Covid-19 Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread

[Barracker]

I thought some of us might find it useful to have a Mumsnet thread specifically dedicated to tracking, discussing and analysing the national and global Covid-19 data.

Direct sources of data include:
The UK govt daily update
and
worldometer global data

Today's UK figures have not yet been released. Yesterday was as follows:

UK
March 14th 2020:
Cases: 1,140
Deaths: 21

This is similar to Italy's figures on the date February 28th/29th.
Their March 1st data= cases:1577 deaths:41

I'll add today's numbers when they are released.

[VivaLeBeaver]

It looks like NZ are enforcing an even stricter lockdown than we are. I read that you’re only allowed out for food shopping and if you’re an Essential worker going to work. The supermarkets have good,plastic screens at checkouts and strictly enforcing standing apart while queuing.

It’ll be interesting to see if they contain it better. Though I guess it’s also a less densely populated country which should help. But they still have big cities?

[borntobequiet]

NZ understands biosecurity, a lot better than we do.
More or Less Coronavirus special
www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m000gwy8

[Utterlybutterly8]

Is anyone else encouraged by the news that Imperial has now said 5,700 deaths is the best case scenario if the lockdown measures stay in place? Of course that’s still 5,700 too many, but it’s a significant downgrade on their previous estimates.

www.standard.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-uk-death-toll-lockdown-china-imperial-college-a4400431.html

To put this into context, according to the article, during the winter of 2017-18 26,000 people died from seasonal flu.

They’re predicting far more deaths in Italy and Spain though compared to the UK:

“The statisticians’ best estimate for the total number of deaths is 5,700 in Britain, 28,000 deaths in Italy and 46,000 in Spain.”

[midgebabe]

Sirvix I am not sure the early "treatment" is helping reduce death rates in other countries. I understood it was use of early detection , isolation and contact tracing to reduce spread that was the rational

There is no particular treatment, but if you isolate every victim the moment they show symptoms then you reduce spread within the household

[VivaLeBeaver]

Scary to see they think Spain will be twice as bad as Italy!

[Utterlybutterly8]

Scary to see they think Spain will be twice as bad as Italy!

Yes. I’m also curious as to why the figures for Spain and Italy are predicted to be so much worse than the UK, given that everyone has said we’re 14-16 days behind Italy in particular.

[BirdandSparrow]

I thought 20,000 was the figure they'd be pleased with in the UK?

[itsgettingweird]

That's interesting fate it also appears that 2018 had a higher year.
Would be interesting to go back over a decade (if you have time!)
2017 and 19 seem on lad with each other.

[LivinLaVidaLoki]

The way I understand it @BirdandSparrow is that the 5700 is the absolute best case but to keep it under 20k would be the overall aim.
Does that make sense?

[BirdandSparrow]

Ah ok, I see.

[Utterlybutterly8]

From another thread - this is from yesterday’s Times:

"Britain is on course for an estimated 5,700 deaths from coronavirus, far lower than originally predicted, experts believe. The country will avoid the 260,000 fatalities once feared if it keeps on the same path seen in China, statisticians at Imperial College London have calculated. They emphasised that this did not imply that the fears of mass deaths were alarmist, but that the government strategy was working.

“Our work shows that social distancing is working against Covid-19 as an effective parachute across multiple countries,” Tom Pike, of Imperial College, said. “That’s no reason for us to cut away our parachutes when we’re still way above the ground.”

[LivinLaVidaLoki]

Thank you utterly

[ScrimpshawTheSecond]

Thanks, utterly.

willdoit, the reason I am not paying much attention to infection is that the UK are - as far as I can tell- barely testing anyone. So the figures we have for infection seem to me to be potentially so under recorded as to be useless.
That may change as the policy is now to start ramping up testing - hopefully then we'll get a clearer picture.

[Reastie]

The country will avoid the 260,000 fatalities once feared if it keeps on the same path seen in China, statisticians at Imperial College London have calculated.

