Low death rate in Germany

[Malteserdiet]

Germany is traditionally known as a nation that follows rules and runs a very efficient system. Italy, France, Spain and the UK less so - although of course all have their own positive merits.

Could this be a factor as to why they so far have a relatively low death rate? As of last night, Germany had over 9000 cases and 24 deaths. The UK has just over 2000 confirmed cases and yet already 71 deaths.

Perhaps we all need to take heed of the German people’s willingness to listen to and follow their government’s advice and do the same here to help reduce the impact of this virus.

If this is indeed a correct assessment of what’s going on then I would urge Boris to make this connection in his next speech to the UK public and hope that we can achieve the same.

@Dramadrama “ Germany doesn’t always attribute deaths to CV in patients with other serious/life-limiting illnesses.”

Do you have a source for this as it wold be interesting reading.

How do we know that the UK is also correctly reporting deaths given the lack of testing?

Ooh where are you @Tootletum I am also down here!

I just messaged a friend in Germany who agreed with pp that its not that easy to get tested in Germany either. Her husband has a bad cough at the moment but won't be tested as he hasn't travelled & isn't aware of any contact with anyone known to have the virus. Also schools have only just shut so not miles ahead of us with that.

What would be interesting would be to know how many people countries test each day and their % of positive results.

The number of tests is the crucial factor I think, from what I am ready Germany are performing many more so they are catching the low level cases which we are not.

How do we know that the UK is also correctly reporting deaths given the lack of testing?

The BBC reported on Monday that 44,000 tests had already been carried out in the UK.

Er, the uk NHS is NOT free.
We are all paying for it.

And getting little return for that pleasure.
Anyone who hasn’t noticed it’s planned decline over the past few decades is either mightily privileged or else in denial.

Germany have posted 9 new deaths for yesterday. They may just be slightly behind - I really hope not it would be good to think one country was more on top of this.

sorry that was the day before's figure, I'm getting lost in numbers.

South Korea are the country that does seem to have control now..

It's not that Germany possibly isn't reporting 'correctly'-- if someone with end-stage cancer or heart failure dies with coronavirus, it's not the same as an otherwise healthy 40-something dying of CV, is it? But what's legally required on the death certificate might vary from country to country.

@monkeywrench I am in UK now but was from Eberbach (Neckar).

In the UK we have over 60,000 cases at latest estimate, and I'd Hazzard a guess it's way more than that. We are not testing anyone but the most severe at the moment (pretty sure I have it for example, but I'm definitely not included in the '2000' figures estimate

ravenmum our playgrounds are all closed even though we're in the middle of nowhere, a village of 200 people 5 miles from the nearest shop or bus stop and there aren't enough children to crowd a playground.

Went for a walk with the children - we were out an hour and saw maybe 4 children and two adults in their own gardens, 3 cars driving and two adults cycling. That's not atypical of a Wednesday in term time here but there are no extra people out. Closing little sparcely used fairly remote village playgrounds seems like overkill tbh.

As others have stated, actual UK cases could now even be approaching 100,000.
Ireland is expecting 15,000 cases by the end of the month. (of course still missing many, but not nearly as many as the UK as their advice and testing is far more organised).
UK actual cases by end of the month could be 200,000-300,000.

But so could the rest of each european country.

We aren't on our own here.

Many people asymptomatic, wont know they have the virus, at least we have a free health service. My son has a friend in America, and millions cannot afford the insurance for the health care. Its no exageration, you wont get treated there. My late Aunt went to Los Vagas on Holiday, had insurance, passed out, was taken to the Hospital, they wouldnt allow her in, said the bill had to be paid and they could then claim on their insurance. My Late uncle didnt have a credit card, rang my cousin in the middle of the night who ad to pay with his.

Its very odd. Netherlands has 43 deaths in a population of 17 million, Germany has 26 in a population in 82 million. I'm not aware of any deficiencies in the Dutch health system.

