This pandemic may be short

[cornishdreams1]

I wanted to share with you the article published today in the Times. Professor Levit a Nobel prize winner no less, and a mathematical genius has estimated after looking at the numbers that this pandemic will be short, and can be controlled. If we observe the restrictions now we can expect it to be over quickly.

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/pandemic-can-be-controlled-says-scientist-michael-levitt-bp7qd39lv

The whole world of medicine is working on an antidote, there have been some very encouraging progress, the vaccine is being tested now (after skipping other stages because it is so urgent)

nypost.com/2020/03/18/japanese-flu-drug-clearly-effective-in-treating-coronavirus-officials-say/

There is every reason to believe that this is not going to be the new normal, but a short blip until we are able to get find a solution. The world economy is banking on a quick fix, so lets hope it will be with us soon.
WE may change in the process, the country may change in many ways after this, but this is not going to be our lives forever.

We should prepare mentally for a long lockdown, but for those that need at least a flicker of hope that we will be peaking soon, and back on the downward trajectory and back to some sort of normal, there is science behind that as well. Look at HK, China and S.Korea.

Pandemics may become regular, or this may never happen again, but the sun is shining this morning and we are all well enough to post on here.

Thanks for the positive share, OP. Like many others on here, this isolation is exacerbating previous mental health problems I have (OCD) so this is hopeful news.

maybe the End of Days thing is just baked into some people and finds new outlets over times.

To be fair, I've been waiting to go all Ray Mears on a situation since I was about eight. But now it's happening I'm all keep calm and carry on, planting potatoes in the garden and trying to calm down my more hysterical staff.

I agree that’s a positive message but then...people are still not staying the f at home.

We have already been in lockdown in Ireland for two weeks.

I wish they could tell us how much longer

haven’t various other scientists said that we will continue to get mini-peaks every time restrictions are relaxed

I think mini-peaks are still part of the plan: this is pure, idle speculation, but I suspect that if after three weeks the number of new cases flatlines, there will be a very small ease on restrictions; a manageable number of new cases will emerge, most won't be serious, but there will be resources for those that are; it'll flatline again, and so on until we have high level immunity - and hopefully treatment and a vaccine.

That presupposes that there is in fact any middle ground between lockdown and freedom. I can imagine if they say something like "those under 35 with no underlying health conditions are now authorised to return to work, and cafes are authorised to reopen for takeaway orders", it'll be like the beginning of the London marathon.

Someone on a different thread was all "you need to understand that nothing will ever be the same again" at me and I was just going, look, how is this helping? In what way does giving up and encouraging others to do the same improve the situation?

TheProdigalKittensReturn - agree. I had an ex like that. If he was worried he had to put all his anxiety on to others and make then scared.

In what way does giving up and encouraging others to do the same improve the situation?

I think MN need to be quite wise here and not let the hysterical posts stay up for too long. It really doesn't help anyone's mindsets to constant spout negativity surely?

Something really major that I wish people would take away from this is that these things, the science behind it all, the statistics, etc. are COMPLEX. One of the worst things has been how everybody suddenly thinks they're an expert and is dictating what they believe are the facts, frightening people and whipping up panic.

It only takes one Nobel Prize winner to say wait, why are we focusing so much on cumulative total cases and not daily NEW cases, and suddenly the people ranting about Italy facing the apocalypse don't feel so certain.

And let me say, maybe this guy is wrong and it actually IS as bad as other people are saying. But also maybe we should all be a bit more humble and admit that the vast majority of us know very little about all of this. There are so many dimensions to the problem, different perspectives, the novelty of it all, that even the experts can't agree. So maybe stop calling people f**king idiots for not agreeing with your lay opinion. Just because you read one article on something does not mean you should go about repeating it as an indisputable truth and insulting anyone who dares disagree.

Thank you so much for this. We all need this positivity at this time 😊

I'm growing increasingly irritated with the people running around trying to get everyone else to panic. Panic is not helpful, because panicking people do not on the whole behave very well towards others.

I agree - the panicking and hysterical posters are helping no one. As someone said on another thread, imagine if we were all like that?

