Delay in today's numbers

[TheReelSlimShady]

Unless I'm being really stupid, it doesn't look like the numbers have been updated for today, it still says 24th March

www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public

Not seen any reasons as to why they are delayed?

I agree action was taken before lockdown here.

That's why people were calling for lockdown. To stop those who weren't also following the advice having to take social distancing earlier.

Certainly the week leading up to the schools shutting and even as early as the previous weeks the numbers of pupils was dropping.

They still predict a peak come may and June time. This hasn't changed afaik.
But numbers will be lower heading towards that peak if people are sensible and behave appropriately.

I do agree with all the above posters though that wanting these figures and being obsessed with why they aren't out isn't helpful. Right now they need to be focussing on other priorities and the information will be out there. And also conspiracy theories are not helpful.

Anyone in nhs and frontline able to say if we've been using some of the drugs suggestive of being of help and if this may be what's making our figures have a flatter curve.

And the fucking daily mail headline is ‘is it working, death rate halves’. We’ve only been in lockdown a few days ! What idiots. Totally irresponsible reporting. I can guarantee that lots of people will read that and think it’s all a fuss about nothing.

Bloody hell. I thought I was being overly cynical in saying last night that people might think like that because they don't understand that new measures take about two weeks to impact the figures. It didn't occur to me that a national newspaper would be promoting it.

As for the interpretation of 'sceptical about the accuracy of the figures' as 'disappointed that more people didn't die' I really have no words. There's a difference between disagreeing with an idea and assuming bad faith on the part of those holding it.

No one actually knows, all our top scientists globally are applying every ounce of knowledge they have to this. At this stage it’s likely, or possible (if people are going to pick over words), that restrictions will be eased slightly after this three to four week period, but the twelve weeks Boris put forward is looking more likely by the day, as the peak would be much earlier, as in the next few days. Not into June time.

Many more positive reports are coming out now from the scientific community, are we through it yet, absolutely not, will it be over, as in completely done by Easter, clearly not, will the peak be over before Easter and much earlier than expected, yes it’s highly possible, sage think so, many global authorities think so.

Thank you @Bluntness100 for the uplifting posts. It's a horrendous time of course, but I too think there are positive signs that things won't be nearly as bad as many were predicting.

@Bluntness100 I also got mocked on here when I said before I was told, that I did not know if I would be in the shielded group.
The issue I think is that the government and others assume the shielded group are very ill and probably not working. They don't realise it includes many people who they would simply not realise they had any health issues, who work and have families. We are not all nearly at deaths door.

The daily fail has been massively scaremongering for weeks now. It’s interesting some posters nod along sagely with all that, even come on here and post even worse predictions, but the first time the fail posts something positive, and a valid question at that, they kick off and call them irresponsible.

What idiots. Totally irresponsible reporting. I can guarantee that lots of people will read that and think it’s all a fuss about nothing

Why not email them and tell them that they should not be asking questions like is it working, and to please keep it as pessimistic as possible until such irrefutable proof is given to the contrary?

I’m sure they would agree.

Schools were shutting because teachers were not going in. Heads were told by government as long as they had the staff they had to keep the schools open.

"They still predict a peak come may and June time. This hasn't changed afaik."

Guardian reports that Prof Neil Ferguson (one of the Imperial people) said this morning on radio "Perhaps in about three weeks we hope these current measures will start flattening that curve and start bringing numbers down."

I didn't listen to the interview, so don't know the full context - but that suggests it may be earlier than May/June.

The daily fail has been massively scaremongering for weeks now. It’s interesting some posters nod along sagely with all that, even come on here and post even worse predictions, but the first time the fail posts something positive, and a valid question at that, they kick off and call them irresponsible.

Agree. But some of the more panicked posters have got it into their heads that this will go on for years, will end in hundreds of thousands of deaths in the UK and will even result in World War Three (I've specifically seen that posted on other threads).

There will be little you can do to change their minds.

Basically lots saw the government was bloody useless so took their own actions to safeguard their families.

Of course extreme stuff about collapse of society or millions of deaths wont happen. Life will restart and go on as normal. But to claim we will be over the worst in 2-3 weeks time is equally foolish.

Agree, whatever ‘actions’ and I see you’ve stopped using the word ‘measures’ that were taken by people a month ago did not come from a government directive.

