Covid-19 Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread

[Barracker]

I thought some of us might find it useful to have a Mumsnet thread specifically dedicated to tracking, discussing and analysing the national and global Covid-19 data.

Direct sources of data include:
The UK govt daily update
and
worldometer global data

Today's UK figures have not yet been released. Yesterday was as follows:

UK
March 14th 2020:
Cases: 1,140
Deaths: 21

This is similar to Italy's figures on the date February 28th/29th.
Their March 1st data= cases:1577 deaths:41

I'll add today's numbers when they are released.

Unless in fact it isn't as dangerous as feared and more of us than expected have already been infected?

Let's hope so.

Does anyone know when the NHS Nightingale Hospital is expected to open?

@FATEdestiny - I know ,you and another poster have also raised it .I think it's just us 3 who are wondering .

This docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1eTKeK9vRxgw0KhvKxPCaDrfaHnxQP-n9TsLzsEymviY/htmlview#

shows the percentage of tests proving positive on a daily basis ,with about 70% as negative .

I can only guess that testing in hospitals is of all respiratory cases and also that multiple tests are carried out per patient . Early ones show negative and then eventually one shows positive ?

And I'd forgotten until now - presumably 2 negative tests required before a patient can be classified as recovered ?

I'm also not sure how that's compatible with an expectation that the majority of us will get it. Surely that means that more people will die, just later.

Unless in fact it isn't as dangerous as feared and more of us than expected have already been infected?

All they have done in this 'new' study is to try to fit the data from a bunch of countries to that of China and because it can be done, have concluded that everyone is on the same trajectory as China. There is no underlying epidemiological model to it.

The first author is a Professor of Microengineering whose main area of research seems to be developing sensors for space probes and the second author is a cardiologist who runs a health think-tank in the US.

The media are irresponsible to have given these predictions any weight.

One problem is that the tests used have low sensitivity so are likely to show false negatives. (Though very unlikely to show false positives.) Because if the shortage of tests people arguably haven't been tested often enough; one negative test in someone in hospital with severe symptoms, or in the community (earlier in month) after sustained contact with an infected person doesn't 'mean' all that much. So testing properly would mean administering more tests if the first is found to be negative.

Thanks NotDavid - interesting background information.

Does anyone know when the NHS Nightingale Hospital is expected to open?

They are advertising now for four shifts in a row.

diddl - I've seen a couple of suggestions that those originally infected in Germany were people returning from ski holidays and therefore likely young and fit. Maybe infections in an older demographic are now coming through?

Nightingale is expected to open this week, I think?

And Birmingham and Manchester in two weeks time?

@FATEdestiny - I know ,you and another poster have also raised it .I think it's just us 3 who are wondering.

I asked this way back in the thread (I think it was this thread?) and someone who works for the NHS gave an interesting answer. Unfortunately I didn't read it properly as I was distracted at the time, and now can't find it!

By using the world o meter table you can rank each column. Deaths per million of the population and also helpfully the date of first death gives an interesting view of how rapidly the virus is spreading through each country. Although I seem to remember the first UK death was on cruise ship but since the ship is included in the table I don’t think they would have recorded it twice.
Had a long trawl though ONS site and 2018s figures are interesting. January 2018 recorded 15k deaths above the average and the whole year was significantly higher. It’s funny how there was no mass panic back then. Presumably it was down to seasonal flu and was effecting the co-morbidity groups so not really exciting news back then.
My big hope is that the ramping up of infection control will have a positive effect in future years to prevent deaths during big flu years.

Sorry I meant date of the first case. Using the last two columns suggest we have had a much slower growth of the curve initially. If you cast your minds back the weather was horrendous through February. Lots of flooding and travel disrupting. Post Christmas poverty and low socialisation would probably have this effect. It appears that the virus entered the health care population very early so there has been massive transmission rate in hospitals etc. Perfectly normal for a highly infectious droplet born virus. Normal hospital infection control is not the best.
As the weather has improved and finances got back to normal people have increased social contact and allowed more communal spread.
I think lockdown was strategic in view of the forecasted warm weather last week. They knew that after the winter we have had the first spell of good weather would massively increase social contact.

Not good news on U.K. death rate trend and what it means for current predictions/projections:

mobile.twitter.com/whippletom/status/1244230267096555520

@Lumene I think the change in reporting of deaths over the last few days has an impact on that - which is why one day was artifically low

1228 deaths in the uk now.

Is that another 209 then? :(

@Utterlybutterly8 ah ,I've found this reply

@Utterlybutterly8 in my hospital everyone who needs admission and has a fever, cough or shortness of breath gets tested. So sometimes it’s obviously a urine infection or whatever and you still swab. But there are lots of people who we have an index of suspicion for (fever and productive cough say) who turn out to have something else (flu, pneumonia). We’re not testing asymptomatic people but I would say we have a low index of suspicion to test, as it’s really important not to miss any atypical positive people as we don’t want to spread it around the wards.

so I guess that's the answer

It's nearly time for a second thread. I'm sure this one will fill quickly now the new figures have been announced.

Yes another 209🙁

Thanks @peridito - you're clearly better at searching than I am! I think that answer makes sense so hospital staff know exactly what they're dealing with.

Although if they're testing patients coming into hospitals, why aren't NHS staff being tested?

As of 9am 29 March, a total of 127,737 have been tested:

108,215 negative.
19,522 positive.
1,228 have sadly died.

Less than yesterday in cases and deaths though

• • • DAILY UPDATE * * * Sunday MARCH 29th

Total UK cases: 19,522
New UK cases: 2,433
Total UK Deaths: 1,228
New UK Deaths: 209

The rate of increase in positive tests has reduced again too.

Thread 2 is ready to go when this fills up.

THREAD 2

From the cold light of data and being in the rapid growth phase, I don't think those numbers today are too bad. We are likely to see similar numbers for a few weeks yet, and worse.