"Germany doesn’t always attribute deaths to CV in patients with other serious/life-limiting illnesses."

as it should be - i know someone who's 80 and is alive by the skin of their teeth at the mo with many underlying issues. Already on borrowed time but could get CV and die tomorrow . If the death is recorded as covid-19 it would make a complete mockery of the data.

@Ptgh That's interesting. I wondered all along why Germany's mortality rate was so low, although if they are attributing cause of death to underlying conditions rather than CV it all goes out of the window.

As George Monbiot wrote in his article today, its interesting to note the political and cultural similarities between the UK/US/Australia and the similarities in their responses - how they have lagged behind most other countries in their overall response in terms of closures and testing (not to mention their shit awful public communication)

In Germany.

I definitely think more people are being tested. It isn't a case of rock up and get a test just because you feel like it, but as far as I am aware you'd access a test if you had valid concerns.

I also very much agree with anothernotherone: 'Germans are also vastly more likely to seek medical help if ill.' Very, very different culture from the British 'don't even think about wasting an NHS appointment unless both arms and both legs are falling off'. Most employees require a doctor's note from the third day of being off sick at the latest, so there are more and earlier contacts with medical services there too.

And yes to a well-rexourced health system. I work for myself and pay approx 16% of my taxable income in statutory health insurance. Employees pay half of that directly from their gross salary, the employer covers the other half. It is a huge expense, but the result is becoming evident now. (Unemployed people and those on benefits get their insurance covered by the state).

@paddlingwhenIshouldbeworking
It really just needs one incident of the virus getting in somewhere it shouldn't, ie a home for old people. Of course there are macro-factors at play, too. But some it can also just be bad luck/random chance. We'll have to wait months to see which countries really performed most poorly.

I'm in the area (the actual town) with the highest rate of infections/deaths in Germany (so much so that people's cars are being vandalised in some places if they venture out of the area).

I've been here for a loooong time and can offer this: they are not testing more (I was in China just before Christmas and Milan just before it went into lockdown - took my adult DD to the doc last Monday with coughing and really high temperature. Not tested even knowing the background, where we are etc. He did a thorough check up though. She has a chesty cough so not Corona anyway).

Germans are hypochondriacs. They deny it but they are. They have a lot of specialist doctors and it's relatively easy to get a referral if needed.
They are also very judgy of people who come to work sick, and will often either directly send them home or guilt them into going home in a PA way. You can only self-certify for 2 days - for 3 days and over you need a doctor's note. Most people who have a regular contract have good sick-pay coverage (IIRC up to 6 weeks on full pay). It could be different for some groups of employees.

Health insurance is expensive but it works. Having said that it is underfunded and although there are a lot of ICU beds some are not available because of staffing levels.

I don't believe the numbers in any country, and am highly suspicious of the Netherlands reporting such a low level. The reason there is a high concentration where i live is directly down to one individual who was infected (unknowingly) and went to a lot of Karneval events. The municipality borders the Netherlands - and to all intents and purposes for daily life isn't even there. Thousands and thousands of people come from NL to this area for the Karneval and I can imagine that many many of them were at the event that our own "patient zero" was at.

Also: what PP said. My local fb group is full of people saying "I'll go out if i want" and now it looks as though the first measures taken will be tightened (but already pubs and non-essential businesses - like jewellery shops) are closed. The schools in this area have been closed for 4 weeks already. Many are WFH.

There has been some panic buying - but since it broke out here 3 weeks before the rest of Germany sat up and took notice, it's settled down a lot

Lots of interesting points and I suppose that ultimately all of these figures rely on a country’s published data and data can be presented and then interpreted in any number of ways.
That said, I do hope that any countries struggling to contain the virus can take ideas and strategies from those countries who appear to be more in control, the UK included.

For people interested in country by country breakdowns there are up to date statistics represented in various ways including lists, graphs and and maps here:

www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/geographical-distribution-2019-ncov-cases