This pandemic may be short

[cornishdreams1]

I wanted to share with you the article published today in the Times. Professor Levit a Nobel prize winner no less, and a mathematical genius has estimated after looking at the numbers that this pandemic will be short, and can be controlled. If we observe the restrictions now we can expect it to be over quickly.

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/pandemic-can-be-controlled-says-scientist-michael-levitt-bp7qd39lv

The whole world of medicine is working on an antidote, there have been some very encouraging progress, the vaccine is being tested now (after skipping other stages because it is so urgent)

nypost.com/2020/03/18/japanese-flu-drug-clearly-effective-in-treating-coronavirus-officials-say/

There is every reason to believe that this is not going to be the new normal, but a short blip until we are able to get find a solution. The world economy is banking on a quick fix, so lets hope it will be with us soon.
WE may change in the process, the country may change in many ways after this, but this is not going to be our lives forever.

We should prepare mentally for a long lockdown, but for those that need at least a flicker of hope that we will be peaking soon, and back on the downward trajectory and back to some sort of normal, there is science behind that as well. Look at HK, China and S.Korea.

Pandemics may become regular, or this may never happen again, but the sun is shining this morning and we are all well enough to post on here.

We must not let our guard down though.

Here in Germany, last night my upstairs neighbours had a party. Went round and reminded them of the 25,000 eur fines they could face. They were very friendly, but told me they knew all about it. Not sure why people think Germans are any better at self-isolating than others? If we do have the trick to this, it will be the horrendous sums we pay in health insurance. Look to South Korea if you want to see the effect of rigorous isolation.

Thankyou OP. Such a relief to read something hopeful.

Hopefully. And I think the curve in Italy hasn’t been as steep the last two days which is positive.

There are a lot of people online who seem oddly emotionally invested in worst case scenario.

In part, it's wanting to be proved right and be 'I told you so' down the line.

Funnily enough, my mum has a degree specialism in viral epidemiology, so I took an early interest in it. I'm not a specialist, but I am interested in the different scientific opinions on this.

A woman in the office who thought the whole thing was 'not going to be a big deal' is now screeching that the schools will be shut til September, nothing will be open for a year... all based on what businesses and schools have told her. Not what the scientists are modelling.

I wouldn't mind, but she's using the internal messaging system to sound off about that nonsense.

Thank you OP. I needed to read this this morning.

Thank you, OP.

All hope taken, here.
If anyone has missed it: South Korea are fast-tracking a 10-minute prototype test kit. They expect production to commence soon.

That will be the game-changer as we can swiftly pin down the asymptomatic people who spread it, as well as distinguish between Corvid-19 and a simple cough.

The sooner we can pull out of this, the better.

The Apocalyptic players (who frankly remind me of rubber neckers on a motorway crash) should think less about Europe and more about Africa and South America. The virus running amok in the shanty towns is a genuinely horrifying scenario.

There are a lot of people online who seem oddly emotionally invested in worst case scenario.

No it’s just management of expectation. Some people naturally prefer to be optimistic and some prefer to plan for the worst and hope for the best. Just different personality types.

Thank you from me, too, for such a positive post. I live in a country where social distancing is not understood and whilst we are doing our best to keep our distance from others and only go out for essential reasons, we see so many around us who don't take any care at all! It's frightening! So it is great to see something hopeful like this, thank you!

We live in a usually busy beauty spot, and not a peep this morning. I have seen one dog walker hurry by and thats it, it seems the message for most people at least has hit home.

The Apocalyptic players (who frankly remind me of rubber neckers on a motorway crash) should think less about Europe and more about Africa and South America. The virus running amok in the shanty towns is a genuinely horrifying scenario.

You aren't kidding!

These poor people have little in the way of healthcare to start off with, and are often badly nourished, don't have access to decent sanitation or clean water and live in dreadfully overcrowded conditions - it's going to be horrific for them, poor souls. They have got the least benefit out of the development of technology etc, but are going to be paying the biggest price.

Thank you for sharing. I needed this today.

Thank you so much @cornishdreams1!

