Delay in today's numbers

[TheReelSlimShady]

Unless I'm being really stupid, it doesn't look like the numbers have been updated for today, it still says 24th March

www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public

Not seen any reasons as to why they are delayed?

I would be amazed if this is anything but a random dip, sadly. We likely have a rise locked in for the next 2-3 weeks.

Honest question - why are people seeking out or waiting for these figures?

Given that 20,000 deaths is a best case scenario for the UK, are you all going to sit and watch them tick over to 20,000? What happens after that? Why are you so interested given the course of this pandemic is out of your hands?

I don't ask aggressively, just out of genuine interest.

guess what I am trying to say is that, hopefully, today's numbers reflect some earlier measures taken 2 weeks ago

Yes measures were definitely in place two weeks ago, which could have reduced the viral load on people, reducing how ill they got, and prompting them to take swift action, but more than that, I really hope it’s how they are treating them.

However it’s too early to read anything into it.

Given that 20,000 deaths is a best case scenario for the UK

That number is not a given, it’s not assured, it changes all the time.

So yes, I will watch the numbers and see how this evolves.

I agree Keys - I can't see their source for the England numbers, if it's not coming from Dept of Health & Social Care, I 'm not convinced.

@otsnotthatcomplicated oh gosh this is going to sound horrible, she's a lovely girl, but sometimes needs the odd thing explained to her at least twice. This is the same girl that didn't realise cows were female and bulls were male. She thought they were like different breeds of cow, like you get different breeds of dogs. 😳

She's also shattered and working flat out, so maybe it's that also.

Red - I’m the same - I’m not going to believe anything until it’s been confirmed by a credible source.

Winter yes I am really hoping we are going to see the effects of that measure soon. The day that was announced I got a temp next day (already had cold symptoms) so have been home since then apart from one walk to the local shops for a top up shop, and I know of many people who also self isolated since then, before we all got told to stay home on Monday. Even if most of us didn't have coronavirus, we were still away from society and hopefully slowing the spread. Many people criticised the UK response but I'm really hoping we see the effects of this soon and start to distance ourselves from Italy's numbers. I've always had my faith in the CMO/CSO.

Having said that i am still a bit sceptical of the news reported number today until I see it on an official gov or PHE site. Although apart from yesterday, we had a few days running of 40-50 deaths a day so maybe yesterday was the anomaly rather than today.

The figures were released by PHE directly a while ago:

9529 cases (1452 new)
7973 England
719 Scotland
628 Wales
209 Northern Ireland

New cases:
East of England 51
London 375
Midlands 222
North East & Yorkshire 156
North West 110
South East 125
South West 52

Oh, wow, I went to make some phone calls to family members and wasn't expecting this thread to blow up quite as it has!

So apologies, I haven't read through all the replies, but if those numbers being referenced are accurate then that's good, but also it's only one day out of many so there is always going to be a bit of variation.

Still no update on the official channel though, which does seem a little strange.

Deary me some of the earlier comments on this thread!

Honest question - why are people seeking out or waiting for these figures?
Honest answer - I’m inputting data to various models (released by different academics) to work out the accurate parameters. With so little testing in the UK the death figures are the most helpful.

Italy went into same lockdown as us (shops etc) on 9th March but as everyone knows over weekend started spiking to 600 plus deaths a day. In 16 days I very frightened that we will have the same?
People saying it wont happen as we now on lockdown (finally) but it takes 9 days for the critical cases that lead to death from infection.
Obviously why big hospital being built, but just so sad that we didnt lock down earlier. If we had also locked down on 9th March ( rather than holding Cheltenham races etc! We would have saved thousands of lives.
Government going to have a lot of deaths on their hands that were preventable.

I follow and want to believe in the numbers so I can have faith that when they drop it’s safe to go about my business. The numbers are currently all over the place, do not align with the trends in other countries (good or bad) and I am fast losing faith.

The current dashboard doesn’t even have the maths correct. There were 8077 confirmed cases yesterday (it’s still reported on the gov site, and I have a screenshot). But the dashboard claims there are 1542 new cases for a new total of 9529 confirmed cases today.

I hope the latest figures for spain are a mistake. Worldometer occasionally posts really high figures, then changes (double counting perhaps when figures are released at a regional level).

@Itwasntme1 I'm sure Spains figures were over 700 deaths earlier on the news-it's not even that high on Worldometers. I'm not sure what the real figures are I think Spain updates throughout the day? Absolutely shocking if it's over 700 which I'm sure I heard earlier Sad:

I am seeing this as positive, we certainly seem to be diverting from Italy they were at nearly double this 2weeks ago.

Fingers crossed all the hygiene and isolating the sick and elderly is being shown to have an effect. Two weeks ago today is when we stopped my mum seeing my kids.

I follow the numbers to have some idea of risk, some idea of projection of how long all this might last, and to have a bit more of an idea of what to expect.
There isn't much testing in the UK compared to other countries, and for some time now they've only been testing people who needed to go into intensive care. So from the few figures given, it's possible to compare them to other places, and predict what might happen.

It's not ghoulish. It's extremely upsetting to read. But I'd rather have some kind of an idea of what might be going on here and in the world, whether the virus is spreading fast or fading out. And once it does start to fade out, having proper, statistically-based hope again. That's why I'd like the stats to be right.
And if you've been following the patterns, then this is a blip, a result of medical professionals curing it, a result of people beginning to be more careful 2 years ago, or it's false information. And it's always better to be (reasonably) questioning of situations than to accept them at face value.

We last saw my mum on 16 march. I was in central london that day too.

but it takes 9 days for the critical cases that lead to death from infection.

And 5 days on average from being infected to being symptomatic, so a 14 day lag. Those thinking that this dip is a start of a downwards trend resulting from social distancing of people (which was only a small proportion of people - the vast majority worked and socialised as normal) two weeks ago are sadly misguided.

I’m not saying that because I want the numbers to go up. I don’t! I’m saying it as the hypothesis doesn’t stand up to scrutiny and is wildly at odds with the scientific projections.

alloutoffucks

Clinically or on X-ray?

Clinically they've all been very sweaty and short of breath and the cough is very specific.
In saying that I see resus ones not walking ones. Which I keep reminding myself when I have a panic attack about it all

Ans imaging wise
It looks a lot like pneumonia but is bilateral with peripheral opacities.
Very cloudy
But the early ones could be mistaken for just a chest infection.

I am seeing this as positive, we certainly seem to be diverting from Italy they were at nearly double this 2weeks ago.

Yes, based on info to date, we seem to be flattening out a bit compared to Italy... too soon to be confident about this though.

@ChicChicChicChiclana 5,700 is the best case scenario, c.50,000 is the median and 550,000 is the worst case.

The modelling behind this is complex. Act too quickly and you can actually increase the total number of deaths.

There isn't much testing in the UK compared to other countries, and for some time now they've only been testing people who needed to go into intensive care. So from the few figures given, it's possible to compare them to other places, and predict what might happen

This is not true, or at least not where I work. ALL patients with respiratory symptoms or fever are tested. Most are sent home (some of those are tested, some not) and some are admitted (all tested, even if they don't need ITU- we don't have the side room capacity to keep them in there unless we need to so we need to know if they have it or not)