Coronavirus may have infected half of UK population — Oxford study

[Lycidas]

‘New epidemiological model shows vast majority of people suffer little or no illness.’

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“The research presents a very different view of the epidemic to the modelling at Imperial College London, which has strongly influenced government policy. “I am surprised that there has been such unqualified acceptance of the Imperial model,” said Prof Gupta.

However, she was reluctant to criticise the government for shutting down the country to suppress viral spread, because the accuracy of the Oxford model has not yet been confirmed and, even if it is correct, social distancing will reduce the number of people becoming seriously ill and relieve severe pressure on the NHS during the peak of the epidemic.”

A glimmer of hope. They’re gonna start with the antibody testing very soon.

twitter.com/i/status/1241393485241974786

The above gives the MOST clear explanation in very plain language as to the danger of an established care system dealing with an 'extra'

i think it is fine to question, but as i said above, there is a lack of joined up thinking in gupta's study and the most important thing right now seems to be people complying with govmt instructions to keep clear of each other by 2 metres and if the advice is questioned in terms of credibility and people ignore the advice (which has also bee tehe advice of all frontline doctors around the world...) then the virus will not have any chance of being suppressed and so the isolation period will go on for longer... with worse results for the economy.

I think this is an irresponsible post.

Sorry, but I actually disagree. This is not some random person up the road posting their nonsensical rantings - this is an Oxford professor, in collaboration with their team, who have provided a study and published their findings.

Precisely so others can read the study and critique, the way that any academic study would be (by peer review).

The widely cited Imperial model isn't necessarily completely correct either - we don't have the empirical evidence currently as we are still relatively speaking in early stages.

But we shouldn't be silencing multiple different viewpoints.

Liberon, but even at one of the press conferences the chief scientific officer stated there was an over lap. The issue is they don’t know the level of that overlap. He specifically stated it.

Example

Italy: in the city of Bergamo, there were 108 more deaths in the first 15 days of March this year compared to 2019
(164 deaths in 2020 vs. 56 deaths in 2019) according to the mayor of the city Giorgio Gori.

Liberon, on that I agree, it’s important we all comply.

However discussing it is also important. People need to try to understand what’s happening from the data we are being provided.

swprs.org/corona-media-propaganda/

Big choc, sure, in one month in one city it was up, but Italy in total year on year it is not. There is no spike.

Italy: in the city of Bergamo, there were 108 more deaths in the first 15 days of March this year compared to 2019
(164 deaths in 2020 vs. 56 deaths in 2019) according to the mayor of t the city Giorgio Gori.

------

I don't think anyone would dispute that it might accelerate death, but you'd need to smooth the death rates out over a year or two to get an understanding of the number of years lost. Also that's a very small sample size.

I don't understand why we have never had lockdowns before in modern times. We've had pandemics before that reached Europe and caused a million deaths-Asian flu, Hong Kong flu etc. but we didn't have mass lockdowns? I'm not saying I think this lockdown is wrong but just wondering why countries never did it before? Is it because they think this is going to be the worst one since 1918? Is is because we have a bigger population now so more stress on healthcare? Or because we can get a significant number of people to work from home thanks to technology? Or just because countries never thought to lockdown/cared enough about their citizens to do it before?

Are they going to do the same thing in another 20 yrs (or less) the next time a virus threatens to become a pandemic? Sorry about all the questions they are probably silly I'm just curious why we've never seen the likes of this before despite other pandemics.

I’m in the shielded, most vulnerable group due to a liver transplant and I can assure you that I’m no where near death’s door.

I’m fit and healthy and am not about to die, unless of course fucking wankers spread shitty crap like this virus around.

People have such narrow views of life and cannot imagine that people with pre- existing conditions are usually fit and healthy. Well I am and will continue to be as long as you lucky people stop being twats.

I think the UK should take extra measures this week and next, but the indefinite nature of the lockdown is nuts and with no exaggeration is precisely the stuff that coups are made of. A pre-defined exit strategy is urgently needed.

It is a balancing act and one which U.K. is trying to strike. Some have said far too late people dying. Other countries like NZ have locked down at far far fewer cases. Timing is an issue, and length of it, they have said that here.

I do wonder if diverting from tests to antibody test is actually a very good idea. Contact tracing has proved very difficult in western countries, it explodes quickly. But antibody could help get back to normal.

Loads of detractors re number of tests though. Just a quick post as going to watch a movie (Contagion ;).

@Bluntness100 If this was on a scientific chat forum it is fine to debate the finer points of this study. It is not. It is a general chat forum full of people who do not want to follow government advice and are happy to find a reason why.
Italy has seen a major spike in both mortality and cases in hospitals. Do you really think what you see now is what happens every year when flu circulates? If those people would have died anyway then flu and other seasonal viruses would have killed them.

Of course there are people near death who are killed by covoid 19 who would as easily have been killed by flu or even a cold. There is always an overlap in any epidemic. There will have been an overlap with ebola and the bubonic plague. So of course how many additional deaths there are would be a different figure.

BUT there was estimated to be half a million die from this without government action. Half a million people die from all causes in England and Wales every year. So at a rough guess an additional 250,000 to 400,000 additional deaths with no government action.

