This pandemic may be short

[cornishdreams1]

I wanted to share with you the article published today in the Times. Professor Levit a Nobel prize winner no less, and a mathematical genius has estimated after looking at the numbers that this pandemic will be short, and can be controlled. If we observe the restrictions now we can expect it to be over quickly.

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/pandemic-can-be-controlled-says-scientist-michael-levitt-bp7qd39lv

The whole world of medicine is working on an antidote, there have been some very encouraging progress, the vaccine is being tested now (after skipping other stages because it is so urgent)

nypost.com/2020/03/18/japanese-flu-drug-clearly-effective-in-treating-coronavirus-officials-say/

There is every reason to believe that this is not going to be the new normal, but a short blip until we are able to get find a solution. The world economy is banking on a quick fix, so lets hope it will be with us soon.
WE may change in the process, the country may change in many ways after this, but this is not going to be our lives forever.

We should prepare mentally for a long lockdown, but for those that need at least a flicker of hope that we will be peaking soon, and back on the downward trajectory and back to some sort of normal, there is science behind that as well. Look at HK, China and S.Korea.

Pandemics may become regular, or this may never happen again, but the sun is shining this morning and we are all well enough to post on here.

Thank you for a lovely positive post.

I’ll go read your links.

If people stay the fuck home ... The threads "can I do this?” are making my eyes bleed

I don't think people will be able to cope this time next week without hope.
Non yes, if we all stay at home this will be over quickly. If people don't do this, then we are going to be hit by the most almighty crisis, possibly even worse than the one unfolding in Italy. I am with you on that. But this is a thread to say there is hope that it will not last forever.

Sadly can’t read the information without paying to subscribe

That is heartening. Thank you

THANK YOU! a positive post at last- it is much appreciated.

Such a refreshing change from the "the end is nigh" posters.

Is there any way the link can be shared without having to pay for it? tokens?

Thanks for some hope, as you rightly say, we need it.

Nice that one of the relevant geniuses thinks so, but I’m not going to bet the farm on it. Or book holidays.

I’d rather brace for two years and be pleasantly surprised when/if it’s much shorter.

Well, in a nutshell ello Professor Levitt having studied the maths, was initially incredibly alarmed by the numbers coming out of Wuhan, at one point the rate of people being infected was at 30% - which means in 90 days 80% of the world would have been infected, hence the quick and absolute lockdown.

Since then he has had the chance to analyse 78 nations, and having crunched the numbers, it appears the pandemic peaks quickly and retreats quickly once restrictions are tightened.
Hopefully we will see this in Italy in the coming days. If his theory is right, and many other leading scientists are also in agreement, this pandemic will be short and sweet basically. But only if we observe the restrictions now.

We do not have to endure this indefinitely either, we need to wait this out for a vaccine/antidote to be rolled out.

Here's a share token: www.thetimes.co.uk/article/pandemic-can-be-controlled-says-scientist-michael-levitt-bp7qd39lv?shareToken=c634139b87a8ba9dd521a3dfe96f5ed9

Thanks for your post. I have hope. 🤞🤞🤞🤞

Thanks op, and yes, there are many drugs now being tested to cure this with initial indications of success. If we slow the spread and they find a drug, which is highly likely, they may even have more than one, and which drug will be dependent on which stage you are at, then yes, it could be over in weeks.

They just need to stop people needing hospitalisation till they get there.

At this stage there is absolutely no reason to think these trials will fail and the scientific community cannot achieve an effective treatment.

Since then he has had the chance to analyse 78 nations, and having crunched the numbers, it appears the pandemic peaks quickly and retreats quickly once restrictions are tightened.

But haven’t various other scientists said that we will continue to get mini-peaks every time restrictions are relaxed?

Sorry to be the voice of misery, but there does seem to be a lot of expert disagreement and false hope is the worst thing.

Some people find hope obstructive if they are mentally preparing for the worst, so this may not the best thread for you at the moment, but for some of us may be feeling despair, depressed, frightened or already at the end of their tether (and I have felt all four of these emotions in the last two week of isolation) then sharing good news is really vital, I felt a lifting of my own spirits anyway!
Esp as I have been trying to book a food delivery since 3am red eyed and feeling pretty hollowed out, any spirit lifting is very much needed in this house today Another day of homeschool is awaiting - yay!

Thank you. We just all need to pull together and follow the advice.
It's not rocket Science-
A lovely example from Germany- some areas have appealed to the general public & they are adhering to the advice. If you look at the statistics, they are doing overall very well in terms of Infection/ death cases. (I know there is a huge health care machine working in the background... but it would be nothing without the support of the general public. )

Thankyou. It’s good to read something positive right now. I have faith in the science, I just hope the people follow orders.

I don’t know. Hope from anti-viral trials feels more solid to me. I’ll take that. And I think I read something about hydrocortisone/antiviral combination treatments being tried?

Maybe I’m being dim, but how is he modelling accurately when so few territories have relaxed restrictions to date?

You pick your expert and in that way you pick your own brand of hope I suppose 🤷🏽‍♀️

Look at HK, China and S.Korea.

You do realise all these countries have implemented incredibly draconian measures? In SK they enacted emergency legislation and used mobile phone data to track people’s every move over the infectious period and posted it anonymously online so other people could see if they’d crossed paths & might be exposed, then tested, tested, tested. A lot of measures they’ve used would not be tolerated here. There are also community acquired cases in SK and a fear there’ll be spread once they ease restrictions. It’s too early to say we’re out of the woods. If we resume our globe-trotting habits, I can see this becoming endemic and being managed like forest fires breaking out here, there and everywhere.

Thank you, OP. It is so nice to read a thread that isn’t just panicking and screaming at people. It’s hard to find a balance between clinging to false hope that will be worse when it’s dashed, and not descending into under misery. I hugely appreciate that you’re trying

blunt exactly! Every effort and the world's resources are now going into finding a medical solution for this, because we can not function without one. Not finding a solution is not an option.
The one thing we can be sure about is the world collective effort, when combined like this can and will do this. It is just a matter of time.

This time next year it may be that we trot along to the GP for a packet of tablets at the first hint of coronavirus. At the very least, we know the coronavirus family. It is not an unknown entity to us, so that will offer some advantage to those devoted to saving the world.

They are the real heroes of our time.

Article about corona virus mutations and how its not as scary as we think:
edition.cnn.com/2020/03/07/health/coronavirus-mutations-analysis/index.html

I can’t fully open them. I don’t have a times subscription & the other one won’t open

But let’s hope he’s right.

If everyone follows the rules & does as much as they can to prevent the spread it will save lives. Wash hands, clean houses & stuff (wash the virus away) and goes shopping as infrequently as possible, doesn’t socialise & doesn’t take their kids to the play park, at the very least we can keep the peak flatter & give the NHS some chance to save lives.

Anyone who can WFH needs to,report employers not allowing it and ‘suck it up’ if you get bored and would rather work in the office - now is not the time to prioritise that.

Don’t visit friends & family - and do wash your hands, clean your house and keep cleaning worktops, hand rails, door handles/knobs and remotes etc. Give all your outdoor clothes a wash - basically wash the bastard virus away!

Thank you for a positive message.

There will be an effective treatment - it was found for HIV after money was poured in, it was found for Ebola when money was poured in. The company who produced the most effective treatment for Ebola are using the same technique to find a treatment for COVID-19.

Even the badly affected will usually recover IF the facilities are available. Which means that if a drug only works on 50% of the seriously ill it will help the other 50% too.

Thanks for the hopeful message op xx