Do you think the situation in the UK is going to end up being worse than Italy's?

[fucknotmeplease]

Watching what is happening in Italy is so terrifying, it's a living nightmare and such a tragedy for all of them.

If the situation in the UK is still a couple of weeks behind, do you think our infection rate and death toll is going to be much higher than theirs?

Given where the virus now is there is no way we will be the worst effected

or do you mean in Europe?

buccanarab don't forget that we have to date only been testing people who have been ill enough to be admitted to hospital for their symptoms so our reported confirmed cases numbers are much lower than the actual number infected in our country. Also frontline nhs staff and they are refusing to fit test me at the moment-fit masks are being saved for those involved in aerosol procedures - intubation/extubation etc. The rest of us have to make do with basic masks,gloves and plastic aprons...

Yes, I work with someone who took herself out of work claiming to be vulnerable, tonight they are in the pub! I have genuine health issues, haven't stepped foot out the door for 2 weeks. You couldn't make it up!

@LeeMiller you do realise it spreads and can be carried by some without symptoms! Just because a German and Italian got it first, doesn't mean it wasn't brought in directly from Wuhan! China has sent 30+ tonnes of medical equipment to Lombardy, nowhere else, just where there is a massive Chinese community.

Germany is doing extensive testing even on younger people or with mild symptoms so it makes sense that more people seem to be surviving. Here you have to be pretty sick to be admitted/tested I understand

I am in France. The health care services are only dealing with emergency cases under strict conditions, so,

My friend who went into labour two days ago had to go into hospital alone. The father has not yet seen the baby.

My friend’s husband who has just been diagnosed with prostate cancer has had his appointment with the surgeon moved to the 28th April.

My asthmatic DS 5yo has been coughing for 9 days and can only get advice over the phone.

I don’t think British people are quite grasping what is happening. Army field hospitals are being set up to deal with the sick and this is in a country that’s already on lockdown. Everything that can be postponed has been postponed.

I said a week ago that we should have shut down. My worst case figures were 150 deaths by Friday and this would mean ICU capacity in 2 weeks. We have 177 deaths today meaning an even greater number were infected so the surge is going to be bigger and longer. Very depressing. This is going to be awful. The sheer numbers.

Venus, I think you'll find Lee knows quite a bit about the situation in Italy.
The German who was Italy's patient 0 did indeed have contact with a Chinese trade delegation (in Italy) but it took a while to find him because he wasn't in Italy when the perfect storm blew. He'd gone back to Germany. Patient 1 was showing fit superspreader.

Yes, it may well be worse. I think the media should show as much footage of the Italian crisis as possible, and repeatedly state that what they are going through now is very likely to happen in the UK, if the ignorant minority don't follow advice about social distancing measures.

We live in a democracy, so our govt took a softly softly approach, hoping that the public would be sensible and careful. Sadly, although many people followed the advice, others buried their heads in the sand. Whatever measures have been taken have probably saved many lives, but there's no doubt our NHS will soon be at the crunch point where they will no longer be able to hospitalise anyone but the most serious cases. We all have to do the maximum we can to keep ourselves and our loved ones out of harm's way, but it's going to get very tough, whatever we do. Stay safe everyone, spring is here, try to enjoy the sunshine when it comes (but keep a safe distance from others).

The Chinese have indeed sent equipment to Lombardia.
They've also sent tonnes of masks to other parts of Italy.

I do worry it will be and have done for a few weeks. Hence posting loads re social distancing.

They're not building 'pop up' mortuaries across the country for shits and giggles.

@VenusTiger of course it originally came from China. But the evidence is that it didn't come via the Chinese community around Milan, as you suggested, they traced the cases back. Chinese Italians were getting threatened and abused, that's why it's important not to spread misinformation about an ethnic group/ community unless you have supporting evidence.

It's no secret that UK has only been testing those Ill enough to be admitted to hospital

Thanks and buona sera @TheCanterburyWhales

There is currently a team of doctors from the Chinese Red Cross in Milan looking at what's happening and advising what can be done better. Tighten the social distancing rules, basically. They are apparently horrified at the number of people still out and about - the vast majority of whom are going to work.

I’m afraid that the CCP Politburo is just a lot better at planning and implementing major projects

Well it’s hard for the Chinese government to plan anything when they get poor information from local officials ... as happened in Wuhan.

Why would we not?

Loads of people still working here in London in non emergency roles etc

Tubes pared back but running

People in cafes pubs etc today

Could be London will be different to rest of UK

Still millions of people though

480 some of us on this thread live in Italy now AND understand the science.

Thankfully a lot of people in the UK are now realising what's coming their way and are taking the correct precautions.

None of us took this seriously in January. In the south of Italy we didn't take it seriously till about 18 days ago.

Unless the science is wrong (which doesn't seem likely) then the UK is scientifically 14 days behind Italy though that gap has been slightly closing over the last 48 hours.

I'm sorry. But it's true.

This thread is really really not scaremongering. Have a read of the actual scientists model and see their predictions of death ... You think it's scaremongering because you cannot grasp the enormity of what we are facing. We are looking at multiple strict lockdowns throughout the year to flatten the curve. Not one, but many.
Field hospitals in car parks. The death of many many HCPs and lack of health care for anything else for months. Wake up ffs

Here's the data from the scientists. Look at how low the line for NHS capacity is and tell me how it's going to cope

www.imperial.ac.uk/news/196234/covid19-imperial-researchers-model-likely-impact/

This is scaremongering?

Have a look at Italy.

That will be us. The government has been utterly shit over this. British people are sticking their heads in the sand.

What do you think is going to happen? Why would we be any different to Italy when our numbers match theirs from 2 weeks ago?

It’s been awful seeing so many act like one big holiday cafes, pubs etc knowing this is coming. But you can say it over and over and people still do exactly as they please.

It depends where our infections are. The crude numbers don't equate to deaths. Who is getting infected is key. Italy had lots of older people. South Korea it was younger people. It's not a given. Just got to hope that ours is more like the latter. And it could be.