This pandemic may be short

[cornishdreams1]

I wanted to share with you the article published today in the Times. Professor Levit a Nobel prize winner no less, and a mathematical genius has estimated after looking at the numbers that this pandemic will be short, and can be controlled. If we observe the restrictions now we can expect it to be over quickly.

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/pandemic-can-be-controlled-says-scientist-michael-levitt-bp7qd39lv

The whole world of medicine is working on an antidote, there have been some very encouraging progress, the vaccine is being tested now (after skipping other stages because it is so urgent)

nypost.com/2020/03/18/japanese-flu-drug-clearly-effective-in-treating-coronavirus-officials-say/

There is every reason to believe that this is not going to be the new normal, but a short blip until we are able to get find a solution. The world economy is banking on a quick fix, so lets hope it will be with us soon.
WE may change in the process, the country may change in many ways after this, but this is not going to be our lives forever.

We should prepare mentally for a long lockdown, but for those that need at least a flicker of hope that we will be peaking soon, and back on the downward trajectory and back to some sort of normal, there is science behind that as well. Look at HK, China and S.Korea.

Pandemics may become regular, or this may never happen again, but the sun is shining this morning and we are all well enough to post on here.

gosh that is surprising about Sweden!

@Iknewyouwerewaitingforme

Love hearing things like this. Gives me a bit of hope

My first foray to the supermarkets for a while and they're all queueing - everybody neat and orderly, nobody kicking off. Shopping takes quite a bit longer now but I do like the way the British queue... we do it better than anybody.

Thanks to all the posters for giving updates, they're really positive and certainly help offset the doldrums.

Great thread. Shameless placemarking.

good to hear about proper queueing making a comeback.

queuing? queueing?
I'm going to say queuing.

It was really quite serene, thereisfreedomwithin. Everybody waiting patiently, quietly, giving more than the required space and politely thanking the 'doorman' who was also being very civil.

Inside the shop itself, no pushing, shoving, piling of trolleys (that I could see) and almost a dance going on where you're oncoming with another trolley pusher, sort of an 'excuse me', with one veering left and one to the right.

I will miss that actually if and when things return to normal.

Just musing but it seems to me that the more restrictions and definite instructions that are physically placed on people, the more they seem to like it and more importantly - comply.

We must be a bit like dogs... need firm words - and a walk each day!

iknew Thank you for all of your contributions. Every one of them is valued by all of us.
It is great news about China, and our friends tell us that they have been working for nearly four weeks now, and as yet no second wave. As the weeks pass we can be quietly confident that a strong lockdown, and then a gradual, careful lifting of restrictions really seems to work.

So good news for today: The UK now is on track to reduce the numbers of people dying from 200/260,000 (the predicted number with the herd immunity) to 5k. That is still too many precious lives lost, but it seems the restrictions ARE actually working, they are saving lives, and they are ensuring that those battling to live, and those caring for them (our wonderful NHS) now have a fighting chance of beating this on every ward, in every hospital. We are now on course for a lower trajectory than Italy.

The curve is being gently flattened as we have all pulled together in staying at home.

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/nhs-now-likely-to-cope-with-coronavirus-says-key-scientist-rn5m6nggk

We will continue to look for the light, and hearing the update from lyin about the respectful conditions in the supermarkets, I found the same is true on the roads, people are being extra courteous, and extra careful.

We only have a few weeks to get through during the peak, what changes have you made for the better?

And definitely the dogs of this country seem to be enjoying the outbreak more than most. All the extra walkies, company and treats. If there is a silver lining it will be reserved especially for the dogs of this country.

There have only been 3 deaths today in China on worldometer. The lowest number in over one week. I hope that means there will be light at the end of the tunnel for us

Also from The Times today:

"Britain is on course for an estimated 5,700 deaths from coronavirus, far lower than originally predicted, experts believe. The country will avoid the 260,000 fatalities once feared if it keeps on the same path seen in China, statisticians at Imperial College London have calculated. They emphasised that this did not imply that the fears of mass deaths were alarmist, but that the government strategy was working. “Our work shows that social distancing is working against Covid-19 as an effective parachute across multiple countries,” Tom Pike, of Imperial College, said. “That’s no reason for us to cut away our parachutes when we’re still way above the ground.”

Although estimates of deaths are never a reason to be positive, it is encouraging to know that the current measures already seem to be having an impact.

Keep going, everyone.

That’s good to read Teds and yes keep going with SD.

Needed this.

That is really positive news, Teds, I hope that people will start seeing that social distancing really does work - and keep it up!

There is a news release in France today about how Italy's recovered are freeing up beds, which is really, really positive. This is not to say it is all over, as we still don't know the situation in France or UK for sure yet, but I really do feel that if we can keep at it for a number of weeks, not months, we will see positives.

I would like to see more being done to get the message through to teenagers and the parents such as those organising playdates referring to on here etc though. On the basis that we are not talking months, which is what is hoped. A 16 year old died in Paris, no other health problems, but very sociable. Really don't want to see that becoming a pattern.

The hope from this is really good as it give people a sense of control - that if we do our part in the short term, it will pay off.

This is the positive thread

Forgive my minor rant Pewter. You are quite right.

I've asked for iii to be removed.

I didn't mean my teenager comment to be not positive - sorry - I had just seen a teenager being dropped off by another teenager to get into another car of a teenager and snog the occupant... and then both cars sped off...(!!) And I probably would have been the same at that age.

The news from Italy was very positive so fingers crossed for the week ahead. It would be great to keep this thread going with positive stories.

@SchadenfreudePersonified very civil of you😊

I had just seen a teenager being dropped off by another teenager to get into another car of a teenager and snog the occupant...

Funnily enough, I had an eight feet apart conversation with a lady while dog-walking this morning, and we both thought that worse than being trapped indoors with young children would be being trapped indoors with a teenager who was in lurrrrvvve.

THE HORROR!

and Pewter - not at all. it was thoughtless of me.

trapped indoors with a teenager who was in lurrrrvvve.

It's bad enough even when you are NOT trapped indoors. All that door slamming and moodiness.