Coronavirus may have infected half of UK population — Oxford study

[Lycidas]

‘New epidemiological model shows vast majority of people suffer little or no illness.’

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“The research presents a very different view of the epidemic to the modelling at Imperial College London, which has strongly influenced government policy. “I am surprised that there has been such unqualified acceptance of the Imperial model,” said Prof Gupta.

However, she was reluctant to criticise the government for shutting down the country to suppress viral spread, because the accuracy of the Oxford model has not yet been confirmed and, even if it is correct, social distancing will reduce the number of people becoming seriously ill and relieve severe pressure on the NHS during the peak of the epidemic.”

A glimmer of hope. They’re gonna start with the antibody testing very soon.

Thanks. Good to see some balance and more hopeful threads on here today

Thank you for this it’s nice to see something positive :)

I'm actually genuinely convinced half of us have already had it. Me and most of my office had suspicious colds all through March, everyone was fine in the end. Guess when they roll out the antibody tests we can find out!

This wouldn’t surprise me. As more first hand reports are coming out the more I am starting to think we’ve already had it.

Well it's good to know then that Mumsnet has contributed to the biggest ever panic in the world by some stretch. I do hope they got their Ocado slots in the end.

@vera99 does Mumsnet inform policy in Italy, Spain, Germany Greece then? Cool.

Just posted a duplicate thread about this - an interesting theory, isn't it?

So why are people dying now? Did we just not notice?

Wow, @Mumsnet just locked down India and it's 1.3 billion people, postponed this year's Olympics in Japan, and made Sam Smith cry

The power

Here' s some counter-arguments - which basically says - yes it is bad virus but nor armageddon and the 'panic' has made it much worse in terms of health outcomes.

swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/

From the Swiss report.

March 21, 2020 (II)
The Japan Times asks: Japan was expecting a coronavirus explosion. Where is it? Despite being one of the first countries getting positive test results and having imposed no lockdown, Japan is one of the least-affected nations. Quote: „Even if Japan may not be counting all those infected, hospitals aren’t being stretched thin and there has been no spike in pneumonia cases.“
Italian researchers argue that the extreme smog in Northern Italy, the worst in Europe, may be playing a causative role in the current pneumonia outbreak there, as in Wuhan before.
In a new interview, Professor Sucharit Bhakdi, a world renowned expert in medical microbiology, says blaming the new coronavirus alone for deaths is „wrong“ and „dangerously misleading“, as there are other more important factors at play, notably pre-existing health conditions and poor air quality in Chinese and Northern Italian cities. Professor Bhakdi describes the currently discussed or imposed measures as „grotesque“, „useless“, „self-destructive“ and a „collective suicide“ that will shorten the lifespan of the elderly and should not be accepted by society.

Here' s some counter-arguments - which basically says - yes it is bad virus but nor armageddon and the 'panic' has made it much worse in terms of health outcomes.

A global depression is going to sharply contract foreign aid/charity to LDCs.

I do believe we'll look back at this chapter with a sense of disbelief at the lack of proportionality.

*So why are people dying now? Did we just not notice?
*
I would like to know the answer to this too please, if anyone knows.

ages!

Ignore the ages! On the end of my last post.

And there's more - in the middle of a panic all reason is lost.

March 23, 2020 (II)
Former Israeli Health Minister, Professor Yoram Lass, says that the new coronavirus is „less dangerous than the flu“ and lockdown measures „will kill more people than the virus“. He adds that „the numbers do not match the panic“ and „psychology is prevailing over science“. He also notes that „Italy is known for its enormous morbidity in respiratory problems, more than three times any other European country.“
Pietro Vernazza, a Swiss infectious disease specialist, argues that many of the imposed measures are not based on science and should be reversed. According to Vernazza, mass testing makes no sense because 90% of the population will see no symptoms, and lockdowns and closing schools are even „counterproductive“. He recommends protecting only risk groups while keeping the economy and society at large undisturbed.
The President of the World Doctors Federation, Frank Ulrich Montgomery, argues that lockdown measures as in Italy are „unreasonable“ and „counterproductive“ and should be reversed.
Switzerland: Despite media panic, excess mortality still at or near zero: the latest testpositive „victims“ were a 96yo in palliative care and a 97yo with pre-existing conditions.
The latest statistical report of the Italian National Health Institute is now available in English.

Also are there any figures detailing what the regular death rate is at this time of year vs what it is now? Surely that would be a good indicator. Also why are they building new hospitals?

We all die in the end, people die every day, all deaths that are positive for the virus are regarded as coronavirus death even though they would have died anyway of other causes. I believe this will be over rather more quickly than anyone currently thinks and we will look back at this with a sense of belief.

Also are there any figures detailing what the regular death rate is at this time of year vs what it is now?

The problem with this is that the current covid19 death rate would represent far less than one standard deviation of the death rate so it's completely meaningless.

Which is another reason that we should maintain proportion.

Interesting, but SIR/SEIR models are VERY simplistic. The Imperial model is more complex and takes into better account some of the nuances. So I'm afraid I'm somewhat sceptical.

However there is one good point - the need to test. Test, test, test. We need to know the spread in the general population and focus resources.

I do think countries are now sort of doing competitive lockdown-ing to look impressive and appease the baying mobs that read DM every day, without even knowing how many asymptomatic cases there are.

The economic suicide we're committing could have a worse fallout and cause more deaths/horrible quality of life than the actual virus.

I am taking the number of deaths and multiplying by 1000 to calculate the number of people who have it. That means that around 6-7m people in Italy have had it already. To gain group immunity it would mean 40m people getting it. That is another 5 months based on the spread so far. Rough calculations but am sure it will be near this. And around 40,000 deaths.

The reason for lockdown is to stop the health systems getting overwhelmed and death % being higher

Obviously I don't know for sure or anything, but just thinking people probably have been dying for a while, but if the majority have underlying health issues, it may have been attributed to that? Or seasonal flu which can cause pnumonia? Not sure.

I do think countries are now sort of doing competitive lockdown-ing to look impressive and appease the baying mobs that read DM every day, without even knowing how many asymptomatic cases there are.

Yes. Unfortunately the only who has come anything close to mentioning proportionality is Trump, who I have come to agree with in the past 24 hours (it's an uncomfortable arrangement).

Have a look at this and then imagine we had a blow by blow account of each death all linked by a common theme that plays into our deepest fears about our mortality. I remember in the 80s the flesh-eating bacteria scare that ran for a few weeks and turned out there were 75 cases a year in the end. Global social media, a bad but not crazy virus and fear of the unknown and it has literally crippled the world.

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/excesswintermortalityinenglandandwales/2018to2019provisionaland2017to2018final

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/excesswintermortalityinenglandandwales/2018to2019provisionaland2017to2018final