Beth Rigby @bethrigby
We were expecting closure of bars/restaurants/gyms in London, but entire country? A bit of a surprise.
What drove the decision? Understand it was combo of pace of disease, mixed evidence around compliance with massage of cutting social contact and need for clarity. #Covid_19
Peter Birks @peterjbirks
1/2 I think what drove the decision was the (unspoken) awareness of the likely level of infection penetration today. Two weeks ago, infections recorded were 169. Today, 177 people are dead. That doesn't match. So, infection rate much higher two weeks ago than recorded.
2/2 But by how much? Well, if mortality rate is 1%, it likely means a massive level of under-recognition, with some 17,500 infected two weeks ago, and more than 200,000 infected today. That implies 2,000 total deaths within two weeks, and still increasing exponentially every day