This pandemic may be short

[cornishdreams1]

I wanted to share with you the article published today in the Times. Professor Levit a Nobel prize winner no less, and a mathematical genius has estimated after looking at the numbers that this pandemic will be short, and can be controlled. If we observe the restrictions now we can expect it to be over quickly.

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/pandemic-can-be-controlled-says-scientist-michael-levitt-bp7qd39lv

The whole world of medicine is working on an antidote, there have been some very encouraging progress, the vaccine is being tested now (after skipping other stages because it is so urgent)

nypost.com/2020/03/18/japanese-flu-drug-clearly-effective-in-treating-coronavirus-officials-say/

There is every reason to believe that this is not going to be the new normal, but a short blip until we are able to get find a solution. The world economy is banking on a quick fix, so lets hope it will be with us soon.
WE may change in the process, the country may change in many ways after this, but this is not going to be our lives forever.

We should prepare mentally for a long lockdown, but for those that need at least a flicker of hope that we will be peaking soon, and back on the downward trajectory and back to some sort of normal, there is science behind that as well. Look at HK, China and S.Korea.

Pandemics may become regular, or this may never happen again, but the sun is shining this morning and we are all well enough to post on here.

@clymene- thank you for the token!

Thank you for this OP.

Thanks for the positive post, it's like a breath of fresh air.

In Italy they are still having new cases but already seeing fewer new cases each day for the last two days. So their lockdown is starting to work! We can do it too, if people follow the rules and stay home.

arrietty Yes we may well get mini peaks once restrictions are relaxed, but if we have the opportunity to treat those in the early stages with anti viral drugs, we will not have overwhelmed hospitals with people that have either left it too late for them to be effective, or that are so seriously ill by the time the clinicians get to them that the newest and most effective drugs don't work.

It is about controlling the disease at this point I understand, not eliminating it, we can eliminate it once the vaccine has been rolled out/or we have immunity from already being infected. The vaccine is probably the safer route given all we know about herd immunity now.

I am no world expert, but common sense tells me that there is no way in gods earth this will continue to rampage through unabated. We will have a solution soon - it is a matter of how soon.

Oh so it’s a drugs plus staggering the peaks kind of deal? Let’s hope he is right.

I’ll have a coffee and read the share token link in full.

boaty

My friends and their children have been tagged in SK and are at home in quarantine, she was waving her tag around on face time yesterday to our horror, their movements are more or less tracked rigorously by a company not dissimilar to G4S serving convicted criminals here in UK, so I know what you are saying.
I have friends in HK and China too, and they say they are definitely coming out the other side, they are now experiencing little mini flashes of CV as the ex pats are returning home and going out all of the time In Asia they clamped down hard and fast after their experience with Sars, and it has worked.
I accept we may, or may not see the measures working here, however we don't need to lock people up for it to work. We just need to keep people at home.

Germany reported this morning, they believe they are successfully flattening the curve there, stats will be published tomorrow.

If this is controlled in whatever way works, then we buy time to come up with medical solutions. We buy time and lives by doing this.

Thank you for a positive post.

I just hope that if it is over quickly it doesn't make people complacent if/when it happens again. (We are such an arrogant species!)

I hope that we will learn from it in so many ways - ensuring that we have medical capacity to at least contain outbreaks, that staff are plentiful, properly trained and well-equipped; that our police forces and fire service are brought to a decent strength - and that people who demand that they are the exception to every rule are told to STFU and get on with it. Rules apply to all. Get over it.

I've slept so badly over the last few nights - I am quite literally sick with fright at the thought of the world my children are inheriting - and this has given me a ray of hope.

I don't want to be too optimistic, I really don't as this is a horrible situation for all of us, but I wondered this morning if we will really change as a country. Will we start to see the NHS as something we need to really invest in properly rather than keeping it on life support year after year, our carers will finally get the recognition they deserve having trudged out in the middle of a pandemic to care for their elderly clients. The overworked school teachers calmly guiding the children through the crisis even when they are scared witless themselves.

I wonder if at this moment, and all the horror of it, will be a game changer for our country.

We have a chance of a reset, a chance to start again with this pandemic.

We are being forced to slow down for a reason, and it would be a hell of silver lining if we somehow managed to become a much more equitable and caring country in the process.

Thanks for your thread. This is somewhat reassuring and a lovely early morning read.

I’d like to add a question, which has been puzzling me. How long will immunity last? We don’t know that but from what I’ve read, I think there is a possibility that we can get reinfected, just probably not straight away. However, once we’ve had it once, this will no longer be a novel virus to our system - perhaps this means we will find it easier to fight the next time around. Idk.

