Worried about Coronavirus - thread 31

[Jenasaurus]

New thread

Just looked though and BA are stopping flights as of march 26, which means our flight is still going ahead. God I hope that doesn't change, otherwise they don't have anything for a month and I'll be too pregnant to fly, and my travel insurance doesn't cover for pregnancy past 34 weeks.

In your shoes (without cover after 34 weeks), I’d be sucking up the 4x air fare now - even if you leave your husband behind to follow on a later flight. Uninsured overseas medical treatment or repatriation could bankrupt you. Are you willing to stake your home (and health/life) on your later flights actually running? There’s a reason why the prices have jumped - others can see the writing on the wall & are jumping ship asap.

From that guardian article

On Saturday it was announced there were 56 new UK deaths, triggering fears that hospitals could run out of intensive care beds in weeks. Already, London hospitals are struggling to cope as staff are forced to self-isolate. One teaching hospital in the capital has 300 absent staff, the Observer understands.

And

Larger, urban hospitals have been turning specialist wards into intensive care units to deal with the crisis, but rural hospitals have relatively few ICU beds but a more elderly population, Walsh warned. Models suggest London needs a 130% rise in critical care capacity. “But in rural locations it would have to increase by 600%. You can imagine that’s difficult if not impossible to achieve. Which means patients being transferred to urban centres, which brings new challenges.”

The latter has been my concern was the case for a while.

selfisolatingsince2007

Go Now.

This isn't going to get better in the next week in the UK.

Yes and it’s why a London only lockdown seems pointless it has to be nationwide to stop people moving

Sending prayers, hope and virtual hugs to all tonight.

I'm locking down my family. School is closed, my college is closed, there is no need for me to venture out for quite some time so I'm not going to. I can't trust that other people are sticking to the rules so I'll do my bit for myself and my family and for my community.

I hope you all manage to sleep peacefully tonight brandy/whisky/whatever laced hot chocolate

Petiolaris that is a v scary article.

That guardian article. Is it assuming everywhere will have the same high rate of cases as London or has it taken into account that, before things get that bad elsewhere, the government might do what it failed to do for London - act to protect people by implementing a lockdown? Have they also included in their assessment of care capacity needs (across the country) all the younger people with underlying conditions. The report only mentions the elderly.

Independent

Times

Mail

Telegraph

Telegraph

Stay home alone if you're at risk. What happens for the many people who don't live alone? Does the at risk household member stay somewhere else? Perhaps holiday parks or the closed hotels could accommodate those who need to self isolate. A few minibuses or coaches could take them so no-one has to use public transport and avoids putting themselves or others at risk. If several household members are at risk it would be better the non high risk person to temporarily leave.

Terrible about the food banks but with so many who use them likely to be in high risks groups now would be the time to give money directly to individuals. Or an arrangement with supermarkets to do a food bank parcel delivery to those in need.

I'm reading everyone's thoughts here with interest. Thank you.

Just a couple of questions ...

Surely the government didn't think that shutting pubs, gyms, restaurants etc on Friday night (was it? I can't remember now) was going to have the effect of a lock down - or really work ...

We went for our usual walk today, thinking no one would be about, as usual. But the place was rammed with groups of people, drinking beer (never seen that before).

Firstly - of course that was going to happen. Even Boris said we were still allowed to have take outs. And there's no where for people to go now - except for outdoor places. And just before anyone jumps on me.

Where we live, and I imagine in most cities, people live in flats with no outdoor space. There are going to be riots if there is a lockdown. What is going to happen to people's mental health? What about kids shut in single rooms with large families (that's what it's like round here).

No -one on MN is taking this into consideration. I imagine MNetters must be very middle class. Noone on MN can imagine what it is like to be stuffed into tiny tiny homes with no outdoor space.

Lockdown won't work in this part of London. Not for very long at all. Maybe a week. Trust me - there will be riots.

I see the point of doing it. I get why it should be done. But I really don't believe it will work. Not here anyway.

it's like trapped in a box with the virus hanging in the close anyway. I've avoided going out for a week or so. It's horrible

big country hotels need to close. get all staff tested. Move all vulnerable people who do not need care into them (afetr they are tested clear too) many of whom may still be working from home so could work from hotel. Government pays the staff the 80% wage thing to keep hotel running and isolate these high risk people away from the rest of the population.
only bring in tinned or dried food and sterilise it all on arrival

keep everyone away from it. Id send my daughter and my partner there tomorrow if that could be done. And my 70s parents who are fit and healthy

That Daily Mail article has made me sick to my stomach. My 19 year old is super high risk.

This is an interesting thread and I wonder if the reason other countries haven't had such problems could be because their supermarkets are so heavily invested and dependent on just in time and people don't eat out as much. The combination of the two in the UK is enough to make the difference? This is certainly thought provoking

Greg Callus @greg_callus
I strongly suspect there isn't actually much panic buying or hoarding in the way we imagine. Supermarkets in the UK took £193.4bn in revenue in 2019, which is £3.7bn/week. £1bn extra has been added over 3 weeks: approx 10% rise per week for 3 weeks. That's small, give that...

