Low death rate in Germany

[Malteserdiet]

Germany is traditionally known as a nation that follows rules and runs a very efficient system. Italy, France, Spain and the UK less so - although of course all have their own positive merits.

Could this be a factor as to why they so far have a relatively low death rate? As of last night, Germany had over 9000 cases and 24 deaths. The UK has just over 2000 confirmed cases and yet already 71 deaths.

Perhaps we all need to take heed of the German people’s willingness to listen to and follow their government’s advice and do the same here to help reduce the impact of this virus.

If this is indeed a correct assessment of what’s going on then I would urge Boris to make this connection in his next speech to the UK public and hope that we can achieve the same.

Our numbers are complete bollocks due to lack of testing.

Went out yesterday here in Dresden, the schools have just been shut, it's sunny and so the kids were all out in the playgrounds and walking about on the streets. The women from my running group still wanted to meet up, just without shaking hands. Official things (parkrun) have been cancelled but not everyone is being careful. The old ladies from my block of flats are gathering outside to chat. Supermarkets not as full as usual.

I would say it is more to do with the fact that Germany's cases have come relatively late in the crisis. In China and Italy people were caught unprepared, and there wasn't such an awareness. At this point in the day, when someone has a cough, they are much more likely to stay at home and call their doctor, so cases are being reported.

That alongside the other factors mentioned, but the late start will be a big factor.

Malteserdiet "Perhaps we all need to take heed of the German people’s willingness to listen to and follow their government’s advice and do the same here to help reduce the impact of this virus."

And you know scientifically for a fact this is the reason for the differences in numbers? Any sources? evidence?

Maybe we should also check the diabetes rate , heart disease rate etc between 2 countries?

I heard that it could be due to the very high level of testing done in Germany which would explain low death rate so far, official reported rates of infected in Germany are apparently quite accurate. So the number of infected in France, Spain etc is actually much much higher than the official figures show. If in these countries the official figures would reflect real numbers of infected, then the death rate would be lower too

I don’t think it’s particularly easy to get tested in Germany though - as far as I know you will only be tested if you have symptoms and a known link to either a risk country or a confirmed case.

Maybe we should also check the diabetes rate , heart disease rate etc between 2 countries?
Germany and the UK usually compete every year for the title "Fattest Nation of Europe", if that is any indication...

I know Germany has a reputation for following rules, but look at the UK - people follow school uniform down to the length of their socks or hair, are proud of their queuing ability and how they follow the rules of polite society. I'm afraid Brits are not quite as marvellously free and easy as we think.

The fewer people you test, the higher your apparent mortality rate, because deaths are easy to confirm.

Even if everyone with the virus got tested as soon as they show symptoms, the mortality rate is always about a week behind because it takes an average of 5 days to show the first symptoms and then 3 days for the test results to come through. That is why reduced social interaction and self-isolating as soon as there are slight symptoms are important.

My guess is that Germany have tested a higher proportion of those with mild symptoms than we have, and perhaps done more contact tracing, so their overall figure of the number diagnosed is higher. Quite why they have maintained such low mortality I don't understand. It is possible they have a healthier population overall, or that people with compromised health started taking care to avoid others sooner than we did. Ventilators are not a cure-all. People on ventilators can still succumb to this ghastly illness. There are many possible reasons.

To some extent it is not important to confirm every probable case, as long as those people are out of circulation and not spreading it too others. The social distancing measures should take care of that, but the numbers will continue to rise this week because there are asymptomatic people who caught the virus before Monday's government announcement.

Sorry that should read the mortality rate is a week ahead of the overall numbers diagnosed. Not a week behind.

Agree with others - it's definitely not because of German people being more likely to follow government advice regarding transmission, or you'd see lower numbers of cases.

It must be either more testing or more successful treatment of patients.

Germany's healthcare system may not have been underfunded and cut to the bone for the past three decades.

I thought I had read that Germany are not always attributing deaths to corona where a person has an underlying condition. They are recording the underlying condition instead.

I read that too. So a diabetic 80 year old who died with Covid-19 died because of their diabetes. Which means maybe their fatality numbers are comprised of the victims who had no underlying health conditions?

It is also worth noting that, if the government is indeed continuing to test 4,000 people a day (and working on increasing that) then the vast majority of tests are coming back negative.

[https://www.theeuropean.de/wolfram-weimer/coronavirus-welche-sterberate-ist-zu-erwarten/ The European] of 12.03. puts it down to more frequent testing, and makes an interesting comparison with South Korea, where apparently, the death rate on 12.03 was less than 1%, which is explained as due to the high level of testing.

Initially the data from WHO said Germany had a lower rate of infection amongst the people highest at risk (the over 80s). Then a German doctor mentioned that a lot of that age group were having cause of death attributed to other things.

I'm actually amazed our reported death rate isn't much higher. If we're only testing people who are ill enough to be admitted to hospital, you'd think that means that a higher than average percentage of those people will be so sick that they will go on to die from it.

Just for context on people's view that Germans follow rules: I come from a small town in South Germany, in the most conservative and law abiding part of the country (Schwaben). Their local Facebook page is awash with people who don't see why they shouldn't get a haircut, go shoe shopping, get an ice cream on a sunny day, enjoy the Quellen in the forest where you can get drinking water - you name it, they still want to do it , with the same reasoning as here (freedom, democracy, too Draconian etc). They have low mortality because they have an incredibly expensive healthcare system which each citizen pays for , often directly as well as through taxation - far more than we pay.

@Xiaoxiong - I know several people in the NHS. A number of hospitals are treating huge numbers of people who are dying due to suspected Covid. I expect our numbers will start to double daily soon.

Germany's healthcare system may not have been underfunded and cut to the bone for the past three decades

No, it hasn't, because people pay for it. I

Specifically. Not through regular taxation.

Why bother saying that you cant trust UK figures when you really cant trust anyones figures. They all have their own parameters for testing and that means that none show the full scale. UK isnt alone in that.

I've worked with loads of Germans and they are generally built like brick sh!t houses. I think this also has its part to play in the low death rate.

We are only testing hospital cases and those with strong link - despite being in the top 4 countries of testers.

Thus I actually think our death rate is quite low given how many are ending up in hospital

I don't think they are testing here without symptoms or contact reasons either. I am in Baden Würtemberg which has a very high infection rate but very low death rate. People seem incredibly relaxed about the whole thing.

Regards high number of sick days, here if you are ill with anything at all, you go to the doctor, get a sick note, which means you will get paid (through your health insurance) so it's worth being sick IYSWIM. Plus if you leave a job you will normally work out a notice period. A LOT of people here think nothing of going to the doctor and getting a sick note for this period.

Germany may be testing everyone and as such may be much more behind us in real terms

@Sunshine1239 agree.