I am feeling awful about it all and a spark of hope will keep me going 😃

What is an SK tag that was being waved around.?I had a job to sleep last night, dont sleep much, retired from 25 years of nights nursing mostly for the NHS, perhaps all the people slagging it off might now realise how lucky we are. Drs on the front posted annonimously, and like them I have sen lot of people struggling to breath for different reasons, and been so tired on a shift, having moved to 3 short of staff wards, no break, sat on the loo and closed my eyes for a couple of minutes. Yes, there will be an answer and it will get better. I have also done all the emotions you describe, and agree with other poster, idiots asking if they can do this that and the other.

nannybeach

You and others like you have kept the service going despite successive governments attempts to starve it to death and then cash in by selling the corpse.

Lets hope that this is the wake-up call our greedy, idle politicians need to do something about the state of it.

And thank you - for all of your sleepless nights, umpteen-hour shifts, and the physical and emotional overload you and your colleagues have carried over the years.

Hey OP, think I'm like you - I know it might go on longer, I know I'll cope if it does, but reading hopeful things like that helps me keep my head up. I need the little positivity injections!

Thanks :)

Thanks so much for this positive message. I think we will become a more caring, decent society as a result of this, and the NHS and its staff will in the future be given the credit it deserves.

There are lots of reasons to be hopeful Wuhan (yesterday) had no new cases for a run of 5 days, plus the mortality rate in Germany is comparatively low. Lockdown measures can and do work. Plus we have world leading science community working on vaccines and knowledge of the virus.

My daughters (19 and 21) have taken the restrictions seriously from the outset. My eldest even quizzed me this morning on the trip I planned to get "essentials" from town and we decided as a family not to do it as nothing screamingly urgent to get. If we all collectively take this seriously for 3 weeks, the lock down may be short and effective.

Thank you.

nanny When our friends returned to Hong Kong from London a few weeks ago, they arrived into a special area, had their temperatures taken, and then they were issued with a tag on their wrists, you can not take it off (inc children)
It is similar to the ones we use here when convicted criminals when they are sentenced with electronic tagging, to ensure they observe curfews etc. In Hong Kong have to wear it for two weeks and stay at home. It is an enforced quarantine, but it works. The tag is linked to a surveillance company that monitors all movements. I was replying to Boaty, as she said some of the measures taken in Asia won't work here, I was in an agreement. If we stay at home we won't need them.

South Korea are also trialling similar things, in South Korea you can see if anyone around you has CV from a small red dot on a map on your phone!

All of the NHS staff especially those on the front line deserve every ounce and support we can give them. They tirelessly put themselves in harms way to save lives. I can't actually talk about them without feeling quite emotional about it. Amazing people.

No it’s just management of expectation. Some people naturally prefer to be optimistic and some prefer to plan for the worst and hope for the best. Just different personality types

No. I clarified I was not referring to people being sensible and basing their expectations on science. I specifically said that.
I’m referring to people screeching that the end is nigh, people who are enjoying stirring up panic and stating ”facts” that are unsubstantiated. Please don’t tell me those people don’t exist because they do- I see them on here and all over social media. If you haven’t seen them I suggest that’s because unconsciously you are screening them out. But they are there and they aren’t helping anyone. They are getting off on this. You can see from the way they phrasing things. It’s very obvious who those people are.

Anyway, don’t want this to turn negative so thanks OP again. This is very heartening news

Thank you for your kind words, I have even toyed with the idea of volunteering my services, but am now in the at risk bracket because of age and health, I also have a diabled son 30 miles away, trying to do my best.

No one will be a snowflake in this country after this, resilience will be the reward for every one of us will be the result.
My young teen dd was having abit of meltdown, which is not really surprising given the situation, and as she cried in my arms I realised she is learning something very valuable in all of this, no longer will the spot on her chin/ bad photo/annoying friends remain the be and end all.

This is a test for her, and for all of our children, and there will hopefully be a sense of pride in coming through such a crisis. I know some children that already struggle with MH may find it much harder, but at least no one anywhere will call them snowflakes after this.

I’m referring to people screeching that the end is nigh, people who are enjoying stirring up panic and stating ”facts” that are unsubstantiate

Oh them. Sorry. Yes, they abound. And annoy.

I’m clearly too sleep deprived for complicated threads this morning.

Italy yesterday in their second consecutive day of falling deaths. Fingers crossed.