Delay in today's numbers

[TheReelSlimShady]

Unless I'm being really stupid, it doesn't look like the numbers have been updated for today, it still says 24th March

www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public

Not seen any reasons as to why they are delayed?

Good grief. Can I offer anyone a tin foil hat?

Mintypylon the indications are that we are not going to have as high numbers as Italy.
Same for Ireland, and Germany seem to be flattening their curve as well.

@Carrotcakeforbreakfast thanks. In what way is the cough very specific?

Do we test for CV19 in community deaths or only those admitted to hospital?
I believe we don't, so can these figures be trusted?

Well if it’s a blip it’s a blip the USA also has today their deaths have also nearly halved, and curiously both the USA and uk were trialling the same anti viral treatment.

Do we test for CV19 in community deaths or only those admitted to hospital?

Yes, we test post mortem.

Have I missed the figures being updated or are we all still discussing the press ones?

I think a plausible explanation for the sharp reduction in today’s England figures (other UK countries were as expected) given we would expect to be on a broadly upward trajectory, is that various hospitals or trusts haven’t “declared” their figures as they’re too busy managing the situation. This would explain why the figures have come so late coming (ie they could wait no longer) and they reported deaths that had been “confirmed” at that point.

I’m not saying this because I have some mawkish sick desire for the figures to be higher, but such a drop doesn’t match trends at all and fits with the timing and lack of update on the NHS England page (which is still showing figures as at 9am on 24 March).

I hope I’m wrong, but my instincts tell me I’m not.

Press and worldometer, I think it’s also on the nhs website.

UK implemented one very useful measure before the lockdown - people with fevers and new coughs were requested to self-isolate. This happened on March 12.

And also the advice for anyone who lives with someone with symptoms to self isolate as well. I think this was absolutely key and has been downplayed a bit actually as something that has perhaps really prevented spread.

I also agree it’s been downplayed, we were seeing pictures of deserted china town and other London streets over two weeks ago. I was supposed to be staying in central London, and in the week lead up the price kept dropping, when I cancelled they told me everyone was cancelling it had had a huge impact on them and that was over two weeks ago when I cancelled.

I don’t think two weeks ago any measures were in place? My DH happily flew off to Austria and in-laws were in Spain. So whilst I hope it’s a flattening of the curve/ a downward trend, if it is it isn’t due to any measures we took two weeks ago...

@Somerville Still discussing the press

Well if it’s a blip it’s a blip the USA also has today their deaths have also nearly halved, and curiously both the USA and uk were trialling the same anti viral treatment.

USA’s figures aren’t all in yet, with many states sadly showing large proportional rises. NY looks like only a partial count (unless there’s been a miracle in the state) and nothing from Washington state.

People are infectious for up to 2 weeks before showing any symptoms. I would be surprised if it made a massive difference.

I work in this field.
The numbers are coming from hospitals now as PHE is not the only ones testing them anymore.
Therefore it’s taking longer for the results to update.

We also seem to follow this pattern; a flat few days where there isn’t much increase and then a big increase. I wonder if hospitals are too busy to report and they get filled over to the next day which then shows a huge spike. We’ve had this before where the day to day increase hasn’t been that much then a spike.

Obviously we’d all love this to be a downward trend but we want to make sure figures are accurate.

Honest question - why are people seeking out or waiting for these figures

I think sometimes it can help manage some aspects of people's anxiety. I don't watch the figures, although I am trying to understand how the projections are panning out, so the figures are an intrinsic part of that I guess. The number of new cases today has shocked me.

The delay for results is approximately two/three days. And hospital laboratories started testing on Monday.

I am sure a nurse on another thread said they had ceased testing those who had died, I presumed it meant testing would be carried out during an autopsy, will they even automatically perform an autopsy using the normal rules?

The previous delay for results had reached over a week days with only PHE testing

I work in this field.
The numbers are coming from hospitals now as PHE is not the only ones testing them anymore.
Therefore it’s taking longer for the results to update.

This makes sense. Thanks for the info.

I don’t think two weeks ago any measures were in place? My DH happily flew off to Austria and in-laws were in Spain. So whilst I hope it’s a flattening of the curve/ a downward trend, if it is it isn’t due to any measures we took two weeks ago...
Italy was locked down over 2 weeks ago.

My kids returned from there and came out of isolation last sunday.

Anyone with symptoms was meant to isolate

Travel abroad was advised against, to countries that had it.

I flew to Edinburgh 3 weeks ago, the day flybe closed. There were rules in place then

Theres been measures in place for much longer than 2 weeks.

Flybe went bankrupt. That was not a corona measure.

My sympathy to everyone who has lost a loved one.

www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=%2fpeoplepopulationandcommunity%2fbirthsdeathsandmarriages%2fdeaths%2fdatasets%2fweeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales%2f2020/publishedweek112020.xls