I’d love the death rate to be falling. But if the case rate is going up then I’m sorry basic science says the death rate will and they were just inaccurate figures yesterday or maybe some hospitals didn’t get them in in time. I hope I’m wrong. I don’t actually think this will go on for years as some claim but I don’t think we are at the peak yet therefore it is irresponsible for a paper to say they measures are working’. What in 3 days, wow!!

Yes imperial college presented to some select government technical committee yesterday and they have revised their predictions to say the peak will be over by Easter if we keep this up.

They have said they do not wish stringent lock downs for an extended period Ie up to a year as they feel it will lead to a second peak and a resurgence, it is better for us to have a lower level of restriction for an extended period. Again not because of herd immunity.

The presentation and interview he gave to the panel is available on line to view.

The key though is clearly we need to keep this up till after Easter. They feel with the added nhs capacity, if we keep these measures up for the three weeks. Overall nhs capacity will not be breached either. This is their new model.

However it should be noted, like their last model, this is a prediction. Not a given and will be evolved.

It should also be noted this presentation on the new model was done before last nights numbers were published and they feel the next two weeks will be very, very difficult indeed, with cases and deaths, before it starts to tail down.

Okay so not being positive has replaced scaremongering then?
I predict in a weeks time that you will be telling us that nobody said the peak could over by easter.

Yes this is one of those rare cases where many private sector employers were more responsible than the public sector or the government.

I suspected that the drop in figures may have something to do with the way we are reporting them. On another thread on here they are saying the families consent is now needed. That would explain the delay in figures and the slow increase. Not the fact that all those strict measures we had in place five weeks ago 🙄 are working .

I really don’t understand what people who insist on moaning about things that have happened and cannot be changed hope to achieve

Likewise, cases could increase and deaths not necessarily so if the theory that many people get little or no symptoms, so the death rate slowing whilst cases are increasing may be possible

This is all unknown territory - surely a little positive thinking is more beneficial for everyone than this constant doom mongering

I’m not saying we should all carry on as before, just be a bit more balanced.

alloutoffucks seems determined to moan about the governments actions / lack of actions because he / she can’t currently moan about a rapidly increasing death rate

People need to calm down a bit

Yes imperial college presented to some select government technical committee yesterday and they have revised their predictions to say the peak will be over by Easter if we keep this up.

Excellent news!

Chris Smyth - 'Death figures update: last night only 28 new fatalities recorded.
Alas this is not good news, it is because there are now so many deaths NHS using a 7.30am cut off instead of 1pm.
So govt looking at changing how they are reported 1/2'

Chris Smyth - 'We may not get any death figures today, as they are looking at moving to publishing first thing in the morning.

Aim is to give more time to collate NHS data and inform families before ages and locations made public 2/2'

Alas this is not good news, it is because there are now so many deaths NHS using a 7.30am cut off instead of 1pm.

If they've changed the time frame (e.g. recording deaths from 7.30am-7.30am instead of 1pm-1pm) that will only have an impact on one day's worth of figures? Any deaths after 7.30am will simply be counted in the next day's figures. Which means today could see a surge.

Little acorns thanks for that. It's the leak we really need to watch because that's what's controlling everything else.
It would be nice to think they may relax things such as socialising outside even if shops etc remain shut.

@alloutoffucks why are you completely ignoring all the evidence, the government did put things in place.

No on has said they were great. Or that they are impacting figures but they were there.

Two weeks ago people were beginning to self isolate and companies were sending staff to wfh. These were decisions made by individuals and nothing to do with government at all. Government were not even suggesting wfh..

People werent self isolating because they fancied it. As pp said above social distancing and isolation for symptoms was in place 2 weeks ago.

You seem to think there was nothing in place because Cheltenham happened.

It appears the government and the organisers foolishly thought people wouldnt go of they were ill. But they did.

It was a bad decision to go ahead.other things had started to be cancelled

That doesnt mean things were not in place.

I don't know, a lot of people I know have used the drop in numbers as an incentive to stay in 'because it's working'. Whatever the headlines people will interpret it differently. No doubt this is just a blip and unfortunately numbers will be back on the up today, but saying it is working will likely work for a lot of people- whether that's more than who will think ah screw it they're going down remains to be seen. Positive reinforcement of behaviour and seeing actual results seems to work for a lot though.

Imperial college has been very clear, they have stated the next two weeks will be very difficult in their view and the peak not till Easter. As such whatever last night was in the numbers, I don’t think any expert is predicting we have reached the peak yesterday. That’s a misreading of the situation. The predictions are sadly in continues to escalate over the next two to three weeks then declines.

The point is they are no longer saying the peak is june.