Yes, though we don't usually find so many fit healthy under-60 HCPs ventilated during the regular winter 'flu season. I could be wrong but I think if you were in the front line primary care or ITU then you might not be so confident picking anecdotal reports. Let's hope you're right or the power of positive thinking helps those HCPs recover or provides some comfort to their families if they pass.

Lastly I think that dying when everyone has done everything they could is a different situation to Drs saying help us so we are not overwhelmed to the point of Italy.

Contract tracing would have worked if done very early on and seriously. It never was.

I'm actually genuinely convinced half of us have already had it

There have been some threads on here discussing this and some people have got very angry at the notion some people might have had it early on. I don't know why. I think it's entirely possible. It started in China in what, December? It could have easily been here in late January, if not before. Equally of course, at this time of year, there are lots of bugs in circulation, so who knows? It would be great to do one of the antibody tests when they are ready. Not sure what criteria they will use but it would eg be interesting to know if any of the people with the tight chest/band around the chest symptoms have had it or whether that is another bug unhelpfully circulating at the same time.

I've no idea if the study is right, and nor do I claim to understand all this, but I have wondered how it could've stayed confined to China for a couple of months. We know it was circulating in Wuhan in November and December, and that people were travelling in and out. Seems like some of those people would've had it and been contagious with low or no symptoms. I actually wonder how other countries could've avoided getting some cases then.

@marginalgain what I meant was - the doctors on the frontline are saying that from what they have seen the virus is now out of control - and that they have seen nothing like it before - and that it will get worse and worse and worse.

@bluntness100 I think the overlap point is highly relevant in terms of analysis but the priority now - the immediate need - is to stop the virus - as per the medical input.

Finally I found my people! ☺️ I have been asking the same questions ever since it started but found that most people can't analyse data or think critically whatsoever. Please, please share and repost all all the links wherever you can so hopefully more people will wake up to the fact that we are sleepwalking into a far bigger crisis than CV.

It is a very interesting thread.

I admit at the start of things I was of the opinion looking at the numbers that we should let it run through the population. As horrific as it is to say, we do have a problem with an aging population, many, many of them suffering from dementia and other horrific, untreatable diseases.

We have extended the average age of dying to the point where we can keep alive the oldest, weakest, most compromised mentally and physically. Getting to 100 is no longer newsworthy. It's 105 that gets a mention on the news.

Added to that the poor health of the rest of the nation. The obesity. The diabetic (caused by litestyle not type 1). The high blood pressure. The heart disease. The long term impacts of long term smoking, alcohol abuse, drug abuse. We have children with rickets for fuck sake.

And I don't think the UK is alone with these problems. We keep hearing 'x age with pre existing conditions'. What percentage of the conditions are caused by a poor lifestyle? Am not blaming any individual for poor health. As a developed country with all we have available to us, we should be doing better as a nation healthwise.

And it's not the virus on its own that is overwhelming the NHS. The NHS has a winter flu crisis every year. Every year we see the headlines. Norovirus causes carnage on wards because the wards are already at breaking point just dealing with the nation's poor health which, a large portion of, is avoidable.

Am sorry that's all a bit of a brainfart. But after a fucking horrific week realising my dd wouldn't sit her GCSEs and my ds won't see his friends for months and at 6 doesn't understand why he can't or see his nan or go for his swimming lessons or tell his teacher goodbye when she retired at easter, I am starting to get fucking angry with it all. My friend works in care. She has told me the last 2 years how horrific care is, how half of them haven't a clue what's going on and spend most days terrified or being violent and I wonder of the % that would die if left unchecked, how many it would be a blessing for and how many doctors and nurses will die from it by being overwhelmed trying to save the lives of 75 year olds with no comprehension of who they are. And if we just didn't try to save those people and didn't record them as covid 19 deaths, more age related or dementia related or cancer or heart failure how many people would actually die?

My kids are lucky. I will do my best but many others will suffer because of this. And instead of fighting to save the elderly and the ones with serious pre existing conditions we should be concentrating on the rest of the population.

I like the sheilding idea. And bojo has actually surprised me and I hope he continues to hold his nerve and believe in the science and not the hysteria.

Of course there is an overlap in COVID deaths with those who would have died anyway in say 6 months

However, most were not terminally ill

Most of the younger or middle-aged victims with "underlying health conditions" - which some MNers immediately seize on -
would have had decades of life expectancy in normal times

These are conditions like T2, raised blood pressure, asthma, BMI over 40 ....
people can normally expect to live to a ripe old age with these

People can often live many years with more serious conditions like CVD; cancer, transplants etc

Most of the older fatalities too, would have had a few, or several, years life expectancy,
even though in poor health - the NHS would have kept them going

So why are such large groups of elderly people being wiped out in nursing homes? Flu doesn’t wipe out whole groups in one building, the way this does. We have vaccines against flu and until we have vaccines against this, I’ll continue to treat this as a pandemic, instead of making excuses.

It’s irresponsible because it encourages people to minimise the effects of the epidemic and leads to them thinking they can ignore advice.
There’s some deliberate misdirection and obfuscation going on here IMO.

@Bluntness100 I am fully following government advice, supporting elderly neighbours and have volunteered for the local group. So I am a fully paid-up member of following the rules- questioning and analyzing what we are in is a valid activity at any time - I haven't seen anyone here say they shouldn't. So I don't see this thread as irresponsible.