Surely that projection is unhelpful in predicting our fatalities as China had such stricter policies to reduce spread. We are doing more of a lockdown like Italy or Spain rather than China so our figures will likely be closer to theirs than China. Or have I misunderstood something?

[diddl]

I've been looking at the figures.

Am in Germany & from yesterday to today there has been an enormous leap in the amount of people who are critical.

In the 20s yesterday, more than 1,500 today

[BirdandSparrow]

We are doing more of a lockdown like Italy or Spain and in some respects not even as much as a lockdown as those countries. Schools for instance are not open at all in either of those countries and in Spain we've not been allowed out to exercise at any point. Spain has just decreed the shut down of all but essential production as well. Spain has also no allowed the loophole of bars and restaurants open but for take away, which I think the UK does/did?

[Reastie]

@BirdandSparrow yes we have take aways still here. A fair few cafes/restaurants/pubs near me now offer a take away service to gain a bit in income whilst they cannot open as normal. So, if anything, our figures are likely to be worse?!

[Chersfrozenface]

Imperial College's 5,700 deaths looks very optimistic compared with a study by a group of respected organisations.

"A mitigation strategy aimed at slowing the spread of coronavirus could lead to at least 35,000-70,000 excess deaths over one year, find researchers from UCL, University College London Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, the University of Cambridge, and Health Data Research UK."

This number is for excess deaths, not just deaths from COVID-19, but they would all be deaths which would not have taken place during the year were it not for the coronavirus.

Press release from UCL here www.ucl.ac.uk/news/2020/mar/new-estimates-excess-mortality-covid-19-suggest-stronger-suppression-measures-needed

[peridito]

Does anyone have any views on

a) low percentage of total tests showing as positive

and

b)the significance ,if any ,of UK Gov adding " in hospital " when quoting nos of deaths .

[NotDavidTennant]

Is anyone else encouraged by the news that Imperial has now said 5,700 deaths is the best case scenario if the lockdown measures stay in place? Of course that’s still 5,700 too many, but it’s a significant downgrade on their previous estimates.

It is misleading to say that Imperial have changed their predictions. This new work is by an engineer at Imperial who, as far I can tell, has no relationship with the Imperial epidemiologists who have published earlier predictions.

[BirdandSparrow]

www.abc.es/sociedad/abci-coronavirus-espana-directo-coronavirus-infectado-575000-personas-mundo-202003290633_directo.html#vso=Cifras&vmc=web&vli=Coronavirus_en_Espa%C3%B1a&vca=web-push 838 deaths in the last 24 hours in Spain, 6 more than in the previous 24 hours I think (832)

[FATEdestiny]

a) low percentage of total tests showing as positive

I'm interested in this too. 85% negative and these are people who have symptoms.

In early days they were testing symptoms + been to China or in contact with a positive individual. So at that point I'd imagine a lot of negative because only mild symptoms were tested. I know if I'd been in contact with a confirmed positive in early days, or come from an infected area, I'd be very keen to get a test myself for reassurance.

Later tests were in hospital only, so its/reasonable to assume only those with very serious symptoms were tested. Someone earlier in the thread suggested there is evidence of false negatives - but I don't have a source for that to hand.

I also wonder about repeat testing. So someone tested negative 3 weeks ago, goes to hospital and is tested again to then get a positive.

[Utterlybutterly8]

It is misleading to say that Imperial have changed their predictions. This new work is by an engineer at Imperial who, as far I can tell, has no relationship with the Imperial epidemiologists who have published earlier predictions.

Oh, I see what you mean

[QuentinWinters]

Given it takes 3-5 weeks for people to go from infection to death and that we started lockdown on Tuesday I can't see how the 5400 works.
Even if we stay at a static death rate of 260 a day from now for 2 weeks, that would be 3640 deaths, plus the 1000 that have already happened.

I'm also not sure how that's compatible with an expectation that the majority of us will get it. Surely that means that more people will die, just later.

Unless in fact it isn't as dangerous as feared and more of us than expected have already been infected?

5400 very optimistic but let's hope they are right.