Do you think the situation in the UK is going to end up being worse than Italy's?

[fucknotmeplease]

Watching what is happening in Italy is so terrifying, it's a living nightmare and such a tragedy for all of them.

If the situation in the UK is still a couple of weeks behind, do you think our infection rate and death toll is going to be much higher than theirs?

The situation in Italy is very geographically concentrated in Lombardy, there is still lots of hospital capacity in other regions with patients from the north being airlifted elsewhere and medics being sent to the worst affected spots. It has also unfolded in the region with probably the best healthcare system in the country (and highly ranked internationally), with higher capacity than the national average.

I think a lot will depend on if and where hotspots form or whether the spread is more uniform.

The rural area where I am is relatively COVID free, however over the past week we have seen swarms of tourists crowding our little villages. They're everywhere. Our supermarkets can't cope, and our hospitals certainly won't. There are 10 ICU beds in our local hospital which serves 3 counties. Last night I heard from a friend who works there that 2 are occupied. So we have 8.

It will almost certainly be worse than Italy.

Italy had its first case one month ago today.
And we still didn't realize it was a juggernaut coming.

Italy had its first case one month ago today.
And we still didn't realize it was a juggernaut coming.

Italy had its first confirmed case around the same time the UK did (31st of January in York)

21st February.

"The first cases of COVID-19 in Italy during the 2019–20 worldwide pandemic were confirmed on 31 January 2020, when two Chinese tourists in Rome tested positive for the virus.[2] One week later an Italian man repatriated back to Italy from the city of Wuhan, China, was hospitalised and confirmed as the third case in Italy.[3]..."

Those cases were successfully contained and are not the source of the current outbreak in Italy.

Makes no difference if they were contained or not. They are the official first confirmed cases in Italy.

I remember this because I had a conversation at the time with an Italian friend. We are both interested in history.

The conversation was that both our countries had their first confirmed cases in ancient cities at around the same time. Rome and York

@Dongdingdong . In China you could see a small difference in the data one week after lockdown, and a larger change after two weeks. The number of cases was still growing, but not exponentially any more. The deaths per day peaked 3 weeks after the lockdown started. Then they gradually decreased for about 3 weeks.

Italy locked down on 8th march, nearly 2 weeks ago. I personally think we can see a small change in the growth rate at the moment, but I haven’t analysed it, just looking at the graphs.

If you want to see the data yourself go to worldometer , click on the country, and look at the plots on log mode, or deaths-per-day is easier to understand. Or if you look at deaths per day, then if it’s increasing steadily that is an early sign of slowdown. If it’s getting steeper then it’s out of control.

No, only Lombardia locked down on the 8th. The rest of Italy 2 days later.

You can’t teally compare China given 98% of cases were in one province and the entire area was locked down with images showing street blocks etc and very strict procedures

Our will be worse not only because it’s an entire country but also because our essential workers list is so vast that vast numbers of the country will still be going to work etc on a lockdown - a full lockdown here won’t really be a lockdown let’s face it as even their children will still be going to school on a full lockdown