.

@juneybean yes I watched it a few days ago. Really hit home. Am just worried whether we are going to get to the stage of civil unrest :(

My MIL is in Carolina she is taking it very seriously.

However,She loves Trump and capitalism. Before This she sent pics of ' Socialist' Venezuela with ' useless' money on the floor. to me.We don't get on politically so we don't mention it now.

She had cancer and is retired but her Husband is diabetic and works in Trader Jos he can't shield as he would not have health insurance. ( mind boggles) she did say if it grows exponentially in NC he maybe able to take medical leave and keep the insurance.

She is staying in though it's just him. My sister in law in Az is a nurse in a home. They have shut the home to visitors.

On R4 asking people to consider where they’d like to die if old / vulnerable and to have the conversation with family now.

A bit sad for early morning but the Dr was pretty clear.

Juney I rewatched it the other day so close.

I did think at least we don’t have rubbish everywhere that’s when you know things are really bad. Their R0 was higher should be ok ;

@Jrobhatch29
Do you know the title of the report you posted a picture for?

@picklemewalnuts YYF is Ysbyty Ystrad Fawr. It’s a fairly new hospital they build in Ystrad Mynach, to replace the old Caerphilly Miners. It’s a lovely modern hospital, lovely facilities, but no A&E, only a minor injuries unit.

The staff at the Gwent are amazing, but they are always super busy, and the building is old fashioned and awkward. The walk from outpatients to pharmacy is epic! It’s like being in a maze, then you have to find your way out again. The multi levels make it very confusing!

@Jrobhatch29

At any rate - I think they use the figures from here. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.09.20033357v1

@Oakmaiden its the imperial college model

Used to work with Tim Lang (professor at City University outed in good security article). He is dedicated, thorough and brilliant. I’d take what he says very seriously.

*quoted not outed

That's it, Eve! I don't live their any more, so it's not a name I'm familiar with.
Yes, lovely modern building.

And the Gwent couldn't be harder to navigate if they were trying! Even the car park and the drive up the hill then round and down to the left...

I've memories of dropping off my disabled mother, finding a parking space, then needing to find her, Dad's ward, and then find the car and get back to her at the end. Bewildering!

A billion pounds in extra food in three weeks to a nation of nearly 70 million people, is a fiver a week a head.

At the same time that cafes, restaurants etc first empty then close, so less food being consumed there.

So really not a big increase. Some people will have spent more than that, a lot will have spent less, maybe even have decreased the amount of food they buy due to other financial pressures (e.g. job loss), or an inability to either go to the shops due to self isolation or find sufficient food when there.

It’s not panic buying, it’s that Just In Time cannot cope. And we’ve been directed to get angry with the moral failings of selfish greedy panic buyers rather than look at the failures of the system.

It’s difficult to know when and where a crisis will strike exactly. It’s not difficult to predict that there will be a crisis. Indeed, pandemic experts have been warning that something big has been overdue for a while. Food system is totally unable to cope with a few days of really bad weather, never mind a global pandemic.

Morning all My mum is worried about food supplies. If we didn't have our brexit boxes we'd both have been screwed. Mum isn't veggie and the local butchers delivers so that's something. She's having to learn to cook pasta

Named changed for this. My DH works in top level UK supermarket management (been working with the government etc) and he is quite dismissive of that Guardian article. Despite the tricky circumstances they have robust plans in place re food supply, they know their supply chains well, and the level of forward planning/modelling/creativity involved is quite fascinating. According to DH people will start to notice less choice in supermarkets (one type of sausages rather than 12 type thing) as focus shifts from offering a wide range of choice to ensuring enough essentials are available, but we aren't going to go hungry in a few weeks. Bit of an irresponsible scaremongery article from the Guardian.

And we’ve been directed to get angry with the moral failings of selfish greedy panic buyers rather than look at the failures of the system.

Yes, indeed.

Food sort of runs "optimally" - no extra storage, no food waste, no money wasted. You can sort of see why - for them it's not worth the extra, as it's like insurance against something that happens very rarely. But in a case like this it's a disaster.

Most businesses run like that too - all money re-invested and no savings. People run like that too (a lot of people can't help living paycheck to paycheck so I don't mean them) - people on salaries of 50k who are mortgaged up to the eyeballs with new BMWs and holidays to Maldives. People don't think disaster will happen to them so they don't prepare for it.

Thanks RTB. I have found the criticism of panic buyers quite mystifying.

Its a failure of the 'Just in time' system which is particularly acute in cities and especially London combined with changes in buying patterns and the fact we import so much food. Thats why shortages seem to have been a lot worse at the ends of the distribution network.

Thats a systematic failure rather than panic buying.

These problems are NOT short term for this reason. They are actually medium to long term.

Anyone who is aware of this has a better chance of being able to secure their food, as they are better equiped to change their own buying patterns and consumption of products.

It is going to mean a change in diet for quite a lot of people. And some people will actively struggle with that.

Ah yes all the "my kids won't eat that" or "we need these ingredients for this meal and they didn't have them, so I guess we'll have to starve"

According to DH people will start to notice less choice in supermarkets

We've already seen the effect if this. Substitution of some products for another causes a lot of issues for some: either because its for a more expensive product or you get a smaller portion for the same amount, or because you have people who can't cope with different brands for whatever reason (if you have a 5 year old in the house, 5 year old logic can not be argued with).

We also do very much have issues with labour for harvest, and labour for distribution. Thats why the supermarkets are hiring like crazy - precisely because just in time as a system has failed. If we have more widespread illness then that only adds to the problem.

'Flattening the curve' will help protect the NHS but it also has the effect of prolonging the problem without an exit strategy too. Its also not just about what is happening in the uk and how we manage things but also how other countries manage issues.

This means that these problems are here to stay for a good while and it also means that large scale importing faces real challenges.

I'm sorry but I'll use my own brains and understanding of geopolitics and supply chain issues than some bloke from Tesco (or whichever supermarket it is) with a vested interest to not acknowledge problems.

People with coeliac disease are already noticing that gluten free products are less available.

@RedToothBrush it's no skin off my nose. I'm not designating myself the role of 'supermarket defender' and have zero interest in arguing about it. I posted because I thought it might reassure people who are panicking but of course people are welcome to take it or leave it.

It is interesting. How food consumption has changed. My friend s mother peeled spuds very thickly, and was mystified that my friend chose to leave skin on, warned her that people would think she was cheap!
We have a very picky teen, and Dh indulges that, worried that they would sooner starve than try something they have decided they don’t like. We will see.
I don’t think the Guardian is known for irresponsible scare mongering. Obviously I would love it if they were wrong.

My children have been really good at eating whatever I put in front of them and understanding that we don't have as much choice as normal. Dd2 is usually quite restricted in what she'll eat but she's much better now. My mum is the most restricted as likes her food very traditional- meat and two veg type meals. She'll eat pasta and pizza at a restaurant but wouldn't think to make it at home. She was lamenting the lack of salad she had yesterday. I might order get some lettuce seeds and she can grow some on her window sill.

I don’t think the Guardian is known for irresponsible scare mongering.

It has its moments.

This isn't one.

There are long term questions about sustainability and global supply chains. They connect and cross lines about the environment, population growth and global warming more generally.

Covid-19 happens to expose some of this issues in an acute fashion.