Huge swathes of the population who were eating 1 (or even 2 or 3) meals out (cafe breakfast, Pret lunch, work dinner) are now home-working so eating at home & many kids aren't getting school meals. Inexperienced cooks, new to it, invariably buy too much (quantity & variety).

Then remember people are being encouraged to social distance, so they want to minimise shopping trips, so will get durables just in case (batteries, candles and - yes - toilet rolls). So the increase in purchasing is very modest, explicable, even justified. So why empty shelves?

UK Supermarkets are masterful: cheap goods at low margin in huge bulk, with highly sophisticated FMCG just-in-time supply chains. If you operate a Tesco Metro in Central London, you don't (a) carry excess stock (just exactly right amount based on models): wasted working capital

(b) rent very expensive premises with larger stock rooms than you need when stock-minimisation & just-in-time replenishment is part of the financial model that makes it profitable at all. That entire model for all supermarkets is based on predicable and modelled seasonal demand.

Remember all the Brexit/No Deal/Just-in-Time supply chain we talked about? How even slight shifts in the chain could cause massive chaos & shortages? This is it. A modest 10% uplift in demand makes it seem like locusts have hit all supermarkets (even though there's no shortage).

So this isn't anti-social idiots stockpiling canned goods: it's every household adding £5 or £6 to its weekly shop. It's happening to a highly-calibrated supply chain that can replenish daily – because there is no shortage – but just can't keep the shelves full during the day.

I'm sure there are some people genuinely hoarding/stockpiling, even hoping to sell-on some goods at a profit, but they aren't the major factor. Don't think most of your fellow citizens are monsters. This is happening in the UK, but not abroad, b/c of supply chain "efficiency".

That won't change, at least not quickly. Supermarket-imposed rationing sensible, but won't actually change much. Need to have (1) priority hours (first thing) for NHS staff (2) reserved stock for elderly; (3) get trucks & migrate people to online shopping (direct from warehouse)

Also important to remember symbiotic relationship with eat-out cafes. Pret a Manger has said it is closing its 400 cafes from this evening. Where are those located? In the city centres where supermarket's food storage capacity (inc refridgerated/frozen storage) is most-limited.

Supermarkets are facing opportunity loss where no stock to sell: if (for example) they were to rent empty Pret storage for middle-of-the-day refreshers of stock in city centre supermarkets & increase small van capacity, they could sell what they already hold in out of town DCs.

We've been isolated as a family for a week now. Nearly 9 days.

But we can't avoid leaving the house for shopping. We have a vulnerable child to protect.

We'll get it anyway - just from shopping. I'm sure.

There won’t be riots in the same way there weren’t in Europe. And if anyone is stupid enough to do so the police and army probably will step in.

Also European cities have a far higher number of flats without gardens. They are on lock down, people comply.

OK - so hopefully there won't be riots.

But seriously - what is going to happen to people's mental health? That is a worry. It is something to be taken into consideration.

I actually can't imagine how tough it must be to be in a small flat with kids running around.

I live in a small flat with no kids and it's already tough, me and my husband basically just sit in the same room all day on laptops now! I've always loved living in a small flat for the money-saving aspect, but normally we'd be in the office and then evening classes/sport. I actually hate WFH, I get nothing done because no-one is looking at my screen. Though my company's basically had all it's business disappear so there's no work to do anyway. 12 weeks of this will be hard.

Nelly I know I think it’s a hugely worrying factor. There’s no answer and I hope that all people look after their dc.

And that probably was taken into consideration. Well maybe given this govt.

We live in a flat with no outside space. I hope we have a lockdown like the countries where you can go for brief walks (albeit on your own). I'm aware some places don't allow that and I'm resigned to it. I worried about riots too but those stuck in poor quality housing are less likely to be in good health. Because of their inadequate living conditions. They will fear for their lives and for their families. They know they're at higher risk than the affluent. They know they'll be the ones struggling to get medical care at over capacity hospitals. There's very deprived flat dwelling areas in Paris (and other European cities) and I don't think their lockdown has caused riots? I think riots are more likely if and when people lose their loved ones in great numbers. I hope I'm wrong.

Yes - we live in a tiny space and spend more time out than in - in parks, swimming, going for walks in open spaces nearby. That's how you survive in a city.

All these people calling for lockdown, living in houses with gardens have no idea.

I have a vulnerable child, but I'd rather risk us getting it than be locked up for 12 weeks. My child is vulnerable but still active as is her brother. They are bouncing off the walls at the moment and have had accidents that luckily have not ended them in hospital yet ... This is unsustainable. I can cope with another week - but not more.

I hope that all people look after their dc.

I've been snapping and shouting far more than usual. This is going to tip some people over the edge. DH said today - murder rates and suicides are going to go up for sure.