Covid-19 Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread

[Barracker]

I thought some of us might find it useful to have a Mumsnet thread specifically dedicated to tracking, discussing and analysing the national and global Covid-19 data.

Direct sources of data include:
The UK govt daily update
and
worldometer global data

Today's UK figures have not yet been released. Yesterday was as follows:

UK
March 14th 2020:
Cases: 1,140
Deaths: 21

This is similar to Italy's figures on the date February 28th/29th.
Their March 1st data= cases:1577 deaths:41

I'll add today's numbers when they are released.

What time will we get figures today?

Senior staff would be there during a global pandemic!!!

Believe me.

Sky news just broke parliamentary coverage and announced 46 more deaths of amongst ‘those who had tested positive for Coronavirus’.

Seems like weird wording, as if people are now dying without being tested first. Hopefully just my paranoid interpretation and not indicative of anything.

@DuLANGDuLANGDuLANG I have thought this for a while, the figures just haven’t appeared to match up with what seems to be going on. And the figures in China too. I’m also hoping this isn’t true - for both countries.

The wording might be to differentiate from what may be happening in other countries, like Germany perhaps, where they don't record all people who die with corona as being a conona victim , but sometime attribute the death to the underlying health condition

Sky news just broke parliamentary coverage and announced 46 more deaths of amongst ‘those who had tested positive for Coronavirus’.

Seems like weird wording, as if people are now dying without being tested first. Hopefully just my paranoid interpretation and not indicative of anything.

The media are reporting Matt Hancock as saying that only patients in ICUI's are being tested. So is it the case that patients who die on other wards are not being tested, and therefore we don't know whether they had COVID-19?

ICU's, obviously.

Well in my trust we are testing symptomatic ward patients because how else could we effectively barrier nurse?

I’m glad to hear it, Carrot - hope you (and all our hospitals) have plenty of tests.

As this progresses though, some people will die whilst in their normal place of residence, perhaps because they are old and don’t want to be unnecessarily messed about (some of my elderly rellies are very much of this mindset!)

I hope we aren’t at that point yet (I hope we never get there!) but if/when we do, will those people be confirmed cases?
I don’t suppose anyone has the answers yet, and obviously the living must always be prioritised, but it does shake your faith in the numbers somewhat.

The total UK death toll now stands at 335 - our second highest rise in the space of a day. Italy's total exactly two weeks ago (9th March) was 463, so although we were on a par with them a couple of days ago, deaths in the UK now don't seem to be rising at the same speed as they did in Italy.

Italy's death rate rose to 631 on 10th March, so let's see where we are tomorrow.

That is very suspicious wording.

Carrot , DSiL was in hospital a week ago and when he developed a temperature suddenly he was tested. However it came down before the result was through so he would be in the clear stats. So it does seem testing in hospitals for people with symptoms is going on.

Sky news just broke parliamentary coverage and announced 46 more deaths of amongst ‘those who had tested positive for Coronavirus’.

It's a shame they didn't explain exactly what this means - poor reporting?

Yes a friend was tested in hospital and it came back negative.
But maybe it varies by hospital?

Very poor wording. I read somewhere recently that someone was diagnosed only at post-mortem stage. Perhaps all the deceased should be automatically tested, irrespective of whether they were tested when alive, to give us more accurate information?

It was literally a couple of sentences spoken over frozen Parliamentary coverage and then back to the live camera so it could just be an unfortunate accident of phrasing in a time pressured environment! I will now be scouting press coverage for similar weird phrasing...

I think those diagnosed at post-mortem stage are those who have probably had it for a while and self-isolating at home.
Then they take a turn for the worse and come in via ambulance.

When symptoms progesss it is acute. Some coming through covid resus are already in respiratory arrest by the time they get in.
The tests are taking a while to come through so they could have died before results are through.

The other thing is that it's people who have been tested, and they know there are many out haven't died and haven't been tested so that phrasing should prevent people trying to calculate a death rate which would be meaningless

This article is a Dr speaking out in the UK.

www.opendemocracy.net/en/opendemocracyuk/treating-the-crisis-we-are-being-treated-as-cannon-fodder/?

And yes lack of widespread testing means it is impossible to calculate a mortality rate in the UK. Mortality rates are higher in countries with poorer health services.

From the Mirrors Live Coverage (posted at 16:44):

Full list of the hospitals at which the 46 newly reported deaths occurred

The patients died at hospitals run by the following NHS Trusts:

Luton and Dunstable University Hospital NHS Foundation Trust: One

Princess Alexandra Hospital NHS Trust: One

West Hertfordshire Hospitals NHS Trust: One

St Georges University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust: Two

Lewisham and Greenwich NHS Trust: Two

Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust: One

Kingston Hospital NHS Foundation Trust: One

University College London Hospital NHS Trust: Two

Royal Free London NHS Trust: Four

Barts Healthcare NHS Trust: One

Guys and St Thomas’ NHS Trust: Two

North Middlesex University Hospital NHS Trust: One

Epsom and St. Helier NHS Trust: Three

Worcester Acute Hospitals NHS Trust: One

Royal Wolverhampton NHS Trust: Two

The Dudley Group of Hospitals NHS Trust: One

Shrewsbury and Telford NHS Trust: One

South Warwickshire NHS Trust: One

Newcastle Upon Tyne Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust: Three

Sunderland and South Tyneside NHS Foundation Trust: Two

Tameside & Glossop Integrated Care NHS Foundation Trust: Four

Bolton NHS Foundation Trust: One

Salford Royal NHS Foundation Trust: Three

Wirral University Teaching Hospital NHS Foundation Trust: One

Hampshire Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust: Two

Royal Cornwall Hospital NHS Trust: Two

That makes sense, Carrot - thanks! Please take good care of yourself, you and all your colleagues are my absolute heros.

Only 154 new cases today, can that be right? www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

I wonder if they've stopped testing in some areas?

Looks like the wording the Sky news presenter used is more or less the same as today’s NHS statement, as reported by Mirror live (screenshot).

Carrot’s suggestion that some people may be arriving and dying before the test results come back (48 hours?) is the most logical. Those deaths would appear in the following days total or even the day after that.

I think it's more likely that there are issues with reporting than that they have stopped testing.

The good news is that the number of deaths in Italy is down again for the second day in a row. Hopefully they are starting to turn the corner now.

Sarah Worldometer has UK deaths at 54, but that’s neither today’s total (46) nor yesterday’s (48) so I have no idea. Made a screen shot of the bit where it says 154 new cases and 54 deaths though.

Yesterday’s figures are still up on the other link, made a screenshot of those too. It’s not possible that we’ve fallen 500 new cases in a day without being 14 days into a change in behaviour (eg social distancing or total lock down) so something has gone awry. Maybe they’ve just put the wrong country’s figures in our column!