Covid-19 Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread

[Barracker]

I thought some of us might find it useful to have a Mumsnet thread specifically dedicated to tracking, discussing and analysing the national and global Covid-19 data.

Direct sources of data include:
The UK govt daily update
and
worldometer global data

Today's UK figures have not yet been released. Yesterday was as follows:

UK
March 14th 2020:
Cases: 1,140
Deaths: 21

This is similar to Italy's figures on the date February 28th/29th.
Their March 1st data= cases:1577 deaths:41

I'll add today's numbers when they are released.

Is it 46 England, 54 UK? (Including Wales and Scotland)

That would make sense yes! The 46 are from NHS England

The running total for the U.K. is now 335, 303 (England) 16 (Wales) 14 (Scotland) & 2 (NI) but only the England total for today has been mentioned on the news, still waiting for the others (at least 8 according to Worldometer). If the number of new cases on that chart is accurate, we must have had a testing fail (results backing up in labs if still being done on front line?)

Waiting is excruciating!

Government website has now updated for Monday:

Sky news have been saying that we are ahead in deaths and cases than Italy at the same stage. I was feeling optimistic, but not so much now.

I think he will announce lockdown at 8.30.

The curve on the confirmed cases graph doesn’t look good.

Lockdown is inevitable. Delaying it is futile.
Medics are going down with the virus all over the world.

Just get ON with it Boris!

(I expect they were waiting for today’s bill to go through, to give them powers to enforce a lockdown?)

Some graphs and stats here.

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/23/coronavirus-how-do-italy-and-the-uk-compare

• • • DAILY UPDATE * * * Monday MARCH 23rd

Total UK cases: 6650
New UK cases: 967
Total UK Deaths: 335
New UK Deaths: 54

Two days ago we went through the 200k case barrier globally.

It looks like we will hit 400k tomorrow.

If the numbers did slow a bit over the weekend I'm sure we'll see a massive jump in 10-14 days after all the dickheads out all weekend in big groups/parties/parks etc

@DuLANGDuLANGDuLANG can you link where you got that hospital data? I can't find it. It's interesting to see that hospitals pretty much across the country are already impacted.

I found the list of today’s deaths in hospital trusts on the Mirror Live Coronavirus feed but it was at 16.44 and I can’t seem to scroll back that far now!

I copied and pasted the list into google and came up with a number of hits on local news sites, so I presume it was part of a press release by NHS England this afternoon?

Here it is on a site for Cambridge: www.cambridge-news.co.uk/news/uk-world-news/further-46-more-people-died-17967289

And here is the feed where I originally found it but can’t get back to that point on the timeline: www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/coronavirus-live-updates-uk-advice-21733928

Will have a poke around and see if I can find where the NHS press releases go out from...

I found this for all England deaths up to today, listed by trust.
They say it’s compiled from government figures but I don’t know if those figures are released somewhere we can view them directly?

www.hsj.co.uk/news/coronavirus-deaths-mapped-nine-more-trusts-report-first-fatality/7027212.article

HSJ is the ‘Health Service Journal’ and is aimed at NHS professionals, so should be an accurate source.

Sky news have been saying that we are ahead in deaths and cases than Italy at the same stage. I was feeling optimistic, but not so much now.

Sky News have got that wrong - we've been two weeks behind Italy and were exactly level with them a few days ago (on 233 deaths). However, our number of deaths has since been increasing slower than Italy's.

That is my impression utterly. Younger population affected London vs Lombardy ?

A 13 year old girl died in Panama

www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/mar/23/coronavirus-live-updates-uk-us-italy-germany-europe-outbreak-cases-meetings-bans-update-latest-news

Figures for the U.K. are in, not good.

Posted early!
As of 9am on 24 March 2020, a total of 90,436 people have been tested, of which 82,359 were confirmed negative and 8,077 were confirmed positive. 422 patients in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus (COVID-19) have died.

So 87 deaths in 24 hours?

And 54 yesterday.

And 48 the day before.

My heart hurts. Cried over a news story for the first time this morning.

87 new deaths is awful

I really want to be wrong, but the pessimist in me thinks the next few days will dwarf those figures.

Some of the increase might be the cases missed at weekend recording catching up?

So assuming we're two weeks behind Italy, this is how we compare...

Italy on 7th March: 233
UK on 21st March: 233

Italy on 8th March: 366
UK on 22nd March: 281

Italy on 9th March: 463
UK on 23rd March: 335

Italy on 10th March: 631
UK on 24th March: 422

Italy on 11th March: 827
UK:

If the numbers did slow a bit over the weekend I'm sure we'll see a massive jump in 10-14 days after all the dickheads out all weekend in big groups/parties/parks etc

I haven't bothered looking at case numbers because IMO they're simply not testing enough. Whereas I would hope the death figures are more reflective of the real picture - looking backwards in time, like the light from a distant star.

So my concern is that the hard-of-thinking look at our [currently better than Italy] death figures and conclude that the UK are somehow magically better, or more resistant, or something, and therefore they can be reckless and slack and carry on gathering in giant crowds.

When, in fact, there's a roughly 4-week lag in death rates. So a "better" death rate now means that people did something sensible a month ago. It's about 2.5 weeks since Crufts, 1.5 weeks since Cheltenham, various marathons and St Patrick day celebrations. And mere days since the ridiculous sudden-outdoor-fitness-fanatics mass conventions of this weekend.

I fear we'll be seeing a series of lurching spikes in death rates

So my concern is that the hard-of-thinking look at our [currently better than Italy] death figures

But death rates are all we have to go on, since in the UK we're not widely testing. Comparing death rates since Italy's first fatality and ours is a simplistic way to see what trajectory we might be following and is also a way to prepare mentally for what might lie ahead.

Yes I agree Theelements. It’s so sad.
I really hope more people wake up now.
Stay home and save a life - either your own or someone else’s.

• • • DAILY UPDATE * * * Tuesday MARCH 24th

Total UK cases: 8077
New UK cases: 1427
Total UK Deaths: 422
New UK Deaths: 87