Do you think the situation in the UK is going to end up being worse than Italy's?

[fucknotmeplease]

Watching what is happening in Italy is so terrifying, it's a living nightmare and such a tragedy for all of them.

If the situation in the UK is still a couple of weeks behind, do you think our infection rate and death toll is going to be much higher than theirs?

Thank you to all of you intelligent posters who inform where the media fails to alert the people in pubs. I gave up drinking (forever) in January and I know I could have been one of 'them' uninformed and head in the sand. But instead I have been following this thread with interest tonight and others along the way.

I popped to get a Savoy cabbage in the greengrocers this afternoon for a pussy nipple gland.

A toddler was staring at me - I had a discreet mask under a cycling scarf. Dad says
"Stop staring love, I know she's got a mask on. Don't ask why".

I'll just leave that little nugget here...

South Korea had already shown that testing and tracking works

Yet Japan does neither and a very old population and has not had major problems either. Fact is we just don’t know why it explodes in some places and not in others

I live in Italy and I CANNOT stress enough that this thing needs to be taken seriously!!! As contained and organized as things may seem here now, we underestimated the severity, acted stupidly and waited way too long to do something, that's why we find ourselves in the current situation now.. Please, even if your government are being reckless and slow, it is up to YOU individuals to self isolate, stay off the streets, and protect yourselves and your neighbors...

we underestimated the severity, acted stupidly and waited way too long to do something, that's why we find ourselves in the current situation now.

In 2 weeks time there will be people in the UK writing statements very similar to this one. I'm deeply sorry for those who will lose their lives and people they love. However it's not scaremongering to say we will look back on this and wish we had heeded the warnings.

No one is taking it serious in our town either.

The high street is less busy but the coffee shops are full, groups of teenagers hanging about in town and in the park as I drove through.

I am getting increasingly scared

It really doesn't matter how many ventilators we have.

Wtf are you talking about... ventilators are required to keep a small, but not insignificant, proportion of those with CV alive. Are we just to give up on people and let them die if they get CV badly?

Derby I’m pretty sure the pp meant we should have them but also need the critical care HCP and beds to use them otherwise it’s not enough.

So the ventilators aren't saving lives.....it takes about 18 days to die of this thing. Those 4,000 deaths Italy has today those equivelent people in the UK are either already infected or about to be infected this weekend.

Please, please stay in. We have a tiny tiny window to prevent all those deaths (most will be in London and home Counties) :(

Wtf are you talking about... ventilators are required to keep a small, but not insignificant, proportion of those with CV alive. Are we just to give up on people and let them die if they get CV badly?

Yes unfortunately this will happen the question is to what extent

the different family generations in the UK are more likely to live separately.
Yes, but if they're all out in pubs, parks, shops and cafés together, that difference becomes less relevant.

*My worry is that people will be treated who don't have as much chance to survive and that we need to focus on having capacity on younger people if they get it, or God forbid kids and babies.

WTAF* aren't you delightful, if I get it I don't stand much chance of survival along with three members of my family. Our frailties are not lifestyle related and we all work hard to stay as healthy as possible and could live long fruitful lives. We have been self isolating for weeks while the rest of you have been carrying on as normal. But you would rather we weren't given a chance to survive.

As contained and organized as things may seem here now

I don’t mean to be negative, but as an outsider looking in, sadly things don’t look especially contained and organised in Italy to me. But it’s just my impression and perhaps I’m wrong?

Interesting stats from @Barracker there - so we’re exactly two weeks behind the Italians. It’ll be interesting to see if any divergence begins now we’re effectively in lockdown.

When did the Italian nationwide lockdown begin and when can we expect to see new cases levelling out as a result? If they don’t start to level out two weeks after lockdown then who knows what the heck is going on...

Yes, that's what's expected. Peak contagion around end of next week taking into account the timing of lockdown and incubation period being anything from 7-20 days.

No

Italy has a much older population - at least 14 years on average than say the USA. It's well known they have the second old population next to only japan.

incubation period being anything from 7-20 days.

20 days? I thought it was 14 max.

It’ll be interesting to see whether new cases level out in Italy at the end of next week then. I’m looking to Italy as I don’t think the Chinese government’s figures are to be trusted unfortunately, given this:

www.ft.com/content/fa83463a-4737-11ea-aeb3-955839e06441

Obviously death figures will rise for some weeks after peak contagion. That's what the government is saying anyway. The reason it's longer than 14 days is that of course there are people infected with no symptoms, who will be part of that one-per-household figure allowed out each day to food shop.

Italians has the second oldest X capita population, but also one of the healthiest (or they wouldn't live that long obviously!)

Yes. However all the fucking idiots who aren't taking it seriously won't be affected anyway as they'll just get ill for a few days or are completely asymptomatic (40% by latest research). They'll be celebrating "surviving Corona" in 6 months time, unaware of the fact that they killed scores of vulnerable people and heroic medical staff who will be infected when protective supplies run out.

I posted last week in a thread saying "why should we panic" where people were genuinely puzzled, giving a warning from Central Europe. Now shit is really starting to hit the fan, including the economic fallout for many, and it's only going to get worse. This is not spreading panic, this is reality.

@Dongdingdong I think a study in China found up to 27 days?

My concern is also for those patients without corona..the equally critically ill ones with sepsis, respiratory failure, post cardiac arrest, post major emergency surgery, AKI requiring dialysis. These patients are still presenting too on top of the ones with corona. Medics are going to have have some horrendous decisions to make - ventilate a 50 year old with corona or a 75 year old post cardiac arrest, patients may be transferred out of critical care sooner than desirable, and there will be some incredibly angry relatives.....

Its probably to early but is there any theory why quite a high % get mild symptoms or none at all?

Unfortunately yes, last night there were hoards of children in the supermarket buying fizzy drinks and sweets then wandering the streets in groups. Neither they nor their parents seem to give a toss about the current situation. A local restaurant decided to have a party night with a live band before closing at midnight. The only thing that will stop these idiots is a lockdown supported by the police/army.

Absolutely. We dithered. Nudged. Hoped. And our health service has been fucked over. We wasted what time we had to prepare.

@Gfplux ... precisely how I feel .
Drip drip approach will ultimately lead to many more deaths as the nation is late to wake up to this horrific situation..
keep well and stay safe xx

I read yesterday that the average ITU stay is 4-5 days, but with covid-19 they need at least double that.

Patients in Italy have come off ventilators but it is seemingly a very slow recovery process. Patient 1, Mattia was in intensive care from 21 Feb - 9 March (recovered prior to this but I'm not sure of the date), since when he's been in semi-ICU and is now waiting to be discharged. That is a long hospital stay for someone young and fit (there are suggestions his intense fitness activity weakened his immne response, but you'd expect it to aid his recovery).

Yes we will be worse than Italy. Inferior health system, less beds, less icu beds.
Massive dithering and delaying from bojo. He is still delaying.

It's a disaster.