Coronavirus may have infected half of UK population — Oxford study

[Lycidas]

‘New epidemiological model shows vast majority of people suffer little or no illness.’

www.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-6dd8-11ea-89df-41bea055720b

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“The research presents a very different view of the epidemic to the modelling at Imperial College London, which has strongly influenced government policy. “I am surprised that there has been such unqualified acceptance of the Imperial model,” said Prof Gupta.

However, she was reluctant to criticise the government for shutting down the country to suppress viral spread, because the accuracy of the Oxford model has not yet been confirmed and, even if it is correct, social distancing will reduce the number of people becoming seriously ill and relieve severe pressure on the NHS during the peak of the epidemic.”

A glimmer of hope. They’re gonna start with the antibody testing very soon.

The health systems will be overwhelmed with mental health crises next year, as well as more obesity and vitamin D deficiency, as well as all the routine operations and cancer treatments they've cancelled. I'm not sure the response is proportionate, and we won't know until we test everybody for antibodies.

If there is no excess death rats why are health services in Italy being overwhelmed?

I think there must be a balance between zero impact and mass killer, surely.

Are no excess death rates*

But why are so many of the patients with symptoms in hospitals testing negative then?

20% of the planet is in lockdown at the moment. 20%!

Are we willing to surrender our liberty indefinitely to preserve the short-term viability of our health systems? I'm in no doubt about the importance of our health systems, incidentally. Rather, I'm in shock over the lack of discussion bout the importance of balancing this against our liberty, autonomy, and livelihoods.

@MarginalGain I know a very uncomfortable thought - he has been briefed extremely well no doubt and want to stick his neck out on this. My hunch it is the Salem Witch Trials x 100000 it's what humans do periodically they go mad (aka war). Really bad viruses die out quickly as they manifest their morbidity pdq and so can be whack-a-moled out quickly as well.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salem_witch_trials

@MarginalGain, I totally agree. We all have to catch it at some point or wait 18 months for a vaccine, if it is even fully effective. Are we really going to do this for 18+ months? Is it worth it? The amount of disruption and damage it will cause will be untold and probably unknown until afterwards.

I argued this at the start of it all.

Given Italys aged population how many of the elderly would a normal bad flu season have taken out? I remember 97 Inthink being a bad flu year for the UK and I think more recently 07?

I am torn between being terrified of being in hospital to disbelief at the numbers when you break them down. Then you see the 4000 new beds in London and wonder is it really going to be that horrific? Or is it more horrific that we don't have the resources because thats what it comes down too. A pandemic of failing health care combined with an ageing population.

It's horrible to ask, but how many of the 400+ who died in the UK so far were suffering from dementia or severe heart disease or cancer? Is a swift 14 day illness and death really that horrific compared to 10 years in a failing social care system?

Has anyone managed to find a link to the study?

I've been crying intermittently over the weekend because I feel so completely lost in all of this, I keep wondering - where are the civil libertarians? I have heard nothing but public support for this unprecedented disruption of epic proportions and I just keep thinking, how could I be so monumentally out of step with 93% of the planet?

It's horrible to ask, but how many of the 400+ who died in the UK so far were suffering from dementia or severe heart disease or cancer? Is a swift 14 day illness and death really that horrific compared to 10 years in a failing social care system?

I have been asking this same question.

600,000 people die every year in the UK. Has anyone done a proper statistical analysis of the overlap?

Has anyone managed to find a link to the study?

I gather it's not yet published but the authors have given an interview to the FT.

The reason for lockdown is to stop the health systems getting overwhelmed and death % being higher.

This. There is no doubt that ICUs are overwhelmed with people with C19 and that elective surgery, including for cancer, is being cancelled to allow for the C19 patients to receive acute care. Stopping it from spreading further is the only option to prevent even more people from not getting the healthcare they need.

I desperately want the Oxford model to be correct, though.

Thank god for this thread. The world has gone mad.

@WiseUpJanetWeiss we all do and there is increasing evidence that it probably is.

Given Italys aged population how many of the elderly would a normal bad flu season have taken out? Spain's number of elderly is only 1% different to the UK's (i.e demolishing the "Italy has an old population and that's why it's badly affected) so why is Spain badly affected?

Thank god for this thread. The world has gone mad.

Yes. I can't believe what has happened, I feel like I'm in an episode of the Handmaid's Tale

Everything I've read for a week or two has said 40-70% will be infected. That's how the herd immunity BS came about.

It's the impact on the NHS of that PLUS the usual Dying, Critical cases that the NHS deals with every day which have led to Lockdown.

If the NHS could switch off every other sickness, heart attack, and accident then it wouldn't be an issue at all.

Interesting! How do we know who’s dying with Coronavirus and who is dying because of it.

I was v hopeful when I saw this but very respected epidemiologists are totally poo pooing it on Twitter right now.

@lafaraona that said we all need to be careful and wash our hands and help elderly and vulnerable neighbours and friends. That this is happening is a great outcome of this and the fact we need to support our NHS to the max and that life is short we need to make the most of it. I think a better world beckons as we leave this tunnel of fear. Hopefully very soon.

is it really going to be that horrific?

I can’t see how it won’t be. The London ICUs are already overwhelmed. Cancer surgery is being cancelled because we don’t have enough staff to cope with the sick people.

Vera your basic point seems to be that everyone dies anyway.

Special subject - the bleeding obvious?

My 96 yr old aunt died Saturday from CV. She had leukaemia and would have probably died this year from this or other age related illness. She was very depressed and in constant pain on high dose morphine patches. So it some ways CV shorten her suffering. I’m sure this is the case for many of the elderly people who have already died from CV.

@Frouby the reason Italys demise is so terrifying is because
a)they have a really healthy population , hence more elderly.
b)They have a kickass health system (for their own issues inc flu and the elderly)