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Covid-19 Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread

968 replies

Barracker · 15/03/2020 14:42

I thought some of us might find it useful to have a Mumsnet thread specifically dedicated to tracking, discussing and analysing the national and global Covid-19 data.

Direct sources of data include:
The UK govt daily update
worldometer global data

Today's UK figures have not yet been released. Yesterday was as follows:

March 14th 2020:
Cases: 1,140
Deaths: 21

This is similar to Italy's figures on the date February 28th/29th.
Their March 1st data= cases:1577 deaths:41

I'll add today's numbers when they are released.

OP posts:
Barracker · 22/03/2020 22:35

MARCH 22nd

Total UK cases: 5683
New UK cases: 665
Total UK Deaths: 281
New UK Deaths: 48

OP posts:
EthelMayFergus · 22/03/2020 22:40

Thanks utterlybutterly8, I was just looking to see if we're still on the same trajectory as Italy. That's quite a difference.

Bufferingkisses · 22/03/2020 22:40

Has anyone got an updated comparison chart? Sorry, I am afraid I don't know how to pull these up myself. My instinct is that things are, possibly, changing a little (accepting it is early days in any case) but I can't find a graph to support/refute this idea.

Barracker · 22/03/2020 22:42

When I started the thread a week ago today, the UK had lost 21 people.
260 further people have lost their lives to this virus in the last week.

My thoughts are with their families and loved ones tonight.

OP posts:
EthelMayFergus · 22/03/2020 22:44

And thanks Barracker for the thread and daily statistics.

ScrimpshawTheSecond · 22/03/2020 22:48

I'm watching avidly - as is everyone, I'm sure - for all glimmers of hope, utterly.

Remember to consider the lag. There is roughly 14 days incubation, 14 days infection period. Today's deaths are infections picked up/passed on a month ago.

This will work as infections fall, too - for a period the deaths will continue to rise despite stringent measures being taken, social distancing, etc. We shouldn't be disheartened although it might seem that all the measures aren't having an effect - they will be, only it won't show immediately.

DuLANGDuLANGDuLANG · 22/03/2020 22:55

I know it’s only one day and that we have to see a trend to be certain, but it still gives me a glimmer of hope that we’re not going to suffer from this as severely as Italy has.

I hope you are right! The difference could be that our health system is holding up a little better (or that the poorliest patients are spread wider, allowing the poorlier people more attention).
If/when hospitals are no longer able to accommodate the 20% of cases needing extra care, that’s when the sharp escalation in deaths is likely to occur.

Unfortunately, as we aren’t extensively testing, we can only watch the fatalities and compare with news/twitter reports from the frontline.

Up in Greater Manchester the death rate is currently comparatively low, but with confirmed cases in prisons and care homes, the storm may soon interrupt the calm.

As Barracker says, thoughts are with all those who have lost loved ones today (and especially thinking of those who have lost their mum, or who have mums in critical care Flowers)

MrsTerryPratchett · 22/03/2020 23:00

Place marking.

Polkadotties · 22/03/2020 23:07

Thank you for the stats. Really interesting

Blewbell · 22/03/2020 23:08

It's Sunday. The NHS is horrendous at reporting at the best of times. Watch that number jump tomorrow.

Barracker · 22/03/2020 23:36

I think Blewbell has it, although I wish it were not so.

If we consider how dramatically cases today were also lower than yesterday then it seems more likely that a number of trusts missed the reporting deadline on a weekend.
There's no obvious reason why both cases and deaths should show similar falls on the same day. Cases relates to people newly diagnosed today. Deaths are people diagnosed days or weeks ago. They shouldn't mirror each other's direction of travel without a time lag.

I'm braced for tomorrow to continue the rise. I want to be wrong though.

OP posts:
uncomfortablydumb53 · 23/03/2020 02:18

Thank you for this morbidly fascinating info
I'm a pragramatist and trust the science

uncomfortablydumb53 · 23/03/2020 02:23

OP Barracker I meant to tag

SchadenfreudePersonified · 23/03/2020 02:25

Thank you for the figures - I'm placemaking. I am worried sick about this (as are we all, I'm sure), and in some ways just don't want to know what's happening, but in others, just have to keep track.

GachaBread · 23/03/2020 02:58
SchadenfreudePersonified · 23/03/2020 03:04

Thank you nellodee - excellent article.

The80sweregreat · 23/03/2020 03:14

Place marking for the figures.
I do wish people would take this seriously

uncomfortablydumb53 · 23/03/2020 03:36

There are many who take no heed of guidelines let alone the hard of thinking and generally irresponsible
It's horrifying
I think Govt need to be blunt and say
Stay inside or risk your life... They simply don't care about others

FATEdestiny · 23/03/2020 04:01

What's the deal with Russia?

I appreciate they are clearly not reporting cases, but why report some but not the full picture? You'd think would just be refusal to report data and there be nothing.

hopefulhalf · 23/03/2020 05:58

Also on an intensive care unit the senior staff won't be there at the weekend to withdrawal care, which is how most die.

Utterlybutterly8 · 23/03/2020 06:55

I'm braced for tomorrow to continue the rise. I want to be wrong though.

Yes, let’s see what happens today. Hopefully it was a genuine divergence yesterday and not just a blip or weekend reporting issue!

Two weeks ago today the death toll in Italy stood at 463. Hopefully we will still be some way behind that.

I hope you are right! The difference could be that our health system is holding up a little better

I’m not sure about that - isn’t Italy meant to have a better health system than us?

Utterlybutterly8 · 23/03/2020 06:57

Also on an intensive care unit the senior staff won't be there at the weekend to withdrawal care, which is how most die.


JeanJackeys · 23/03/2020 07:03

Thank you for this

Utterlybutterly8 · 23/03/2020 13:51

I know it's a DM link (sorry!) but I couldn't see an alternative story anywhere else.

Could this be a chink of light at the end of the tunnel - or do they just have less efficient reporting systems on weekends like us?

DuLANGDuLANGDuLANG · 23/03/2020 14:57

Two weeks into the lockdown is pretty much when we would be expecting Italy’s situation to start improving. It takes that long for all the burgeoning infections to become symptomatic and play out (hence the 14 days family isolation rule in U.K.)
Fingers crossed this becomes a significant drop off soon. It will convince other countries to go for lock down too.

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