Delay in today's numbers

[TheReelSlimShady]

Unless I'm being really stupid, it doesn't look like the numbers have been updated for today, it still says 24th March

www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public

Not seen any reasons as to why they are delayed?

And you'd probably not believe me, because it's obvious nonsense.

Oh I don’t know - there are a fair few posters on here who probably would!

Yes deft but Italy were rising at hundreds of deaths a day at this point.

Hopefully a few hours difference in reporting isn’t going to unveil anything like those numbers

Exactly. Speaking of which, when are we due to get today’s figure?

We are nowhere near the peak, when Italy’s cases were “rising by hundreds a day”.

defthand we are about 3 weeks away from peak aren't we?

Also, Italy’s numbers are showing no signs of slowing despite their longer and more stringent lock down

Italy's numbers are looking better in Lombardy, and getting worse around Naples. But there is hope in their numbers, if you look at them in context.

I did say probably, @Dongdingdong

Kate McCann - 'For those asking/concerned about PHE figures on covid-19 deaths and why the number yesterday was low/why the way it is reported has changed, here is some more information:
NHS has been providing figures to PHE on covid deaths by 9am every day and PHE then publishing stats at 2pm. That was the intention. But as deaths rise it has become difficult to collate and verify the numbers in time. That has led to figures being published after the 2pm deadline. To get on top of this, PHE and NHS have decided to change the time these numbers are reported to allow more time to check they're all correct. Importantly, the way the deaths are collated has not changed, only the time. [I am still waiting to hear what the new cut off time is, and the new publishing time]. As a result, yesterday's death stats looked much lower than expected but unfortunately that was a crossover day when the times were being altered. So today the stats are likely to look far higher. To give a more accurate picture (although I appreciate this is not ideal, stats experts) the suggestion is we add up the figures from yesterday and today and then divide by two to better understand what is happening. There is also likely to be a note published later from officials to explain this formally, so that people can rest assured there is nothing funny going on with the numbers here.'

No one knows what was right or wrong expect with the benefit of hindsight
We need to focus on what we can do moving forwards and less of the coulda, woulda, shoulda

THIS ^

And if we want to protect Lives, rather than MONEY, we have to err on the side of caution.

It would seem Italy’s peak was round about the twenty or twenty first of March,. It’s slowly descending if you look at the graphs.

Imperial are advising the government the peak is about two to three weeks away now, muck quicker than expected. There seems to be global alignment on that. Even the who is now talking about what happens when restrictions are lifted at their conferences and less about lock it down as they were a few days ago.

we are about 3 weeks away from peak aren't we?

@SeperatedSwans yes - see today’s news from Imperial:

www.imperial.ac.uk/news/196477/j-ideas-neil-ferguson-tells-mps-lockdown/

There’s been a spike in cases in Lombardy today, unfortunately. 2500+ cases and 387 deaths. So the trend is difficult to read. I expected their lockdown to have had more impact than this.

To be fair so would I have expected a bigger impact in Italy. I wonder just how much the Italians really are complying.

The lack of any really down ward trend would indicate there is something else going on in there in terms of compliance.

I thought the rate of increase in new cases was slowing in Italy ?

I think taking the two days numbers and dividing by two to get an average is the best idea.

Short of mass delivering food to everyone not sure what else italy can do to slow it down

To be fair so would I have expected a bigger impact in Italy. I wonder just how much the Italians really are complying.

The lack of any really down ward trend would indicate there is something else going on in there in terms of compliance.

Could there be more people dying who would previously have survived because of a lack of beds and hospital space? If they are completely overrun with patients now then I assume that a good number of people might have survived if there was unlimited ICU care are dying?

Would that cancel out a bit of the downturn that compliance would normally show?

*It would seem Italy’s peak was round about the twenty or twenty first of March,. It’s slowly descending if you look at the graphs.

@Bluntness100*

I'm a bit of a graph nerd, which sites do you use for graph data on this please?

I do think there is evidence of it slowing across several European countries, although I can not see evidence from Italy, France or full UK figures yet. Deaths have fallen in Spain, Germany, Belgium. The problem is it is increasing in others. It is early to see impact of the stricter measures yet here.

According to our neighbour who is a critical care Dr in a big hospital in Newcastle, they are working on the basis that the peak will be in 2-4weeks and then it will drop until autumn/winter. She says in many areas of the country the NHS is coping extremely well at the moment because numbers are relatively low in many areas but London is struggling and some big cities are starting to see really significant increases.

If it is raging in other countries after it slows in some, it raises questions about travel restrictions and border closures remaining in place to stop it spreading. I don't know if we would have to maintain all restrictions to stop it returning. China and Hong Kong have more cases again today.

Does anyone know when the numbers will be released?

Just seen this on guardian news page

Lyra

That's what I was thinking. People with other illness dying now as well.

BBC giving death rate of 475 just now. Yesterday it was 765.

465*

It’s 477 with Scotland Northern Ireland and Wales, let’s not play this game again tonight where everyone keeps forgetting about England.

Please.

Hope this link works

twitter.com/dhscgovuk/status/1243237209039396872?s=21

There is an explanation on the change in reporting. But from 5pm 24th March to 5pm 25th March there were +115 deaths.

Yesterday's figures covered 9am 24th March to 5pm same day.