Also, I think some people, if they have the impression that we're all doomed, are more likely to say, well fuck it then, I'm going to the park or the pub or the beach.

Ideally you want people to be really concerned, maybe a bit scared, but not panicked or fatalistic.

I think the messaging in Germany has been really good and that helps explain why people are obeying the rules, and also there is very little panic buying.

Also, I think some people, if they have the impression that we're all doomed, are more likely to say, well fuck it then, I'm going to the park or the pub or the beach.

Ideally you want people to be really concerned, maybe a bit scared, but not panicked or fatalistic.

I think the messaging in Germany has been really good and that helps explain why people are obeying the rules, and also there is very little panic buying.

This is also why the countries that went through SARS have a big advantage here. They have been here before---well, kind of. People just get on with it. They are generally worried but not hysterical, for the most part. And that balance is just what you want.

surely there's a healthy middle ground between panicking and the ones very casual about everything.

Poster who are expressing their huge shock and unpreparedness to the (near) lock down are the worst possible case. Unless you come back from the jungle, you knew it was happening Yes, you do need food and bits when you have to spend 3 weeks - 3 months possibly more at home.
No, waiting until it's critical and the government is telling you to STAY HOME is not the time to run to the shops, or the ones still opened, order lots of crap on the internet and cry because you haven't got a printer, clothes for your kids and so on.

You are just making everything worst!

What we need is to do as other countries are doing, and imposant significant fines to the idiots. That calms things down a bit.

Let’s keep this thread positive 😊

Speaking from the future (ie a country where the rules have been in place a bit longer), for the first few days people weren't taking them seriously at all and shops etc were packed, as were the parks. But then there were some stern statements from local government and gradually we settled into a new normal where most people are figuring out how to go get food when they need to, get some fresh air etc without either congregating in groups or preparing for the zombie apocalypse. Hopefully that will happen in the UK too (it's where my family are so I certainly hope so).

I've been encountering those people in the most unlikely places, and the thing is, what happens if the majority of the population starts to think that way?

Is it not a symptom of how unhealthy our society is? Virtually everyone I know is on anti depressants struggling to cope with life on a day to day basis. Throw something like this into the mix, remove people's coping mechanisms and of course large numbers start to catastrophise.

Most common coronavirus is the common cold and they haven’t found a cure for that yet (not do we build up significant lasting immunity). Here’s hoping they do better with covid-19 though. Thank you for the interesting post.

It does seem quieter here today, though my 60 something medical receptionist neighbour has her toddler grandkids visiting again...

Thanks for this OP, it's nice to read something somewhat reassuring

Thankyou op for this post.

This is just one small patch of time, in a sea of time, and just like all things it will pass. Whether it passes now, or at some other time in the future. This will definitely end. We know this, because everything changes all of the time, nothing ever stays the same.

Right now there are teams and teams of scientists in all four corners of the globe racing to find a cure, racing to discover a vaccine. They are working together to find a way out for us, around the clock.
I personally genuinely do not think it will take long, they already have so many in the pipeline that are working and being tested in China, and they have been doing so for the last few months (not every country has our stringent testing standards it has to be noted) and so we are seeing some success already.

We only need one that works!

Never have we seen such a demand for a medical solution by so many, nor the stakes so very high.
I have every faith in the ability of our scientists to overcome this, and do so very quickly. Once we have a medical solution, it can be rolled out and replicated very very quickly all over the world.

One day coronavirus really will be yesterday's news, but in the meantime we must stay at home, and keep everyone safe so that we all get to the finishing line in tact, with just a story to tell rather than a tragedy.

Thanks OP for this positive and hopeful thread

I agree that’s a positive message but then...people are still not staying the f at home.

Likewise..I really hope some aren't going to take the view that since there's a theory doing the rounds that the pandemic is about to die out, and that there might be a cure in the form of hydroxychloroquine then it's OK to immediately ignore all the other current advice..

BTW just to show things are never as straightforward as we wish..

www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/lifesaving-lupus-drug-short-supply-after-trump-touts-possible-coronavirus-n1166981