Perhaps there is some hope it won’t be as bad if / when we get a second wave - unlike Spanish flu. After all as has been made very clear once again in the NY post article regarding treatment, this is not flu and doesn’t act like flu.

Have a good and safe day all. 😊

Cross post - well said, yes. I’ve read speculation on other threads that this may finally make us into more of a socialist country. We have a lot to learn from our French and German neighbours.

mummy The herd immunity idea initially was based on the opinion that people would not be reinfected, at least not in the short term, so there must be a sound science evidence. In fact we would already see China being reinfected on a mass scale if that was the case I guess, as they are now returning to work etc.

The difference, I have read between coronavirus and Spanish flu is our ability to treat patients, our knowledge has evolved about how the viruses work and spread, and we are much better prepared for pandemics than we were back then.

Thank you for this. I have determined today to only check the news once a day and to only read positive threads or threads about anything but CV here on MN. Perhaps then I won't wake up heart racing and sweating multiple times a night. Mind you I dreamt my ex husband had moved back in last night 😱 which could have contributed.

mummy We have a long way to go, but coronavirus is certainly a great leveller.

ygritte that would make anyone sweat multiple times!

Will we start to see the NHS as something we need to really invest in properly rather than keeping it on life support year after year, our carers will finally get the recognition they deserve having trudged out in the middle of a pandemic to care for their elderly clients. The overworked school teachers calmly guiding the children through the crisis even when they are scared witless themselves.
I wonder if at this moment, and all the horror of it, will be a game changer for our country.
it would be a hell of silver lining if we somehow managed to become a much more equitable and caring country in the process.

I'm praying for this too - that our societal obsession with getting more and more will be brought under control as we learn that a house full of stuff is just more to clean and disinfect when something like this hits, and that they only truly valuable things in our lives are people and creation.

I'm not a particularly sociable person - I used to love to go away for a week, on my own, and just veg - not speak to anyone - read, listen to the radio - so I shouldn't be feeling the social isolation - but today I am because it is no longer choice. Odd, isn't it?

We have a chance to turn our greedy world around - I do hope we take it.

Thank you OP! It’s great to read a positive thread. There are a lot of people online who seem oddly emotionally invested in worst case scenario. I can’t figure out if it’s the drama of it that attracts them or if it’s some way of preparing for the worst as a vaccine for their own anxiety.

Trouble is- it’s not working. People claiming it “helps them prepare” appear the most unable to listen to reason and fact. If you dare suggest things will go back to normal they act like a child having its teddy forcibly taken away. It’s disturbing.
(Caveat- I’m not referring to people outlining the factual risks or stats. I’m referring to people peddling the end of the world scenario, lockdown will last until 2378, nothing will ever be normal again etc- those people).

Thank you for such a positive post. It has lifted my spirit this morning.

I sincerely hope that after this the whole country, Tories included, will realise the crucial importance of properly funding the NHS and training our own doctors and nurses.

I 100% believe a way of living with this virus as a population will be found through a combination of partial natural immunity through catching it, vaccination and anti viral treatment.

But the public need to do their part and maintain high standards of self hygiene even after the worst of this is behind us.

My DH is an engineer so maths is part of his forte and he bored me to tears last week harping on about exponential growth. In layman’s terms, every country will hit a peak (Italy has sadly already hit that with catastrophic consequences) then it will decline which is happening in Italy right now. This will happen all over the world, every country will seem to get worse before it gets better but it won’t last forever, these things never do.

Great article, thank you.
Unfortunately, as pointed out, the US is still,pleasing itself.
Loads of internal flights.
Our only hope is a military coup in the US taking control once and for all.

If people are properly self-isolating, with only truly necessary trips out/necessary deviations from the isolation made rather than "bending the rules" (and we all know the difference) then it can't spread. At the very least, not as furiously and at the very best, not at all. There is some info regarding aerosol spread within a certain range, but it is literally not in all the air all of the time. The infection rate can then and will then reduce. When that happens, the NHS has chance and also it buys time for scientists to discover a vaccine.

Stay strong people. Stay apart, wash your hands etc etc etc.

Apologies for the dreadful almost unforgivable mistakes in my posts, have running on 4 hours sleep for nearly two weeks. I am not at my best it has to be said

I think most of the airlines should be allowed to go out of business and fares should double. This pandemic has shown how mass flights spread viruses. Not to mention the emissions, there are people trapped in places without healthcare or minimal healthcare. More thought needs to be given as to where you go, especially if you have health problems.

The US has over 46000 cases now, with a rise of thousands each day I am not sure internal flights will continue for much longer. NY is already in lockdown, and I expect most cities will end up in the same position. The US now has the most cases than anywhere else after Italy and China ( we have to consider the size of the population too, but still it is an eye watering increase) my guess is they are going the same way as the rest of us. Lockdown.